Economic Benefits Resulting From Irrigation Water Use: Theory and an Application to Groundwater Use

Traditional economic analysis using a crop production function approachhas assumed that all variable factors, including irrigation water, arefully employed in the crop production process. However, this paper firstdemonstrates that economic benefits of irrigation water areoverestimated when the crop production function, and therefore theirrigation water demand function, is expressed in terms of irrigationwater supplied, rather than consumptive irrigation water use. Second,the paper demonstrates that the magnitude of the estimation bias isproportional to the rate of irrigation water losses through leaching,runoff and evaporation. Consequently, the model misspecification problemwould lead to increased irrigation water use and reduce incentives forfarmers to adopt improved irrigation technologies.     

Non-financial hurdles for human capital accumulation: landownership in Korea under Japanese rule

This study examined the relationship between land inequality and human capital accumulation in the Korean colonial period by using a panel data set from 1934 to 1942. Evidence of the adverse relationship between land inequality and the accumulation of human capital has thus far only been presented by using data from Western countries and from countries that achieved industrialization not under colonial occupation but by their own economic interest. The presented findings thus contribute to the body of knowledge on this topic and confirm the generalizability of the Galor model by analyzing the unique Korean context under Japanese rule in the early twentieth century. It is the first study to present evidence that inequality in landownership had an adverse effect on the level of public education in the Korean colonial period (i.e., it is a non-financial hurdle for human capital accumulation). By using a fixed effects model and a fixed effects two-stage least squares model with an instrumental variable estimation, this study exploits variation in inequality in land concentration across regions in Korea, accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity across these regions. Overall, this analysis establishes a highly significant adverse effect of land inequality on education in the Korean colonial period.     

The price effect of allowing non-pharmacy outlets to sell OTC drugs in Korea

By the amendment of the Pharmaceutical Affairs Act in 2012, non-pharmacy outlets (confined to 24-hour convenience stores) in Korea were permitted to sell 13 over-the-counter (OTC) drugs. This article empirically examines the effect of the regulatory reform on OTC drug prices. To do so, we use county-level price data of 7 OTC drugs for the years of 2012 and 2013. Among them, 2 OTC drugs are available at non-pharmacy outlets due to the deregulation, and the remaining 5 are still only available at pharmacies. Employing a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, we find that after the regulatory reform, prices of the 2 OTC drugs increased by only 1.1% while those of the rest 5 increased by 6.5%. This result has implications for the government’s policy of designating non-pharmacy outlets that can sell OTC drugs from the viewpoint of consumer welfare.     

The swing voter's curse with adversarial preferences

We analyze voting behavior in a large electorate in which voters have adversarial state-contingent preferences with incomplete information about the state of the world. We show that one type of voter can suffer from the swing voter's curse à la Feddersen and Pesendorfer [The swing voter's curse, Amer. Econ. Rev. 86 (1996) 408-424], and go on to characterize the symmetric Nash equilibria of this model under different parameter values. We prove that unlike settings with nonadversarial preferences, there are equilibria in which in one state of the world, a minority-preferred candidate almost surely wins the election and thus the election may fail to correctly aggregate information. Indeed, we show that the fraction of the electorate dissatisfied with the result can be as large as .     

Relationship between oil price and exchange rate by FDA and copula

This article investigates the relationship between daily crude oil prices and exchange rates. Functional data analysis is used to show the clustering pattern of exchange rates and oil prices over the time period through high dimensional visualizations. We select exchange rates for important currencies related to crude oil prices by using the objective Bayesian variable selection method. The selected sample data exhibits non-normal distribution with fat tails and skewness. Under the non-normality of the return series, we use copula functions that do not require to assume the bivariate normality to consider marginal distribution. In particular, our study applies the popular and powerful statistical methods such as Gaussian copula partial correlations and Gaussian copula marginal regression. We find evidence of significant dependence for all considered pairs, except for the Mexican peso-Brent. Our empirical results also show that the rise in the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price returns is associated with a depreciation of the US dollar.     

Government size,government debt and globalization

This article empirically investigates the effect of globalization on government size and debt. Using panel heterogeneous cointegration techniques to a panel of developing and developed countries, it finds that globalization reduces government size and debt. In terms of components of globalization, government size is found to increase with trade openness but decreases with financial, social and political globalization. On the other hand, government debt increases with financial and trade openness but decreases with social and political globalization. The evidence is robust to different estimation methods and different samples. Our data also indicate unidirectional causality running from globalization measures to government size and debt.     

Optimal forecast evaluation: fertilizer prices

High fertilizer price volatility makes production planning and inventory management difficult, so accurate fertilizer price forecasts would be beneficial. This article evaluates commercial forecasts for urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices based on forecast accuracy and optimal forecast properties. Most forecasts pass the tests, but forecasts for the US New Orleans urea and the US Gulf DAP markets, in particular, do not and thus show potential to be improved.     

Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case.     

Competition in the Korean Internet Portal Market: Network Effects, Profit, and Market Efficiency

Internet portals serve as platforms for coordinating advertisements, content, and user markets. We model portal structure with South Korean market data to explain network effects and other competition factors. We also analyze network effects on profit and market efficiency. The results indicate a negative network effect from banner advertisements in the user market, which is countered by a network effect from content provision. In the advertising market, the network effect from user demand is positively identified, which explains profit making through increased user visits. Furthermore, we show that network effects due to market concentration result in increases in consumer surplus.     

How credible is the North Korean threat?

We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non‐credible.