Estimating statistical properties of political economic decisions

Revelation of criteria implicit in setting policy is addressed in a political economic framework that includes identification and estimation of unknown parameters in the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty. Policy formation is viewed as an optimization process under which the government maximizes a criterion function subject to market constraints. A method for estimating political criterion function weights and their associated standard errors over multiple time periods is presented. The approach is illustrated with an empirical example from Japanese rice and wheat trade policy.     

The measurement of entry rates: Recondiseration and resolution

This paper extends the recent analysis of Audretsch and Fritsch on entry rates, and suggests a resolution to the possible policy confusion which they discuss. British data also show very different results for the determinants of entry depending on whether the ecological or labour market entry rate is used. It is shown that, in addition to the static, size-distribution effect discussed by Audretsch and Fritsch, there are dynamic factors at work which may lead to this result. However, there need be no conflict in policy signals arising from this, because the labour market approach can be shown to be a superior measure of entry rates where spatial analysis is undertaken.     

Implications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts on World Wheat Trade: A Stochastic, Dynamic Analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long‐run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year‐to‐year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20‐year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years. Le progrès des prévisions saisonnières du climat a une portée économique pour l'agriculture internationale. Un modèle stochastique et dynamique de l'économie internationale du blé est développé afin d'estimer les effets potentiels des prévisions saisonnières du climat sur la production de blé de divers pays, leurs exportations et le commerce mondial. Les études précédentes ont généralement ignoré les aspects stochastiques et dynamiques des effets liés à l'utilisation des prévisions climatiques. Cette étude montre l'importance de ces aspects. En particulier avec le libre échange l'utilisation de ces prévisions aboutit à l'augmentation des excédents dans tous les pays exportateurs. En fait, il apparaît que les producteurs accaparent une grande part de l'excédent économique créé par l'utilisation de ces prévisions. De plus, les dimensions stochastiques suggèrent que bien que les bénéfices à long terme des prévisions climatiques puissent être substantiels, on s'attend à des variations considérables d'une année à l'autre dans la distribution des bénéfices entre les producteurs et les consommateurs. Il est possible qu'un indicateur économique varie à la baisse sur 20 ans eus fonction de la séquence de variation climatique.     

Flexible adoption of conservation agriculture principles: practices of care and the management of crop residue in Australian mixed farming systems

This paper applies concepts from the sociological literature on ‘practices of care’ to investigate why flexibility is important for farmers in the adoption of conservation agriculture (CA) principles, and, crucially, how farmers integrate CA principles into their existing practices. Drawing on qualitative data from six mixed farming regions in South Eastern Australia, the paper discusses how a specific dimension of CA – crop residue retention – is integrated in the context of biophysical and material challenges, and practices of stubble burning. Farmers viewed burning as increasingly incompatible with their desire to be recognised as good land managers. Yet, shifting to full crop residue retention was perceived as posing challenges for their farming system and compromising farmers’ capacity to manage seasonal variations in pests, weeds and crop residue loads. As a consequence, farmers used burning as a key practice of care to deal in a flexible way with an uncertain and variable farming environment, and to make crop residue retention workable in the context of their farming system. In concluding, the paper argues that the significance of flexibility in farm-level integration of CA principles requires a shift in analytical focus from adoption barriers to practices of care.     

Market versus Corporate Structure in Plant-Level Innovation Performance

This paper examines the effect which market and corporate structure have on the extent of innovation for a sample of circa 300 manufacturing plants located in Scotland. Innovation is defined as the introduction of a commercially significant new product at the establishment level. The theoretical model of Geroski (1990) is extended to incorporate plant- level variables such as size, multiplant operation, the presence of R&D facilities and external/indigenous ownership. A distinction is made between the direct and indirect effects of these variables. Negative binomial estimations indicate that corporate structure influences are more important in determining the number of innovations than market structure and barrier to entry variables. Plant size, foreign ownership and the presence of R&D are all positively associated with innovation. Direct effects greatly outweigh indirect effects. Tobit estimations on the number of innovations per employee support the findings of Acs and Audretsch (1988) that smaller enterprises are more innovation intensive than larger enterprises, at least up to a limit of around 1200 employees. The positive effect of R&D arises principally from increasing the probability of a plant becoming an innovator, rather than from making a plant more innovation intensive. By contrast, the importance of size lies principally in encouraging further innovations among plants which are already innovators, but less than proportionately with the increase in employment size.     

The Ethical and Economic Implications of Smoking in Enclosed Public Facilities: A Resolution of Conflicting Rights

Smokers and nonsmokers possess equal rights but those rights conflict with each other in the use of shared facilities. Medical research has established that smoking harms not only those who use the product but also those who are passively exposed to it. Laws and private regulation of smoking in shared facilities have resulted in the segregation of smokers from nonsmokers to an outright ban of tobacco use. Such controls have provided unsatisfactory results to both groups. An acceptable ethical solution, based on reduction of harm and compensation, can be derived by applying Moral Audit principles, supported by economic analysis, which does not unduly curtail the rights of both parties as to the use of tobacco products.     

Robot futures: science fiction and futures studies methodologies in action

What would constitute a robot identity? Would a robot developing an identity be consciousness of the processes that could/would shape its identity? This essay explores these questions by considering images common to both, futures studies and science fiction—in particular, the now famous anti-capitalist demonstrations in Seattle in November 1999.