The welfare state after the great recession

The economic crisis has given rise to significant challenges to the welfare state. Given that welfare expenses account for a large proportion of all state spending in the member countries of the European Union, reducing government spending means cutting welfare measures. Yet social protection, in particular unemployment insurance benefits and minimum income support, has significantly softened the impact of the crisis for millions of individuals. The global recession calls into question the financial viability of current programmes, and the crisis is being used by some as an opportunity to roll back the welfare state permanently. The present Forum discusses challenges to and opportunities for the welfare state after the crisis.     

An indirect treatment comparison of the efficacy of insulin degludec/liraglutide (IDegLira) and insulin glargine/lixisenatide (iGlarLixi) in patients with type 2 diabetes uncontrolled on basal insulin

Aims: To obtain estimates of the relative treatment effects between insulin degludec/liraglutide (IDegLira) and insulin glargine U100/lixisenatide (iGlarLixi) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) uncontrolled on basal insulin therapy.

Materials and methods: Data from phase 3 trials providing evidence for estimating the relative efficacy and safety of IDegLira vs iGlarLixi in patients uncontrolled on basal insulin-only regimens were used in this analysis. Outcomes of interest were changes in HbA_1c, body weight and insulin dose, and rate ratio of hypoglycemia. The indirect comparison of the reported trial findings followed the principles of Bucher et al.

Results: IDegLira was estimated to provide a 0.44 [95% CI?=?0.17–0.71] %-point reduction in HbA_1c compared with iGlarLixi. Body weight was reduced by 1.42 [95% CI?=?0.35–2.50] kg with IDegLira compared with iGlarLixi. Insulin dose was comparable between the two interventions. The rate of severe or blood glucose-confirmed (self-measured plasma glucose [SMPG]?≤?3.1?mmol/L) hypoglycemia with IDegLira was approximately half that of iGlarLixi (rate ratio?=?0.51 [95% CI?=?0.29–0.90]). However, using the American Diabetes Association definition of documented symptomatic hypoglycemia (SMPG ≤3.9?mmol/L) the rate was comparable between the two treatments (rate ratio?=?1.07 [95% CI?=?0.90–1.28]).

Limitations: The assumptions made in the indirect comparison and differences between the included trials in baseline HbA_1c levels, previous use of sulfonylureas, definitions of hypoglycemia, presence or absence of run-in period, the different duration of the trials, and the cross-over design of one of the trials.

Conclusions: The results of this indirect treatment comparison demonstrate that, among patients with T2DM uncontrolled on basal insulin, treatment with IDegLira results in a greater reduction of HbA_1c and a greater reduction in body weight compared with iGlarLixi at similar insulin doses.     

International Integration, Risk and the Welfare State

How does international integration affect the welfare state? Does it call for a leaner or an expanded welfare state? International integration may affect the distortions caused by welfare state activities but also the risks motivating social insurance mechanisms. This paper addresses these potentially counteracting effects in a fully specified intertemporal two–country stochastic endowment model, focusing on the implications when product market integration reduces trade frictions across national product markets. It is shown that lower trade frictions may increase the marginal costs of public funds, which gives an argument for reducing (steady–state) public consumption. However, tighter integration of product markets unambiguously leads to more variability in private consumption, and this gives a case for expanding the social insurance provided via state–contingent public sector activities (automatic stabilizers). JEL classification: E30; F10; H11     

Leadership and change management

The purpose of this article is to understand that the reason so many programs fall short in addressing and improving competitiveness is that their single focus is on information technology, to instill in our minds that there are many other elements of change that need to be considered (behavior being one), and to present an overview of the motor, the motive, and the mirror that drive behavior and its characteristics.     

Industrial organization in oil markets since the embargo

Recently it has become obvious that OPEC, a cartel which only a few years ago could cause substantial redistribution of wealth in its favor, is now hard pressed to protect these gains. In the history of cartels the phenomenon is not new, and the conventional tools of industrial organization analyses are used here to provide insights into the process. The dynamics of structural change and the conduct of market participants have undermined OPEC's dominance in world crude oil trading. Strategies adopted by major energy companies which have contributed to weakening the cartel are examined. The development of crude reserves alternate to those held by OPEC has been the focus of large investment expenditures. In addition, the development of flexible trading policies for purchases of crude oil has enhanced bargaining power with alternate suppliers. The paper also examines marketing and organizational changes within OPEC. Less and less are OPEC members simply sellers of crude oil. Increasingly, crude is bartered or sold in packages containing mixtures of LNG or refined products. Moreover, corporate diversity among various OPEC national oil companies is growing as major new facilities in refining, marketing, transportation and chemical production come into operation. The very fact that this complexity reflects explicit decisions by participants indicates the growing force of individual as opposed to group interest maximization and permanently weakens the cartel's ability to exercise market power.     

Is there a Role for an Active Fiscal Stabilization Policy?

This paper discusses the need and scope for an active fiscalstabilization policy. It is argued that the effectiveness offiscal policy as a short run stabilizer does not depend on thelong run multipliers of (balanced budget) fiscal policies. Tothe extent that activity can be affected by aggregate demandin the short run, there is a case for a fiscal stabilizationpolicy in terms of temporary variations in taxes or public consumptioncontingent on the state of the economy. The effectiveness offiscal policy is supported by empirical evidence. However, anappropriate policy intervention depends both on the nature ofthe shock and the structure of the economy. There are thus fundamentalinformation problems in pursuing discretionary fiscal policieson top of political economy concerns, and fiscal fine-tuningis not to be recommended. Automatic stabilizers do not to thesame extent suffer from these problems, but their strength isnot by design but the net result of other policy considerations.Hence, there is a need to consider the structure and size ofautomatic stabilizers. (JEL E6)     

Leading public service organizations: how to obtain high employee self-efficacy and organizational performance

Concerns are sometimes raised that transactional leadership harms public organizations’ performance because demands thwart employees’ self-efficacy. However, the opposite may be argued – conditional rewards strengthen feelings of competence because they provide positive feedback on performance. We study ninety-two high school principals’ reported use of contingent rewards and sanctions and self-efficacy among their 1,932 teachers. The results indicate that contingent rewards strengthen self-efficacy, and that sanctions are not negatively related with self-efficacy or performance. Furthermore, the teachers’ self-efficacy can be linked positively to organizational performance. This suggests that rewards can be an important tool for managers in the public sector.     

Learning to Love Biomimetic Killing: How Jurassic World Embraces Life Forms as Weapons

This article examines how the latest film in a series of movies about a dinosaur theme park, Jurassic World, became entangled in the politics of military representations in popular culture. Beginning with the ways in which the Pentagon has influenced the film industry in the 9/11 media environment, we go on to detail how Jurassic World enacts the current high‐tech military research into biowarfare—weaponizing animals and defining nature as the ultimate killing machine. In the film, the dino‐stars are harnessed into battle to protect the humans, led by a former Navy soldier who takes a pack of Velociraptors, and filmgoers, on a thrilling hunt to destroy a bioengineered, genetically modified dino‐monster. Though the film offers a commercial critique of designing animals purely for profit, it fails to challenge the profit‐making ties between the military industries, weapons technology, and corporate entertainment media. Character depictions, narrative, and visual and filmic storytelling devices are explored in order to identify the tropes directing the film's message. Ultimately, Jurassic World presents the military's new frontier of biowarfare with enthusiasm, not skepticism, and Hollywood welcomes a “brave new world” in which the biological world has been harnessed for military purposes.