Does German Development Aid Promote German Exports?

Abstract. This paper uses a static and dynamic gravity model of trade to investigate the link between German development aid and exports from Germany to the recipient countries. The findings indicate that, in the long run, German aid is associated with an increase in exports of goods that is larger than the aid flow, with a point estimate of 140% of the aid given. In addition, the evolution of the estimated coefficients over time shows an effect that is consistently positive but that oscillates over time. Interestingly, after a decrease in the 1990s, the estimated coefficients of the effect of aid on trade show a steady increase in the period between 2001 and 2005. The paper distinguishes among recipient countries and finds that the return on aid measured by German exports is higher for aid to countries considered 'strategic aid recipients' by the German government. We also find some evidence that aid given by other EU members reduces German exports.     

The effects of recent Spanish pension reforms on sustainability and pension adequacy

The Spanish pension system has been recently reformed as a response to the demographic challenge and with the objective of ensuring the sustainability of the pension system in the long-term. The overall reforms include changes in the majority of the system parameters, a new indexation rule and a sustainability factor that links life expectancy and the first pension amount. The aim of this work is to analyse how these reforms affect two important features of a pension system: fiscal sustainability and adequacy. For this purpose, the real internal rate of return (IRR) of the lifetime contributions and benefits and the prospective gross theoretical replacement rate (TRR), both before and after the reforms, have been computed. The calculations are case-study based, for a few hypothetical workers who are sufficiently representative of the earnings and retirement patterns in Spain. The results show that the real IRR is 0.7 p.p. lower and the prospective gross TRR is 18 p.p. lower after the reform process for the base case of a man with an uninterrupted career of 40 years with average earnings and a retirement age of 65. In addition, pension reform process in Spain has different effects among the individuals depending on the gender, level of earnings, retirement age and career length.     

Economic and Geographical Distance: Explaining Mercosur Sectoral Exports to the EU

The objective of this paper is to apply a modified gravity model to annual exports disaggregated by sector, from MERCOSUR + Chile to the 15 current members of the EU. In doing so, we aimed to classify sectors according to their sensitivity to geographical and economic distance and to identify which commodities enjoy export strength even without further progress in trade liberalisation with the EU. In the estimation we made use of two additional explanatory variables which are found to be relevant when explaining trade, namely, infrastructure and exchange rates. An exchange rate index is built that takes into account protection. Our results support the view that different sectors have a different sensitivity to distance and highlight the importance of using disaggregated data when analysing international trade flows.     

Are Labour Provisions in Free Trade Agreements Improving Labour Conditions?

Open Economies Review - This paper investigates the impact of labour provisions in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on labour market conditions in the ratifying countries. Using panel data for up to 96...     

Transport costs and trade: Empirical evidence for Latin American imports from the European union

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between trade flows and transport costs. In previous studies the cost of transport was considered as an exogenous variable. However, an expanding volume of trade also reduces the unit cost of transport and, therefore, the causal relationship between trade and transport costs may be operating in both directions. A transport-costs equation is estimated using data on transportation costs from the International Transport Data Base (BTI). The relationship between transport costs and trade is then analysed by applying a gravity model for sectoral imports for five Latin American Countries from the European Union. We investigate the endogeneity of the transport cost and trade variables by estimating simultaneously both equations. Our results show that, while higher distance and poor importer's infrastructure notably increase transport costs, a higher volume of trade has the opposite effect. Moreover, trade is significantly deterred by higher transport costs and fostered by cultural similarities.