The Welfare Cost of Autarky: Evidence from the Jeffersonian Trade Embargo, 1807–09

The United States came close to complete autarky in 1808 as a result of a self‐imposed embargo on international shipping from December 1807 to March 1809. Monthly prices of exported and imported goods reveal the embargo's striking effect on commodity markets and allow a calculation of its welfare effects. A simple general‐equilibrium calculation suggests that the embargo cost about 5 percent of America's 1807 GNP, at a time when the trade share was about 13 percent (domestic exports and shipping earnings). The welfare cost was lower than the trade share because the embargo did not completely eliminate trade and because domestic producers successfully shifted production toward previously imported manufactured goods.     

ANTI-POVERTY EFFECTIVENESS OF THE MINIMUM LIVING STANDARD ASSISTANCE POLICY IN URBAN CHINA

Since its inception 15 years ago, the Minimum Living Standard Assistance (MLSA) has served as a last resort for China's urban poor. Using national household survey data, this study provides updated evidence on the participation rate, receipt amount, and anti-poverty effectiveness of MLSA. Families eligible for MLSA make up 2.3 percent of the urban population, but only about half of them are actual beneficiaries. City MLSA generosity and household entitled benefit amount both positively correlate with participation rate and household receipt amount. MLSA lowers the poverty rate somewhat, but substantially reduces the poverty gap and severity for its eligible participants. Nevertheless, the poverty reduction role of MLSA is restricted by its partial coverage and delivery. Consequentially, poverty remains a serious problem for MLSA's target population. The anti-poverty effectiveness of MLSA can be strengthened by full coverage and delivery of benefits and by paying special attention to disadvantaged subgroups.     

Confessions of a Telephone Regulator: The FCC's AT&T Investigation of 1972–1977

Review of Industrial Organization -     

TERMS OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NINETEENTH CENTURY BRITAIN *

International trade and economic growth have been considered intimately linked in nineteenth century Britain. Conventional estimates of Britain's gross national product, however, fail to account for changes in the terms of trade and may be misleading indicators of changes in real income. Revised figures that incorporate terms of trade changes are presented here. One finding is that conventional estimates of GNP overstate growth in real income early in the century when the terms of trade deteriorated.     

Determinants of Residential Land-Use Conversion and Sprawl at the Rural-Urban Fringe

We estimate a probit model of residential land conversion using parcel-level data from a rural-urban county in Ohio. Spatial landscape pattern metrics are used to quantify land-use patterns and to link patterns of residential sprawl with factors estimated to influence parcel-level land conversion. Findings indicate that the location of new residential development is influenced by preferences for lower density areas that nonetheless are close to existing urban development. Combined, these forces have generated a moderated pattern of residential sprawl. Spatial error autocorrelation is controlled using a spatial sampling technique that enables consistent estimation of the probit model.     

EVALUATING THE FINANCE JOURNALS: THE DEPARTMENT CHAIRPERSON'S PERSPECTIVE

Finance department chairpersons report that the role of published research is more important than ever in influencing appointment and promotion decisions of finance professors. This study and one conducted 15 years ago focus on the pivotal role of finance chairpersons in the evaluation of their faculties' journal publications. These studies show that the major factor influencing the finance chairpersons' evaluations of publications is the journal in which an article is published. Journals of high merit are perceived to have low acceptance rates and vice versa. These estimates of perceived acceptance rates are not correlated with actual acceptance rates. Because perceived acceptance rates play a key role in evaluating faculty publications, there is a need for finance chairpersons to know the relative difficulties of publishing in leading finance and related journals.