Speculation and corn prices

It is commonly asserted that speculative trading activities are largely behind the high and volatile food commodity price behaviour since 2006. In this article, we revisit this hypothesis by investigating how different speculative measures affect our conclusion on the role of speculation. Four speculative measures are considered, including index trading activities, non-commercial net long positions, Working’s speculative index, and an excessive speculative volume index. These four measures imply different underlying hypotheses about the role of speculation on commodity price movements and encompass most of the measures used in the recent literature on the role of speculation in commodity markets. Using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we show a mixed impact of speculative trading on corn prices depending on the measure used. While shocks to index trading activities and excess speculation as measured by Working’s T have either zero or negative impact on corn prices, a positive shock to non-commercial net positions or the Tadesse index significantly increases the price of corn. However, the magnitude of the impact is not large, at most about $0.30 per bushel in real terms. Our findings are robust to structural breaks, alternative ordering of variables, and an alternative specification of the model.     

Style and Performance of Agricultural Market Advisory Services

This article develops measures of marketing style for advisory programs in corn and soybeans and estimates the relationship between style characteristics and pricing performance. Style is measured by the intensity of futures and options use, degree of activeness in marketing, and seasonality of sales. The data set consists of advisory programs tracked by the AgMAS project at the University of Illinois between 1995 and 2004. Results indicate that active programs making large bets on price movements obtain a higher average price than more conservative programs. This is consistent with active advisors possessing superior information and/or analytical skills rather than being overconfident. However, estimates of the relationship between pricing performance and activeness are sensitive to the inclusion of a single high-performing program.     

Pigs in Space: Modeling the Spatial Structure of Hog Production in Traditional and Nontraditional Production Regions

We posit a spatially explicit, county-level model of the hog production sector and estimate how numerous firm-specific, locality-specific, and spatial agglomeration factors affect the location, movement, and intensity of hog production within 15 key hog production states. Spatial agglomeration, urban encroachment, input availability, firm productivity, local economy, slaughter access, and regulatory stringency variables affect the sample regions' spatial organization. Analyses suggest that western states in the sample may shape hog production levels by wielding traditional business recruitment and retention tools (e.g., tax rates, environmental stringency) while Corn Belt states may shape hog production via nontraditional tools (e.g., land use controls).     

The stern Stewart PERFORMANCE 1000

The big news in Stern Stewart's annual performance rankings is the unseating of Coca-Cola, the top-ranking company for the past three years, by General Electric—and Microsoft's dramatic rise into third place. Besides presenting the full rankings (the top 100 of which were published by Fortune this fall), this article complements the preceding roundtable by describing the inroads of EVA into Europe and Latin America.     

INNOVATION, PRICE COMPETITION AND THE 'TILT' OF COMPETITION POLICY

Innovation is the key to rising living standards; competition is the key to a rapid rate of innovation.     

Examining Medical Decision Making from a Marketing Perspective

This paper explores how consideration of the medical context can add newelements to marketing thought. Differences between the medical context andother consumer contexts are reviewed. The effects that the medical contexthas on the way traditional constructs such as involvement, affect andstress, uncertainty and satisfaction affect choice are discussed. Finally,emerging research in medical contexts where future discoveries could enhanceconsumer choice theory are presented.     

A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence

Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in the level of commodity prices. Some researchers have argued that these market participants—through their impact on market prices—may have inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result—if substantiated—would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index funds and their potential market impact. Here, we review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies. Then, additional empirical evidence is added regarding cross-sectional market returns and the relative levels of long-only index fund participation in 12 commodity futures markets. The empirical results provide scant evidence that long-only index funds impact returns across commodity futures markets.     

Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions

Considerable disagreement exists about the most appropriate characterization of farm-level yield distributions. Yet, the economic importance of alternative yield distribution specifications on crop insurance valuation has not been well documented. The results of this study demonstrate that large differences in expected payouts from popular crop insurance products can arise solely from the parameterization chosen to represent yield distributions. The results suggest that the frequently unexamined yield distribution specification may lead to economically significant errors in crop insurance policy rating and assessment of expected payouts from policies.