The optimal tax on antebellum US cotton exports

The US produced about 80% of the world’s cotton in the decades prior to the Civil War. How much monopoly power did the US possess in the world cotton market and what would have been the effect of an optimal export tax? This paper estimates the elasticity of foreign demand for US cotton exports and uses the elasticity in a simple partial equilibrium model to calculate the optimal export tax and its effect on prices, trade, and welfare. The results indicate that the export demand elasticity for US cotton was about −1.7 and that the optimal export tax of about 50% would have raised US welfare by about $10 million, about 0.3% of US GDP or about 1% of the South’s GDP.     

An empirical examination of the implications of arbitrage pricing theory

This paper presents a comprehensive set of tests of the implications of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We find, unlike previously reported results, a very limited relationship between the expected returns and the covariance (factor loadings) measures of risk. Furthermore, unique variance measures of risk, while generally making only small contributions to the explanation of asset returns, turn out to be significant about as frequently as the coveriance measures of risk — which is inconsistent with the Arbitrage Pricing Theory model. The intercept tests are more mixed but provide only limited support to the model.     

Regulatory science-Towards a sociological framework

The close relationship between scientific expertise and regulatory policy in certain controversial and public areas has prompted commentators to suggest the concept of ‘regulatory science’. However, definition is generally constrained either to the concerns of regulatory science or to its context. This paper proposes an approach to regulatory science which is both empirically-based and allows a more theoretical treatment of the new conditions of scientific and regulatory activity. A particular case-study of the British agrochemicals sector is presented in terms of a five-way analytical framework for regulatory science. The paper concludes by considering the wider relevance of regulatory science for future sociological and policy research.     

Markets without boundaries

Western economies, and the US in particular, are experiencing a dramatic diversification and proliferation of information activities which will effect all aspects of leisure and business. Against this background, Manley Irwin considers the nature of market entry, the reasons why markets are changing so rapidly, and the implications for both public and private sectors. He concludes that the blurring of market boundaries will defuse and decentralize economies, spur competition and encourage entrepreneurial activity.     

The Rise of US Anti‐dumping Activity in Historical Perspective

Empirical studies of anti‐dumping activity focus almost exclusively on the period since 1980. This paper puts recent US anti‐dumping experience in historical context by studying the determinants of annual case filings over the past half century. The conventional view that few anti‐dumping cases existed prior to 1980 is not correct, although most did not result in the imposition of duties. The increased number of cases in recent decades largely reflects petitions that target multiple‐source countries; the number of imported products involved has actually fallen since the mid‐1980s. The annual number of anti‐dumping cases is influenced by the unemployment rate, the exchange rate, import penetration (closely related to the decline in average tariffs), and changes in the anti‐dumping law and its enforcement in the early 1980s.     

The Winner’s Curse of Human Capital

We extend a model developed by Evans and Jovanovic (1989) to explain when start-ups are credit constrained. We show that the magnitude of the credit constraint is conditioned by the relative productivity of human capital in both wage work and self-employment. The effect of predicted household income on start-up capital is used to indicate the existence of financial constraint. Empirical analysis reveals that entrepreneurs with high human capital have both greater financial wealth and greater levels of start-up capital pointing to the endogenous nature of credit constraints. High human capital relaxes financial constraints, apparently due to greater productivity of human capital in wage work than in self-employment. Those who are the least likely to be credit constrained in self-employment are those that are least likely to switch into self-employment,and vice versa.     

The same old song: The power of familiarity in music choice

Does "familiarity breed contempt" or is "to know you is to love you"? In this research, we explore the role of familiarity in music choice. We show that although consumers say they would prefer to listen to unfamiliar music, in actuality familiarity with music positively predicts preference for songs, play lists, and radio stations. Familiarity with music is at least as good, if not a better, predictor of choice as are liking, satiation (which actually positively predicts choice), and regret. We suggest that the need for familiarity is driven by consumers' low need for stimulation in the music domain, and show that when the need for stimulation decreases, the power of familiarity significantly increases. In addition to their theoretical contribution, these results are informative for music managers determining playlists, for the promotion of music events and products, and for advertisers selecting the most potentially lucrative music venues.