Deleveraging crises and deep recessions: a behavioural approach

Macroeconomic dynamics are characterized by alternating patterns of periods of relative stability and large swings. Standard microfounded macroeconomic models account for these patterns through exogenous and persistent shocks. In this article, we develop a fully decentralized and microfounded macroeconomic agent-based model, augmented with an opinion model, which produces endogenous waves of pessimism and optimism that feed back into firms’ leverage and households’ precautionary saving behaviour. A major emergent property of our model is precisely the complex successions of stable and unstable macroeconomic regimes. The model is further able to account for a wide spectrum of macro and micro empirical regularities. Within this framework, we analyse a series of macroeconomic phenomena of key relevance in the current macroeconomic debate, especially the occurrence of deleveraging crises and Fisherian debt-deflation recessions. Our analysis suggests that the relative dynamics of prices and wages and the resulting income distribution along a deflationary path are critical determinants of the severity of the recession and the chances of recovery.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of bariatric surgery for morbid obesity in Belgium

Aims: This study presents the cost-effectiveness analysis of bariatric surgery in Belgium from a third-party payer perspective for a lifetime and 10-year horizon.

Materials and methods: A decision analytic model incorporating Markov process was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, and adjustable gastric banding against conventional medical management (CMM). In the model, patients could undergo surgery, or experience post-surgery complications, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or die. Transition probabilities, costs, and utilities were derived from the literature. The impact of different surgical methods on body mass index (BMI) level in the base-case analysis was informed by the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry and the Swedish Obese Subject (SOS) study. Healthcare resource use and costs were obtained from Belgian sources. A base-case analysis was performed for the population, the characteristics of which were obtained from surgery candidates in Belgium.

Results: In the base-case analysis over a 10-year time horizon, the increment in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from bariatric surgery vs CMM was 1.4 per patient, whereas the incremental cost was €3,788, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €2,809 per QALY. Over a lifetime, bariatric surgery produced savings of €9,332, an additional 1.1 life years and 5.0 QALYs. Bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years post-surgery and dominant over conventional management over a lifetime horizon.

Limitations: The model did not include the whole scope of obesity-related complications, and also did not account for variation in surgery outcomes for different populations of diabetic patients. Also, the data about management of patients after surgery was based on assumptions and the opinion of a clinical expert.

Conclusions: It was demonstrated that a current mix of bariatric surgery methods was cost-effective at 10 years post-surgery and cost-saving over the lifetime of the Belgian patient cohort considered in this analysis.     

The role of credit officers in the performance of micro loans

This paper proposes a structural model explicitly considering the role played by credit officers in loan performance. The credit officer's ability is decomposed into the screening and the audit stage. This model is estimated using a rich database from VivaCred – a Brazilian NGO. Results suggest that: (i) there is substantial heterogeneity among credit officers in the sample; (ii) their ability affects more the screening than the audit stage; and (iii) their estimated ability is correlated with their experience at VivaCred but not with their experience before joining the organization. Evidence suggests that a reduction in staff turnover would be beneficial to the institution.     

Corporate social responsibility and firm financial risk reduction: On the moderating role of the legal environment

Approaching the institutional environment through its regulative component, we distinguish between shareholder‐oriented and stakeholder‐oriented countries. Identifying first this classification with the distinction between common law versus civil law countries and using a large sample of 5,716 firm‐year observations that represents 1,169 individual firms in 25 countries between 2001 and 2011, we show that Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) significantly reduces firms’ idiosyncratic risk in civil law countries but not in common law countries. Using then a more direct classification based on shareholder and employee protection scores, our findings suggest that CSR negatively affects firms’ idiosyncratic and systematic risks only in less shareholder‐oriented and more stakeholder‐oriented countries, respectively. These findings are similar in the different components of CSR with two notable exceptions: a high score in corporate governance reduces firm risk only in common law countries, and community involvement increases idiosyncratic risk in more shareholder‐oriented and less stakeholder‐oriented countries, respectively. Taken together, our results strongly support the view that the relationship between CSR and financial risk is moderated by the institutional context of the firm.     

Design principles for corporate venture transition processes in established technology firms

Corporate venturing has become a well‐known approach toward new business development and strategic renewal for established technology firms. However, without an effectively designed process for aligning and integrating a corporate venture in the established business, the firm increases the risk of venture failure. This paper provides a process perspective on corporate venture transition. Based on the results of an empirical study of six corporate venture transition processes, we present suitable actions for each of the different phases of the venture transition process. In addition, we indicate the proper timing for venture transition, which is one of the long‐standing difficulties in this area. Finally, we integrate the results of the empirical study with knowledge from extant literature in a set of design principles. These design principles provide practical guidelines to improve corporate venture transition processes.     

Wine Tourists’ Destination Region Brand Image Perception and Antecedents: Conceptualization of a Winescape Framework

This study conceptualizes the winescape framework using a wine region's image as perceived by wine tourists, in the process integrating grounded theory, namely servicescape, destination choice, and place-based marketing theories. Using an a priori approach, it identifies the winescape construct in a framework of eight dimensions within the wine tourism environment in a study with 996 respondents in a well-known Canadian wine region. The most important dimension of the winescape is the region's natural beauty/setting (landscape). Other high impact characteristics are the service staff and friendly local people, overall ambience and the diversity of wine estates. The dynamic of first-time and repeat visitation plays a key role in visitors’ wine tourism behavior and their perception of the winescape. The decision to engage in wine tourism is generally impulsive, even spurious, and the motivations guiding the visitors’ behavior predominantly hedonic in nature.     

Disability,social inclusion and the marketing of tourist attractions

The participation of persons with a disability (PWDs) in tourism has received growing academic interest in recent years. This paper contributes to a reflection on how accessible tourism relates to the sustainable development paradigm. To investigate this relationship, it goes beyond the question of PWDs’ access to tourism services, and adopts an inclusiveness perspective. Inclusion is examined in terms of legislation, marketing and imagery, and representations of PWDs as consumers embedded within social units – and families in particular. These dimensions are explored empirically in a study of visitor attractions in Cornwall (England) based on a quantitative and qualitative content analysis of brochures and websites. The study shows that the marketing materials of Cornish visitor attractions mainly focus on access, and the imagery used largely projects quasi invisibility or provides ambiguous messages. Communication with PWDs rarely addresses the family unit, making the family tourism experience intangible in the pre-trip phase. These results point at weaker implementation of inclusiveness, which corroborates previous findings of watered down definitions of rights to tourism under neo-liberal ideologies and economic crises. The paper discusses implications for social inclusion and highlights avenues for future research.     

中国农村大龄未婚男性的自慰行为——基于性别失衡背景的研究发现

利用2008年8月在安徽省CH市JC区27岁以上的农村男性调查数据,对中国性别失衡背景下的农村大龄未婚男性的自慰行为进行了深入研究.大龄未婚男性的自慰频度显著高于已婚男性,但性交频度和自慰性高潮均显著低于已婚男性.对于大龄未婚男性而言,自慰频度并不能替代性交频度,但却可能是正常或稳定性活动的有效替代;同时自慰频度能有效提高自慰性高潮,因而从一定程度上可以帮助大龄未婚男性释放性压抑,改善性福利.