Predicting rating changes for banks: how accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?

We aim to assess how accurately accounting and stock market indicators predict rating changes for Asian banks. We conduct a stepwise process to determine the optimal set of early indicators by tracing upgrades and downgrades from rating agencies, as well as other relevant factors. Our results indicate that both accounting and market indicators are useful leading indicators but are more effective in predicting upgrades than downgrades, especially for large banks. Moreover, early indicators are only significant in predicting rating changes for banks that are more focused on traditional banking activities such as deposit and loan activities. Finally, a higher reliance of banks on subordinated debt is associated with better accuracy of early indicators.     

Disability,social inclusion and the marketing of tourist attractions

The participation of persons with a disability (PWDs) in tourism has received growing academic interest in recent years. This paper contributes to a reflection on how accessible tourism relates to the sustainable development paradigm. To investigate this relationship, it goes beyond the question of PWDs’ access to tourism services, and adopts an inclusiveness perspective. Inclusion is examined in terms of legislation, marketing and imagery, and representations of PWDs as consumers embedded within social units – and families in particular. These dimensions are explored empirically in a study of visitor attractions in Cornwall (England) based on a quantitative and qualitative content analysis of brochures and websites. The study shows that the marketing materials of Cornish visitor attractions mainly focus on access, and the imagery used largely projects quasi invisibility or provides ambiguous messages. Communication with PWDs rarely addresses the family unit, making the family tourism experience intangible in the pre-trip phase. These results point at weaker implementation of inclusiveness, which corroborates previous findings of watered down definitions of rights to tourism under neo-liberal ideologies and economic crises. The paper discusses implications for social inclusion and highlights avenues for future research.     

Spending rules for endowment funds

Endowment fund managers face an asset allocation problem with several particularities: they are more interested in spending for current and future beneficiaries than growing value, although the trade-off between these two alternatives needs to be understood; they have to consider longest-term investment, typically an infinite horizon. We do address these allocation constraints in a dynamic framework where minimum subsistence levels (introducing the idea that a minimum spending amount needs to be made at every time period) are introduced in the objective function. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal spending stream, endowment value, spending rate and portfolio strategy in a simple Black/Scholes type economy. We analyze the effects of parameter changes on asset allocation decisions and provide simulations on bearish, median and bullish paths.     

中国农村大龄未婚男性的自慰行为——基于性别失衡背景的研究发现

利用2008年8月在安徽省CH市JC区27岁以上的农村男性调查数据,对中国性别失衡背景下的农村大龄未婚男性的自慰行为进行了深入研究.大龄未婚男性的自慰频度显著高于已婚男性,但性交频度和自慰性高潮均显著低于已婚男性.对于大龄未婚男性而言,自慰频度并不能替代性交频度,但却可能是正常或稳定性活动的有效替代;同时自慰频度能有效提高自慰性高潮,因而从一定程度上可以帮助大龄未婚男性释放性压抑,改善性福利.     

DYNAMIC SPANNING: ARE OPTIONS AN APPROPRIATE INSTRUMENT?1

Ross (1976) has shown, in a static framework, how options can complete financial markets. This paper examines the possible extensions of Ross's idea in a dynamic setup. Surprisingly enough, we find that the answer is very sensitive to the choice of the stochastic model for the underlying security returns. More specifically we obtain the following results: In a discrete-time model, classical European options typically become redundant with some probability (Proposition 2.1). Obnly path dependent (“exotic”) options may generate dynamic spanning (Proposition 4.1). In a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility of the underlying security, and under reasonable assumptions, a European option is always a good instrument for completing markets (Proposition 5.2).     

Which Dimensions of Social Responsibility Concern Financial Investors?

Social and environmental ratings provided by social rating agencies are multidimensional. The first goal of our paper is to identify a small number of independent and relevant socially responsible (SR) dimensions reflecting a firms’ coherent posture toward social issues. We put forward that these dimensions are not exactly the same as the ESG ones (Environment, Social, and Governance). Using the six sub-ratings provided by the Vigeo rating agency, we perform a principal component analysis and we highlight three main independent SR dimensions related to (1) business stakeholders (employees, customers, and suppliers), (2) societal stakeholders (environment and society), and (3) financial stakeholders (stockholders and debt holders). The second objective of our paper is to explore the link between stock returns and these three SR dimensions. Our most notable finding is that for each SR dimension, investors ask for an additional risk premium when they accept to hold non-socially responsible stocks. The cost of equity is thus lower for SR firms. The average premium over the period 2003–2010 is larger for the components “business stakeholders” and “financial stakeholders” than for the component “societal stakeholders.” The premium for this last component has only existed since the end of 2008. Since that time, environment and community involvement have become important risk factors strongly considered by investors. For the three dimensions, investors notably penalize large non-social firms and reward small social firms.     

On the identification of the procurement model

Under multiplicative separability of the cost function, this paper investigates the identification of the procurement model. Moreover, we characterize the model restrictions on observables and show its observational equivalence to one where the function of private information is the identity.