Predicting rating changes for banks: how accurate are accounting and stock market indicators?

We aim to assess how accurately accounting and stock market indicators predict rating changes for Asian banks. We conduct a stepwise process to determine the optimal set of early indicators by tracing upgrades and downgrades from rating agencies, as well as other relevant factors. Our results indicate that both accounting and market indicators are useful leading indicators but are more effective in predicting upgrades than downgrades, especially for large banks. Moreover, early indicators are only significant in predicting rating changes for banks that are more focused on traditional banking activities such as deposit and loan activities. Finally, a higher reliance of banks on subordinated debt is associated with better accuracy of early indicators.     

Which Dimensions of Social Responsibility Concern Financial Investors?

Social and environmental ratings provided by social rating agencies are multidimensional. The first goal of our paper is to identify a small number of independent and relevant socially responsible (SR) dimensions reflecting a firms’ coherent posture toward social issues. We put forward that these dimensions are not exactly the same as the ESG ones (Environment, Social, and Governance). Using the six sub-ratings provided by the Vigeo rating agency, we perform a principal component analysis and we highlight three main independent SR dimensions related to (1) business stakeholders (employees, customers, and suppliers), (2) societal stakeholders (environment and society), and (3) financial stakeholders (stockholders and debt holders). The second objective of our paper is to explore the link between stock returns and these three SR dimensions. Our most notable finding is that for each SR dimension, investors ask for an additional risk premium when they accept to hold non-socially responsible stocks. The cost of equity is thus lower for SR firms. The average premium over the period 2003–2010 is larger for the components “business stakeholders” and “financial stakeholders” than for the component “societal stakeholders.” The premium for this last component has only existed since the end of 2008. Since that time, environment and community involvement have become important risk factors strongly considered by investors. For the three dimensions, investors notably penalize large non-social firms and reward small social firms.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of bariatric surgery for morbid obesity in Belgium

Aims: This study presents the cost-effectiveness analysis of bariatric surgery in Belgium from a third-party payer perspective for a lifetime and 10-year horizon.

Materials and methods: A decision analytic model incorporating Markov process was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, and adjustable gastric banding against conventional medical management (CMM). In the model, patients could undergo surgery, or experience post-surgery complications, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or die. Transition probabilities, costs, and utilities were derived from the literature. The impact of different surgical methods on body mass index (BMI) level in the base-case analysis was informed by the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry and the Swedish Obese Subject (SOS) study. Healthcare resource use and costs were obtained from Belgian sources. A base-case analysis was performed for the population, the characteristics of which were obtained from surgery candidates in Belgium.

Results: In the base-case analysis over a 10-year time horizon, the increment in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from bariatric surgery vs CMM was 1.4 per patient, whereas the incremental cost was €3,788, leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €2,809 per QALY. Over a lifetime, bariatric surgery produced savings of €9,332, an additional 1.1 life years and 5.0 QALYs. Bariatric surgery was cost-effective at 10 years post-surgery and dominant over conventional management over a lifetime horizon.

Limitations: The model did not include the whole scope of obesity-related complications, and also did not account for variation in surgery outcomes for different populations of diabetic patients. Also, the data about management of patients after surgery was based on assumptions and the opinion of a clinical expert.

Conclusions: It was demonstrated that a current mix of bariatric surgery methods was cost-effective at 10 years post-surgery and cost-saving over the lifetime of the Belgian patient cohort considered in this analysis.     

Relationship keyness: The underlying concept for different forms of key relationship management

For companies, relationships with external actors may constitute intangible assets. Many firms have put in place key account management programs in order to pay sufficient attention to strategically important customers and the marketing literature has studied such programs. However, a company's relationship portfolio also comprises relationships with other types of actors. The objective of this paper is to show that - across the different types of external relationships a company may develop - some relationships have more importance than others and, hence, are key. The authors argue that, as a consequence, the keyness of certain relationships has led to the emergence of approaches which can be referred to as key relationship management. For this purpose, the authors first present empirical material on the management of relationships between companies and their partners in strategic alliances from the French IT sector. They then discuss the concept of keyness as well as the common characteristics of different forms of key relationship management such as key account management, key supplier management and strategic alliance management.     

Empathic Relationships in Professional Services and the Moderating Role of Relationship Age

Empathy has been identified as a key success factor for employees who interact with customers. Despite its overall relevance, only a few studies have acknowledged its multidimensional nature. Knowledge remains scarce about the relative impact of cognitive and affective empathy on relational outcomes. In addition, few pieces of research have explicitly acknowledged empathy as theorized within stage‐models focusing on the communication of empathy. The authors conceptualize empathy as a multidimensional construct perceived by the client. Empathy has to be communicated to be effective, while customers’ perceptions of empathy may also be more complex as they distinguish between cognitive and affective empathy. This article investigates the effects of perspective taking, emotional concern, and emotional contagion on trust and commitment. Drawing upon relationship stage concepts, the authors further argue that the influence is moderated by relationship age. Finally, this study investigates if employees benefit from being perceived as empathic partners in terms of “hard facts” (objective sales performance). Based on a data set from 215 business clients of a large consulting firm, this study adopts a structural equation modeling (SEM) approach by using multigroup analysis. To test the empathy–performance link, the authors aggregate customer responses nested in 84 employees and link perceived empathy with performance data. The results show that within B2B relationships, perspective taking exerts the strongest influence on trust, whereas emotional concern is the strongest driver for commitment. The results also confirm the moderating role of relationship age and that perspective taking leads to an increase in actual sales performance. This study underpins the relevance of empathy within services marketing, while providing a more detailed approach to account for empathy as a relation building tool. Practical and academic implications are also addressed.     

Asymmetry in first‐price auctions with affiliated private values

Collusion and heterogeneity across firms may introduce asymmetry in bidding games. A major difficulty in asymmetric auctions is that the Bayesian Nash equilibrium strategies are solutions of an intractable system of differential equations. We propose a simple method for estimating asymmetric first‐price auctions with affiliated private values. Considering two types of bidders, we show that these differential equations can be rewritten using the observed bid distribution. We establish the identification of the model, characterize its theoretical restrictions, and propose a two‐step non‐parametric estimation procedure for estimating the private value distributions. An empirical analysis of joint bidding in OCS auctions is provided. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Jobs specialization versus unemployment: more on the productivity effect of unemployment benefits

We use the Marimon and Zilibotti (Econ J 109: 266–291, 1999) circle model and we endogenize the choice of the degree of specialization of jobs. We show that an increase in unemployment benefits not only reduces the mismatch of talents (as in Marimon and Zilibotti), but it also raises the degree of specialization of jobs. This reinforces the productivity enhancing effects of unemployment benefits.      

Auctions with ex post uncertainty

Uncertainty about ex post realized values is an inherent component in many auction environments. In this article, we develop a structural framework to analyze auction data subject to ex post uncertainty as a pure risk. We consider a low‐price sealed‐bid auction model with heterogeneous bidders' preferences and ex post uncertainty. The uncertainty can be common to all bidders or idiosyncratic. We derive the model restrictions and study nonparametric and semiparametric identification of the model primitives under exogenous and endogenous participation. We then develop multistep nonparametric and semiparametric estimation procedures in both cases.     

What European Union in the “Age of Uncertainty”? Weathering the Geopolitical Storms in a World of Perpetual Crises

Intereconomics - A world of risks and uncertainties can also be a world of opportunities. How and how quickly the EU adapts to the socio-political, economic, energy and climate transitions at hand,...