Monitoring credit risk in the social economy sector by means of a binary goal programming model

Monitoring the credit risk of firms in the social economy sector presents a considerable challenge, since it is difficult to calculate ratings with traditional methods such as logit or discriminant analysis, due to the relatively small number of firms in the sector and the low default rate among cooperatives. This paper introduces a goal programming model to overcome such constraints and to successfully manage credit risk using economic and financial information, as well as expert advice. After introducing the model, its application to a set of Spanish cooperative societies is described.     

What Do OECD Countries Cut First When Faced with Fiscal Adjustments?

Following the present scale of fiscal imbalances in developed countries, significant fiscal consolidation will be inevitable in the coming years. Fiscal discipline will require cuts in government expenditure, leading to trade‐offs between different components of government expenditure. In this article, we explore the relationship between components of government expenditure and government size during the period 1970‐2007 for a sample of 25 developed countries to shed light on how fiscal discipline might influence public spending composition in the coming years. Using the Pooled Mean Group estimation we find that fiscal adjustments protect functions that have both a social and productive character, such as education and health spending. In addition, the most productive spending, that related to transport and communications, is also isolated from budgetary cuts. This result shows evidence of governments reacting to the voter's increasing realization that reducing productive expenditures harms long‐term economic growth by striking a balance between utility and economic‐growth‐enhancing expenditure.     

Random non-response in multi-character surveys

In the present investigation, we have made first shot to propose an alternative estimator of population total, in the presence of random non-response, for multi-characteristics by using probability proportional to size and without replacement (PPSWOR) sampling when the selection probabilities are poorly correlated with the study variables. The mean square error (MSE) expressions are derived for the proposed estimator. The behavior of the proposed estimator has been examined under super population model. An empirical study has also been carried out to look into the performance of the proposed estimator. The proposed estimator has been applied to real data set.     

Can migration reduce civil conflicts as an antidote to rent-seeking?

In this paper, I investigate whether access to migration reduces the positive effect of natural resources on the onset of civil conflicts shown in the literature. There is a negative and significant correlation between the interaction variable “migration rate-natural resources” and the probability of outbreak of civil wars, showing that the effect of natural resources is conditional on the migration rate. Simulations to quantify the marginal effects of the interaction term show that a migration rate equal to 6% or higher dampens the effect of natural resources on civil wars. To address the potential endogeneity problem in estimating the relationship between civil conflicts and migration, although I distinguish economic migrants from refugees, I also use an IV approach. In this respect, the negative effect of the two interacting variables on the probability of outbreak of civil wars remains robust after having instrumented the migration rate by using the gravity-based predicted emigration rate. Given the endogenous nature of the ratio of primary exports to GDP, in addition, the study directly utilizes the emigration rates as an alternate robust method to estimate the primary issue on civil conflicts. The results show that only the civil conflicts caused by natural resources are negatively impacted by emigration rates.     

Real Convergence and European Integration: The Experience of the Less Developed EU Members

This study aims at providing an assessment about real convergence across countriesand regions in the EU, focusing more specifically on the four cohesion EU members.The results show that in the course of the last few years a process of convergence hastaken place between the per capita income levels of the EU regions and also, to a largerextent, of the Member States. Nevertheless, advances in real convergence are largelydetermined by the growth strategy implemented by the countries themselves. Lastly,our study suggests that the Community's regional policy has played a significant rolein favor of real convergence between the Member States of the EU. One importantlesson to be drawn is that the accession is likely to contribute significantly to improvingthe possibilities of the current Central and East European countries (CEECs) candidatesin aligning their per capita income levels with those of the EU members.