Act similarity in case-based decision theory

Summary Case-Based Decision Theory (CBDT) postulates that decision making under uncertainty is based on analogies to past cases. In its original version, it suggests that each of the available acts is ranked according to its own performance in similar decision problems encountered in the past.The purpose of this paper is to extend CBDT to deal with cases in which the evaluation of an act may also depend on past performance of different, but similar acts. To this end we provide a behavioral axiomatic definition of the similarity function over problem-act pairs (and not over problem pairs alone, as in the original model).We propose a model in which preferences are context-dependent. For each conceivable history of outcomes (to be thought of as the context of decision) there is a preference order over acts. If these context-dependent preference relations satisfy our consistency-across-contexts axioms, there is an essentially unique similarity function that represents these preferences via the (generalized) CBDT functional.We are grateful to Akihiko Matsui for the discussions that motivated this work. We also thank Enriqueta Aragones, Roger Myerson, Zvika Neeman, Ariel Rubinstein, Peyton Young, and an anonymous referee for their comments. Partial financial support from the Alfred Sloan Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.     

Public education under capital mobility

The paper considers a two-country model of overlapping generations economies with intergenerational transfers motivated by altruism and investment in human capital. We examine in a non-stationary competitive equilibrium the optimal provision of education with and without capital market integration. First, we explore how regimes of education provision—public, private or mixed—arise and how they affect the dynamics of autarkic economies. Second, we study the effects of capital market integration, in equilibrium, on the optimal provision of education. Third, we show that capital market integration enhances government intervention in the provision of public education (to improve the welfare of its constituents) and consider various solutions to such a competition.     

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION,INVESTMENT AND BORROWING WITH EXCHANGE RATE RISK AND FUTURES MARKETS

In this paper we consider a multinational firm under exchange rate and interest rate risks in a multiperiod model. We analyze the impact of exchange rate uncertainty and the use of currency futures on the risk-averse firm's decisions about home and foreign production. Without any hedging markets exchange rate risk lowers foreign investment and output. However, when futures markets exist, the separation property holds. Introducing another source of uncertainty, such as the interest rate, which is nondiversifiable, affects the production in both countries, i.e., the separation property does not hold. However, we show that the adverse effect of the missing financial market (to hedge against this additional risk) disappears when international borrowing is available.     

Reaction to price changes and aspiration level adjustments

   Abstract. We claim that preferences of economic agents cannot be assumed given; rather, they are partly determined by the process of trade in the market, by information about the latter and so forth. In other words, preferences determine actions which, in turn, determine preferences. Thus classical tools of analysis such as the neo-classical utility function and the demand curve should be viewed merely as first approximations, which are too simplistic for many purposes. Changing preferences are not restricted to such phenomena as addiction, advertisement and so forth. Rather, for any product a satisficing consumer has an aspiration level, which is subject to change. The consumer's preferences, as reflected in choice behavior, will also change once the aspiration level is adjusted. We illustrate these claims by analyzing two examples concerning consumer reaction to price increases. We analyze the effect of aspiration level adjustments on the dynamic pattern of a single consumer's demand, and show that such adjustments generate predictions which do not conform to the neo-classical theory.     

The complexity of the consumer problem

A literal interpretation of neo-classical consumer theory suggests that the consumer solves a very complex problem. In the presence of indivisible goods, the consumer problem is NP-Hard, and it appears unlikely that it can be optimally solved by a human. Two implications of this observation are that (i) households may imitate each other’s choices; (ii) households may adopt heuristics that give rise to the phenomenon of mental accounting.     

Trabajar o no trabajar: evolución del compromiso no económico con el empleo y sus determinantes

A partir de datos transversales relativos a Israel de 1981, 1993 y 2006, basados en respuestas a la pregunta de si se seguiría trabajando tras ganar la lotería, se investiga el compromiso no económico con el trabajo (NFEC), tratando de identificar las variables demográficas y las dimensiones del «significado del trabajo» que funcionan como predictores, sobre la base de estudios previos en todo el mundo. Se observa un marcado descenso del NFEC y un cambio en sus determinantes en el nuevo milenio. Los autores lo relacionan con la evolución económica y social reciente, tendiente a un mayor individualismo.     

Dynamics of inductive inference in a unified framework

We present a model of inductive inference that includes, as special cases, Bayesian reasoning, case-based reasoning, and rule-based reasoning. This unified framework allows us to examine how the various modes of inductive inference can be combined and how their relative weights change endogenously. For example, we establish conditions under which an agent who does not know the structure of the data generating process will decrease, over the course of her reasoning, the weight of credence put on Bayesian vs. non-Bayesian reasoning. We illustrate circumstances under which probabilistic models are used until an unexpected outcome occurs, whereupon the agent resorts to more basic reasoning techniques, such as case-based and rule-based reasoning, until enough data are gathered to formulate a new probabilistic model.     

Firm specific and macro herding by professional and amateur investors and their effects on market volatility

We find a herding tendency among both amateur and professional investors and conclude that the propensity to herd is lower in the professionals. These results are obtained both when we consider herding into individual stocks and herding into stocks in general. Herding depends on the firm’s systematic risk and size, and the professionals are less sensitive to these variables. The differences between the amateurs and the professionals may be attributable to the latter’s superior financial training. Most of the results are consistent with the theory that herding is information-based. We also find that the herding behavior of the two groups is a persistent phenomenon, and that it is positively and significantly correlated with stock market returns’ volatility. Finally, herding, mainly by amateurs, causes market volatility in the Granger causality sense.     

Explicating the Reverse Internationalization Processes of Firms

ABSTRACT

Reverse internationalization (RI) is a crucial phenomenon in a world of globalization; however, research on RI remains scarce. In light of the 2008–2009 economical global crises, many internationalizing firms worldwide have deinternationalized. Given that scholars and functionaries have been sending warning signals about imminent global crisis, revisiting the RI domain and its drivers is a timely and important research area.

This study uses a qualitative approach with a prime objective of exploratory work and theory development of RI. The study explicates the RI phenomenon further, proposes a broader RI conceptualization and an operational definition, and develops propositions and a model to direct future research and assist managers. Grounded in data emerged from field in-depth interviews of senior managers, findings show that RI emerges as a multifaceted formative construct reflecting a reduction in firms’ activities on one or more explicit dimensions. Various internal and external factors foster RI. Since firms apply sophisticated forms of international involvement, RI domain should address its wide-ranging forms with a clearer and richer view that facilitates its conceptualization. Managers learn to pay attention to likely scenarios where episodes in internationalization may arise and lead to RI and of ways to approach them.