Combining biodiversity modeling with political and economic development scenarios for 25 EU countries

In the EURURALIS project, a chain of models was used to predict the changes in sustainable development indicators for European human well-being, ecology and economy issues, for four alternative scenarios of the future socio-economic development. This paper describes the biodiversity analysis of the project. Models based on general relationships between environmental factors and biodiversity loss were combined with socio-economic, land-use and environmental models to derive data that were integrated into an interactive tool for policy makers. The biodiversity analysis takes into account the effects of land-use change, climate change, fragmentation by major roads, area of unfragmented patches, nitrogen deposition, forestry and disturbance. Results show that biodiversity is projected to decrease between now and 2030 in most countries for all scenarios, indicating that it is unlikely that the EU will be able to fulfill its commitment to stop biodiversity loss by 2010. This is mainly due to urbanization and increase in stress factors, and outweighs the area increase of nature arising from land abandonment. Merits, limitations and uncertainties of this approach to biodiversity assessment are discussed.     

Extraction of an Exhaustible Resource: The Effects on Investment of Several Parameters Being Subject to Uncertainty*

This article shows that the effect on investment of the introduction of uncertainty about the size of one parameter depends on what other parameters are simultaneously uncertain. Further, two parameters may be linked with positive or negative covariances. The covariances are here shown to have important effects on the investor, whether risk neutral or risk averse. Governments are advked to consider policies that affect the covariances of those parameters that are key influences on in vestment.     

Random coefficient regression and the long-run phillips curve for the U.S.

This research suggests that a random coefficient regression model is well-suited for analyzing long-run versus short-run movements in wages and unemployment and is an improvement over some empirical techniques typically used.     

ASSESSING THE COMPETITION FACED BY OIL PIPELINES

This paper assesses the competition faced by oil pipelines. It also uses a new procedure and new data to test whether oil pipeline markets are competitive or monopolistic, under standard definitions. The key innovation of the paper is a new approach to the definition of the relevant market(s) in which oil pipelines operate. While recognizing that pipeline monopsony also could be a problem under certain conditions, the paper argues that these conditions are unlikely to arise and that if they do, it is unclear whether pipeline owners would be in a position to exploit them. The study offers new evidence to fuel the 80-year-old debate over pipeline rates and regulation.     

Soviet agricultural procurement pricing: A study in perversity

The relationship between Soviet agricultural procurement prices and quantities is examined in the light of the existence of bonuses for above-trend sales (BATS) and zonal price differentiation (ZPD). That BATS leads to a positive relationship between prices and quantities as harvest conditions vary is shown to hold for the individual farm. Planners are apt, however, to be more concerned with the “average” price of a crop, which is closely related to the subsidy bill. This price is more likely to be “perverse” under ZPD than BATS, although neither guarantees perversity. Data suggest that such perversity is a common occurrence. J. Comp. Econ., March 1985, 9(1), pp. 24–45. Illinois State University, Normal, Illinois 61761.     

A note on the statistical properties of aggregate q measures

Many different measures of Tobin's q have been proposed which differ in measurement methods and data sources. This paper evaluates the similarities and differences in the statistical properties of the different measures using ARIMA and factor analysis methods. The statistical properties of average and marginal q measures are found to be quite different.