Consumer Preferences for Food Label Information: A Basis for Segmentation

Analysis of consumer reactions to food labeling alternatives using conjoint measurement raises questions concerning policy proposals to provide consumers with information. Conjoint measurement permits analysis of components of consumer perceptions without tedious data collection and analysis procedures. The study indicates that consumer preferences for information vary widely and an optimal policy should provide different labels for different market segments. Increasing the amount of information may reduce its effectiveness among the low income consumers it is intended to help.     

In-Kind Food Assistance and Consumer Food Choice

In-kind food assistance was the mainstay of federal food programs until the food stamp program expanded. Analysis of aggregate data suggests that large donations of cheese and butter since 1982, through the Temporary Emergency Food Assistance Program, replaced recipients’ normal purchases of the donated products, reduced consumption of close substitutes, and increased consumption of certain other protein foods. Programs of this type appear to have limited ability to enhance total demand for products in surplus.     

Prices Paid in Grocery Markets: Searching Across Stores and Brands

Using a large sample of prices paid for 21 homogeneous grocery products available in several brands in each of 16 markets, we simulate the search behavior of a consumer following different shopping strategies using as many as four supermarkets. We find that price search can lead to substantial savings. Brand switching can generate savings at least as large as visiting multiple stores to find the lowest price for a single brand. Buying a private label is usually a better way to save than any amount of search for low prices on national brands. A case study in a small metropolitan area grocery market yields results substantially the same as the simulation results.     

Credit Rationing,Income Exaggeration,and Adverse Selection in the Mortgage Market

We examine the role of borrower concerns about future credit availability in mitigating the effects of adverse selection and income misrepresentation in the mortgage market. We show that the majority of additional risk associated with “low‐doc” mortgages originated prior to the Great Recession was due to adverse selection on the part of borrowers who could verify income but chose not to. We provide novel evidence that these borrowers were more likely to inflate or exaggerate their income. Our analysis suggests that recent regulatory changes that have essentially eliminated the low‐doc loan product would result in credit rationing against self‐employed borrowers.     

When Do Analysts Adjust for Biases in Management Guidance? Effects of Guidance Track Record and Analysts’ Incentives

Prior research indicates that analysts do not fully adjust for the general downward bias in earnings guidance issued by management. We report the results of two experiments designed to investigate how guidance track record and analysts’ incentives jointly explain the extent to which analysts adjust for guidance bias. Our results suggest that analysts with accuracy incentives adjust for management’s track record of downwardly biased guidance when the bias is relatively small (one cent), but those with relationship incentives do not. Furthermore, the difference in adjustment is larger when the bias track record is inconsistent than when it is consistent. Also, when guidance bias is larger (two cents) relative to smaller (one cent), analysts with relationship incentives partially adjust, as they appear to strike a balance between accuracy and their desire to please management. These findings hold implications for investors, regulators, and the interpretation of prior research.     

Does Pension Wealth Peak at the Age of Early Retirement?

Once an employee has qualified for early retirement, continuing to work involves an implicit tax in the form of forgone pension payments. We explore this implicit pension tax in a Canadian setting and find that, contrary to Lazear (1983), but consistent with most U.S. studies, pension wealth generally does not peak at the date of first eligibility for early retirement. We highlight the importance of the earnings path posited for older workers, anticipated enrichments to flat benefit formulas, and the distinction between reduced and unreduced early retirement as determinants of this result.     

A Nonparametric Approach to Pricing and Hedging Derivative Securities Via Learning Networks

We propose a nonparametric method for estimating the pricing formula of a derivative asset using learning networks. Although not a substitute for the more traditional arbitrage-based pricing formulas, network-pricing formulas may be more accurate and computationally more efficient alternatives when the underlying asset's price dynamics are unknown, or when the pricing equation associated with the no-arbitrage condition cannot be solved analytically. To assess the potential value of network pricing formulas, we simulate Black-Scholes option prices and show that learning networks can recover the Black-Scholes formula from a two-year training set of daily options prices, and that the resulting network formula can be used successfully to both price and delta-hedge options out-of-sample. For comparison, we estimate models using four popular methods: ordinary least squares, radial basis function networks, multilayer perceptron networks, and projection pursuit. To illustrate the practical relevance of our network pricing approach, we apply it to the pricing and delta-hedging of S&P 500 futures options from 1987 to 1991.     

Review Essay

What Do We Produce in the “Knowledge Factory”and for Whom? A Review Essay of The Knowledge Factory by Stanley Aronowitz