The Effect of Government Regulations on Personal Loan Markets: A Tobit Estimation of a Microeconomic Model

The purpose of this paper is to analyze both theoretically and empirically the effect of selected government regulations on a high-risk personal loan market. Unlike previous studies, which have generally relied on a loosely specified theory and then tested this theory with statewide aggregate data, our analysis is based on a more tightly specified model for individual loans which is then tested using statewide disaggregated data. The empirical results indicate that the regulatory effects are not only significant but consistent with our theoretical microeconomic model.     

SOME PUBLIC POLICY ISSUES RAISED BY THE DEREGULATION OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Successful deregulation of financial institutions promotes flexibility and effeciency while avoiding the instabilities and abuses that characterized the financial system prior to the reform legislation of the 1930s. It is essential that deregulation nut undermine the efficacy of deposit insurance. The growth of money market funds has already resulted in a shift from insured to uninsured accounts. With deregulation there will be much larger shifts of funds to uninsured transactios accounts. In a deregulated world, it is essential that insurance be extended to cover transactions accounts, no matter who issues them, The paper also asserts that existing statutes are inadequate to deal with the conflicts of interest and anti-competitive practices that are likely to occur with deregulation. Safeguards should be established before deregulation goes any further. Finally, it is argued that in a deregulated environment, most forms of money will pay interest, and required reserves will disappear. While these developments will not destroy the efficacy of monetary policy, they will affect it. Little work has been done an the issue of monetary policy in a deregulated world. The paper discusses existing studies and suggests some topics for future research.     

Return,Risk, and Yield: Evidence from Ex Ante Data

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between return and yield in the context of ex ante data from The Value Line Investment Survey and by examining the role of dividends as a proxy for risk. The use of ex ante data should substantially reduce the confounding of tax and information effects that has affected earlier studies. Heteroscedasticity is detected in the after-tax CAPM and found to be negatively related to yield and positively related to beta. Maximum likelihood methods are used to correct for heteroscedasticity and generate efficient coefficient estimates. Using data for each of the years 1973 through 1983, there is an overall positive relationship between expected return and yield. However, coefficient estimates of yield are highly variable from year to year.     

Reinforcement Learning and Savings Behavior

We show that individual investors over‐extrapolate from their personal experience when making savings decisions. Investors who experience particularly rewarding outcomes from 401(k) saving—a high average and/or low variance return—increase their 401(k) savings rate more than investors who have less rewarding experiences. This finding is not driven by aggregate time‐series shocks, income effects, rational learning about investing skill, investor fixed effects, or time‐varying investor‐level heterogeneity that is correlated with portfolio allocations to stock, bond, and cash asset classes. We discuss implications for the equity premium puzzle and interventions aimed at improving household financial outcomes.     

The Effect of Audit Quality on Earnings Management*

This study examines the relation between audit quality and earnings management. Consistent with prior research, we treat audit quality as a dichotomous variable and assume that Big Six auditors are of higher quality than non-Big Six auditors. Earnings management is captured by discretionary accruals that are estimated using a cross-sectional version of the Jones 1991 model. Prior literature suggests that auditors are more likely to object to management's accounting choices that increase earnings (as opposed to decrease earnings) and that auditors are more likely to be sued when they are associated with financial statements that overstate earnings (as compared to understate earnings). Therefore, we hypothesize that clients of non-Big Six auditors report discretionary accruals that increase income relatively more than the discretionary accruals reported by clients of Big Six auditors. This hypothesis is supported by evidence from a sample of 10,379 Big Six and 2,179 non-Big Six firm years. Specifically, clients of non-Big Six auditors report discretionary accruals that are, on average, 1.5-2.1 percent of total assets higher than the discretionary accruals reported by clients of Big Six auditors. Also, consistent with earnings management, we find that the mean and median of the absolute value of discretionary accruals are greater for firms with non-Big Six auditors. This result also indicates that lower audit quality is associated with more “accounting flexibility”.     

The Integration of Insurance and Taxes in Corporate Pension Strategy

This paper examines the implications of the joint effects of insurance and taxes for the optimal corporate pension strategy. It is shown that neither the “mini-max” nor the “maxi-min” strategy advocated by previous authors is necessarily best in corporate pension management. In the presence of capital market imperfections, the analysis via a single-period contingent-claims model indicates that optimal corporate pension strategy in both asset-allocation and funding decisions can be a noncorner interior solution.     

International Capital Structure Equilibrium

This paper develops a theory of capital structure in an international setting with corporate and personal taxes. We generalize the Miller analysis to an international equilibrium characterized by differential international taxation and inflation in otherwise perfect international capital markets. Our analysis highlights the key role that corporate tax arbitrage plays in generating an international capital structure equilibrium, and we set forth a number of mechanisms for tax arbitrage transactions. We close the paper by outlining some implications of our analysis for national differences in capital structure, the International Fisher Effect, and international tax effects on yield differentials.