Housing and the Macroeconomy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator

Three themes connecting housing and the macroeconomy are discussed. First, evidence is presented for the property market as one of the drivers of U.S. consumer price inflation. Second, key drivers of house prices are explained to account for the remarkable diversity of international experience. Finally, three potential links between housing, credit, and the financial accelerator are discussed. These are the consumption channel, the investment channel, and feedback between bad loans and risk‐spreads via the financial system—and how institutional differences between countries can explain the presence, absence and magnitudes of these linkages.     

SMOKE-FREE LAWS AND EMPLOYEE TURNOVER

This study examines how smoke-free laws influence turnover among restaurant workers. The study uses a unique data set of payroll records of a franchisee of a national full-service restaurant chain operating 23 restaurants in the state of Arizona, a state where several communities have adopted smoke-free laws. Municipal smoke-free laws did not, on average, have a statistically significant effect on the probability of employee separation in the years after implementation. These results suggest that training costs associated with employee turnover would not rise for full-service restaurants in municipalities that adopt smoke-free laws. ( JEL I18, J63)     

Strategy-Proofness and the Tops-Only Property

A social choice function satisfies the tops‐only property if the chosen alternative only depends on each person's report of his most‐preferred alternatives on the range of this function. On many domains, strategy‐proofness implies the tops‐only property provided that the range of the social choice function satisfies some regularity condition. The existing proofs of this result are model specific. In this paper, a general proof strategy is proposed for showing that a strategy‐proof social choice function satisfies the tops‐only property when everyone has the same set of admissible preferences.     

In Search of Distress Risk

This paper explores the determinants of corporate failure and the pricing of financially distressed stocks whose failure probability, estimated from a dynamic logit model using accounting and market variables, is high. Since 1981, financially distressed stocks have delivered anomalously low returns. They have lower returns but much higher standard deviations, market betas, and loadings on value and small‐cap risk factors than stocks with low failure risk. These patterns are more pronounced for stocks with possible informational or arbitrage‐related frictions. They are inconsistent with the conjecture that the value and size effects are compensation for the risk of financial distress.     

Emergence of Captive Finance Companies and Risk Segmentation in Loan Markets: Theory and Evidence

A seller with some degree of market power in its product market can earn rents. In this context, there is a gain to granting credit to purchase of the product and thus to the establishment of a captive finance company. This paper examines the optimal behavior of such a durable good seller and its captive finance company. The model predicts a critical difference between the captive finance company's credit standard and that of independent lenders (banks), namely, that the captive finance company will adopt a more lenient credit standard. Thus, we should expect the likelihood of repayment of a captive loan to be lower than that of a bank loan, other things equal. This prediction is tested using a unique data set drawn from a major credit bureau in the United States, and the evidence supports the theoretical prediction.     

High‐Performance Work System and Organizational Turnover in East and Southeast Asian Countries1

In this paper, we examine the impact of high‐performance work systems (HPWSs) on both voluntary and involuntary organizational turnover rates. Most research on this topic has been done in the United States. Given the global competitive pressures confronting many of the countries of East and Southeast Asia, companies in this region are seeking to become more flexible and often adapt HPWSs practices. We explore the impact of HPWSs in both locally owned companies and subsidiaries of multinational corporations in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand. These countries have significantly different national cultures from the United States and most other Western countries and HPWSs effects in relation to turnover might vary from the studies based in the United States. Our findings are, however, somewhat consistent with U.S.‐based studies. In fact, HPWSs were found to be more effective in reducing turnover in locally owned companies than in subsidiaries of Western and Japanese multinational companies.     

Efficient Funds in a Financial Market with Options: a New Irrelevance Proposition

Under the same assumptions that Ross used to assert the existence of an efficient fund (on which a spanning set of options can be written) we prove that almost any portfolio is an efficient fund. From a constructive point of view, a randomly chosen vector of portfolio weights yields an efficient fund. When the Ross assumptions are relaxed, a limited notion of efficiency-maximal efficiency-is the best attainable. The maximally efficient funds are also everywhere dense in the portfolio space. Some implications are discussed and illustrative examples given.     

Job Security Provisions and Employment: Revised Estimates

This article provides estimates of the effect of statutory severance pay and notice on four labor market outcome indicators, closely following Lazear (1990) but correcting for errors in his dependent variables and covariates. Although we corroborate the directional influence of severance pay for three of the indicators, there is little to suggest that its contribution to rising unemployment is material. Also contrary to Lazear, longer notice appears to be associated with broadly favorable outcomes.     

Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market

This paper presents empirical tests of market rationality using data from the point spread betting market on National Football League games. Data from this market avoid many common pitfalls of tests of rationality in conventional financial markets. The authors test for rationality with two types of tests, statistical and economic. Results of the tests reveal that the statistical tests cannot reject market rationality while the economic tests do reject market rationality.