Presidential Address: Discount Rates

Discount‐rate variation is the central organizing question of current asset‐pricing research. I survey facts, theories, and applications. Previously, we thought returns were unpredictable, with variation in price‐dividend ratios due to variation in expected cashflows. Now it seems all price‐dividend variation corresponds to discount‐rate variation. We also thought that the cross‐section of expected returns came from the CAPM. Now we have a zoo of new factors. I categorize discount‐rate theories based on central ingredients and data sources. Incorporating discount‐rate variation affects finance applications, including portfolio theory, accounting, cost of capital, capital structure, compensation, and macroeconomics.     

Advance Notice and Job Search: More on the Value of an Early Start

This paper investigates the effects of advance notice of impending job loss on the length of jobless spells of displaced workers. We evaluate the performance of a formal search model and offer a generalization of the model that provides an alternative but related approach to the most recent empirically based literature. Evidence of gains from early search are found for all broad gender-occupation groups except blue-collar males.     

Capital Market Experience for Financial Accounting Students*

Abstract. In this paper we present an innovative teaching tool for introductory financial accounting students that promotes active learning using methods at the frontier of market research. We describe the implementation of an asset market where students assume the role of traders in order to learn the role of information in price formation. We discuss the pedagogical questions which are addressed in the design of this market, and we relate the responses to questionnaires distributed to students at the end of the quarter. When we control for prior grade point averages (GPAs) of students, we find that those who participate in the market had better classroom performance. Résumé. Les auteurs présentent ici un instrument pédagogique innovateur, à l'intention des étudiants des cours d'introduction à la comptabilité financière, favorisant l'apprentissage dynamique grâce à l'utilisation de méthodes voisinant de près l'étude de marché. Ils décrivent la mise en place d'un marché de biens où les étudiants assument les fonctions de négociateurs en vue d'apprendre quel est le rôle de l'information dans la formation des prix. Ils analysent les questions pédagogiques que soulève la conception de ce marché et font état des réponses des étudiants aux questionnaires qui leur sont distribués à la fin du trimestre. Lorsqu'ils contrôlent les notes moyennes antérieures des étudiants, les auteurs constatent que ceux qui ont participé au marché font preuve d'un rendement supérieur en classe.     

In Search of Distress Risk

This paper explores the determinants of corporate failure and the pricing of financially distressed stocks whose failure probability, estimated from a dynamic logit model using accounting and market variables, is high. Since 1981, financially distressed stocks have delivered anomalously low returns. They have lower returns but much higher standard deviations, market betas, and loadings on value and small‐cap risk factors than stocks with low failure risk. These patterns are more pronounced for stocks with possible informational or arbitrage‐related frictions. They are inconsistent with the conjecture that the value and size effects are compensation for the risk of financial distress.     

The Effects of Delays on the Stability and Rate of Convergence to Equilibrium of Oligopolies*

The stability of oligopolies is investigated using the Cournot strategy and a general output adjustment procedure. Information delays are incorporated in the adjustment procedure and their specific effects upon the dynamic stability of oligopolies is investigated. The stability of equilibrium for discrete models is unaffected by information delays and remoteness of planning horizons; however the rate of convergence to equilibrium may be slowed. For continuous models with delays, some restraints are required for stability.     

THE UK ECONOMY: ANALYSIS AND PROSPECTS

In this section of the review, Oxford Economic Forecasting providesan analysis of the current economic climate in the UK and abroadas well as setting out the main features of its latest forecast.In Section II the UK forecast up to 1988 is described. In SectionIII, following the theme of this issue, we analyse the effectsof changes in trend productivity growth on the UK economy.