Investment in Commodities Futures: The Accounting Implications

There are no rules within existing Generally Accepted Accounting Principles that apply to investment in commodities futures. In this paper, the accounting implications of investing in futures are explored. The accounting problems relate to the first record of the contract and to the subsequent recognition of gains and losses. There is no unequivocal answer under GAAP as to how futures contracts should be recorded. As with many other items in conventional accounting practice, the method of recording depends upon managers'intentions. This has obvious, and serious, implications for auditors.     

Stock returns and real activity in an inflationary environment: The informational impact of FAS No. 33*

Abstract. This paper empirically assesses the degree to which current cost data as required by Financial Accounting Standards Statement No. 33 might implicitly be used by equity market participants. Studies to date, focusing on income measures, documented little or no effect of the data on prices. We argue here that income was the wrong focus. Instead, because current costs can be used to construct quantity indexes and hence measure real productive growth of the firm, the focus should be on the test of association between real productivity (obtained by use of current cost data) and stock returns rather than between income measures and stock returns. Therefore, this paper tests for whether growth measure (of real productive output) which can be obtained by utilizing current cost information and which cannot be obtained without such information, can explain cross-sectional variation in security returns beyond measures based on historical costs. Returns should be more highly associated with current cost based measures of real productive growth than with similar measures based on historical cost, if the current cost data have value. Like the time-series macroeconomic analysis done by Fama (1981), our cross-sectional microeconomic analysis relying on current cost accounting data suggests that security returns are positively related to real productive activity. Moreover, the tests seem to suggest that current cost data, on the margin, reflect productive activity information that may not be already contained in historical cost accounting data. Résumé. Cet article évalue de façon empirique jusqu'à quel point les données au coût actuel requises en vertu de l'énoncé no. 33 (Financial Accounting Standards Statement No. 33) pourraient implicitement être utilisées par les participants au marché des actions. Les études antérieures, portant sur des mesures de bénéfice, ont conclu à peu ou pas d'effet sur les cours imputable à ces données. Nous soutenons ici que le bénéfice ne constituait pas le bon centre d'intérêt. Au lieu de cela, du fait que les coûts actuels peuvent être utilisés afin d'élaborer des indices de quantité et, de là, mesurer la croissance de la productivité réelle de la firme, le centre d'intérêt devrait plutôt tourner autour d'un test du lien entre la productivité réelle (obtenue par l'utilisation des données au coût actuel) et les rendements des actions plutôt qu'entre des mesures de bénéfice et le rendement des actions. Dès lors, cet article examine si une mesure de croissance (de la productivité réelle) pouvant être obtenue à partir de l'information au coût actuel et qui ne peut être dégagée sans une telle information, peut expliquer davantage les variations (en coupe transversale) des rendements des titres que ne le font des mesures fondées sur les coûts d'origine. La relation entre les rendements et les mesures de productivité réelle fondées sur le coût actuel devrait être plus robuste que celle entre des mesures similaires fondées sur le coût d'origine, si tant est que les données au coût actuel présentent une valeur. À l'instar de l'analyse macroéconomique de séries chronologiques effectuée par Fama (1981), notre analyse microéconomique en coupe transversale fondée sur des données au coût actuel semble indiquer que les rendements des titres sont reliés positivement à l'activité productive réelle. En outre, les tests laissent supposer qu'à la marge, les données au coût actuel reflètent une information d'activité productive qui, actuellement, pourrait ne pas être véhiculée par les données comptables exprimées au coût d'origine.     

Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes—A Trap?

We analyze the role of an exchange rate peg as a commitment mechanism to achieve inflation stability when multiple equilibria are possible. We show that there are ex ante large gains from choosing a more conservative regime not only in order to mitigate inflation bias from time inconsistency but also to avoid high inflation equilibria. In these circumstances, using a pegged exchange rate as an anti-inflation commitment device can create a "trap" whereby the regime initially confers gains in anti-inflation credibility but ultimately results in an exit occasioned by a big enough adverse real shock that creates large welfare losses to the economy.     

Australian Banking Efficiency and Its Relation to Stock Returns

We used Data Envelopment Analysis to evaluate cost efficiency of Australian banks in producing banking services and profit between 1995 and 2002. Empirical results indicate the major banks have improved their efficiency in producing banking services and profit, while the regional banks have experienced little change in the efficiency of producing banking services, and a decline in the efficiency of producing profit. An attempt is made to relate the changes in efficiency to stock returns. Results indicate that for our sample, changes in firm efficiency are reflected in stock returns.     

PAYING FOR LOYALTY: PRODUCT BUNDLING IN OLIGOPOLY*

In recent times, pairs of retailers such as supermarket and retail gasoline chains have offered bundled discounts to customers who buy their respective product brands. These discounts are a fixed amount off the headline prices that allied brands continue to set independently. We show that a pair of firms can profit from offering a bundled discount to the detriment of other firms and consumers whose preferences are farther removed from the bundled brands. Indeed, when both pairs of firms negotiate bundling arrangements, there are no beneficiaries and consumers simply find themselves consuming a sub‐optimal brand mix.     

Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices?

This paper documents strong evidence for behavioral biases among Chicago Board of Trade proprietary traders and investigates the effect these biases have on prices. Our traders appear highly loss‐averse, regularly assuming above‐average afternoon risk to recover from morning losses. This behavior has important short‐term consequences for afternoon prices, as losing traders actively purchase contracts at higher prices and sell contracts at lower prices than those that prevailed previously. However, the market appears to distinguish these risk‐seeking trades from informed trading. Prices set by loss‐averse traders are reversed significantly more quickly than those set by unbiased traders.     

Supply‐Side Policies in the Depression: Evidence from France

The effects of supply‐side policies in depressed economies are controversial. We shed light on this debate using evidence from France in the 1930s. In 1936, France departed from the gold standard and implemented mandatory wage increases and hours restrictions. Deflation ended but output stagnated. We present time‐series and cross‐sectional evidence that these supply‐side policies, in particular the 40‐hour law, contributed to French stagflation. These results are inconsistent both with the standard one‐sector New Keynesian model and with a medium scale, multisector model calibrated to match our cross‐sectional estimates. We conclude that the New Keynesian model is a poor guide to the effects of supply‐side shocks in depressed economies.     

A Model of Asymmetric Employer Learning with Testable Implications

This paper helps close the gap between theory and empirical evidence in the literature on asymmetric employer learning. If an employer's private learning is reflected in a worker's wage and one employer's private information is transmitted to the next when the worker makes a job-to-job transition, then asymmetric employer learning will appear in wage regressions as learning over an employment spell. Extending previous work that assumes all learning takes place publicly, this paper develops wage regressions that test for both asymmetric employer learning and public learning. The empirical results, including tests of alternative explanations, are consistent with asymmetric employer learning's having at least as much of an effect on wages during an employment spell as does public learning. The model developed in this paper illustrates how the story suggested by the empirical work might unfold. It shows that outside firms can profitably compete with a better-informed employer through bidding wars, even when the worker is equally productive in all firms. Furthermore, this competition results in different wages for workers with the same publicly observable characteristics, a result that previous models of asymmetric learning have not produced.     

EXAMINING THE OBSTACLES TO BROADENING PARTICIPATION IN COMPUTING: EVIDENCE FROM A SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL WORKERS

This article describes the results of a survey of professional workers that was designed to explore the underlying reasons for the widely documented underrepresentation of women in information technology (IT) jobs. Our analysis suggests that it is different occupational personalities between men and women rather than the demanding nature of IT work that is largely responsible for the relatively few women in IT occupations. We discuss the implications these results have for policies that are designed to create greater gender equity in the rapidly growing IT industries. ( JEL J08, J24, J70)     

Nominal GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule on an Even Playing Field

Some economists advocate nominal GDP targeting as an alternative to the Taylor Rule. These arguments are largely based on the idea that nominal GDP targeting would require less knowledge on the part of policymakers than a traditional Taylor Rule. In particular, a nominal GDP targeting rule would not require real-time knowledge of the output gap. We examine the importance of this claim by amending a standard New Keynesian model to assume that the central bank has imperfect information about the output gap and therefore must forecast the output gap based on previous information. Forecast errors by the central bank can then potentially induce unanticipated changes in the short-term nominal interest rate, distinct from a standard monetary policy shock. We show that forecast errors of the output gap by the Federal Reserve can account for up to 13% of the fluctuations in the output gap. In addition, our simulations imply that a nominal GDP targeting rule would produce lower volatility in both inflation and the output gap in comparison with the Taylor Rule under imperfect information.