ASSESSING THE QUALITY ERROR IN OUTPUT MEASURES: THE CASE OF REFRIGERATORS*

This paper computes new indexes of output for refrigerators, using hedonic methods to adjust for quality change. The hedonic technique is applied in a new way (it is used to make quality adjustments to prices before they are used in the index), and the results are compared with those from methods used in previous hedonic investigations. There are three major findings. (1) Overall (1960–1972), our hedonic deflated output series rise more rapidly than conventional measures, because the price indexes used for deflation rise more slowly. (2) The output measures fluctuate more than do output measures produced by conventional methods, because adding hedonic quality adjustments to WPI indexes moves them up in some years and down in others, and the resulting adjustments to the output series were positively correlated with changes in output. (3) Applying methods used in previous studies produces larger adjustments to the published indexes, suggesting that some of the differences noted in previous studies between hedonic indexes and official published indexes are related to computational methods, not to quality adjustment.     

Modelling economy-ecology linkages in mangroves: Economic evidence for promoting conservation in Bintuni Bay, Indonesia

Woodchip exports pose a potential threat to a 300 000-ha mangrove ecosystem in the Bintuni Bay area of Irian Jaya, Indonesia. The bay supports an important shrimp export industry, and coastal areas support 3000 households. Traditional non-commercial uses of mangroves have an estimated value of Rp20 billion/yr (US$10 million/yr); commercial fisheries are valued at Rp70 billion/yr (US$35 million/yr) and selective commercial mangrove cutting schemes have a maximum value of Rp40 billion/yr (US$20 million/yr).Forest management options, ranging from clear cutting to a cutting ban, are evaluated in a cost–benefit analysis incorporating linkages among mangrove conversion, offshore fishery productivity, traditional uses, and benefits of erosion control and biodiversity maintenance functions. “Linkage scenarios” are developed that reflect potential ecosystem component interactions in Bintuni Bay. Clear cutting is optimal only if linkages are ignored. A cutting ban is optimal if linear and immediate linkages between ecosystem components exist. Under a scenario with linear but delayed linkages of 5 years, selective cutting of 25% of the harvestable mangrove is the optimal strategy; it has a present value of Rp70 billion (US$35 million) greater than the clear cutting option, and more extensive cutting would yield no additional net benefits.Strong economic arguments exist for conservative mangrove clearing. Where strong ecological linkages occur, severe restrictions on clearing activities will be economically optimal. Where ecosystem dynamics are uncertain, programs reducing linkage effects – such as greenbelts, replanting, or selective cutting – will minimise potential economic losses.     

Model selection with estimated factors and idiosyncratic components

This paper provides consistent information criteria for the selection of forecasting models that use a subset of both the idiosyncratic and common factor components of a big dataset. This hybrid model approach has been explored by recent empirical studies to relax the strictness of pure factor‐augmented model approximations, but no formal model selection procedures have been developed. The main difference to previous factor‐augmented model selection procedures is that we must account for estimation error in the idiosyncratic component as well as the factors. Our main contribution is to show the conditions required for selection consistency of a class of information criteria that reflect this additional source of estimation error. We show that existing factor‐augmented model selection criteria are inconsistent in circumstances where N is of larger order than , where N and T are the cross‐section and time series dimensions of the dataset respectively, and that the standard Bayesian information criterion is inconsistent regardless of the relationship between N and T. We therefore propose a new set of information criteria that guarantee selection consistency in the presence of estimated idiosyncratic components. The properties of these new criteria are explored through a Monte Carlo simulation study. The paper concludes with an empirical application to long‐horizon exchange rate forecasting using a recently proposed model with country‐specific idiosyncratic components from a panel of global exchange rates.     

Physical correlates of perceived quality in lakeshore development

Abstract

This research examined dimensions of perception and preference for shoreline scenes. A systematic random sample of 63 shoreline scenes was obtained and photographed. Sixty adults were asked to sort the photographs of shoreline scenes in terms of similarity. They were also asked to identify the constructs which they used to sort and to rank the scenes in terms of preference. Comparisons of preferences by age, income, marital status, and sex groups indicated few significant differences and high correlations between the groups. Multidimensional scaling and canonical correlation revealed that a four‐dimensional solution‐Obtrusiveness in land/water barriers. Upkeep, Diverse/man‐made and Land‐use compatibility‐adequately described the dimensions of perception. The results of stepwise regression analysis indicated that preference increased with decreases in diversity, industry, streets, and land/ water barriers and with increases in vegetation and upkeep.     

The Environmental Attitudes and Practices of Family Businesses in the Rural Tourism and Hospitality Sectors

This paper examines the environmental goals of rural, family owned/operated tourism business with a view to evaluating their conservation ethic and commitment to sustainable tourism. From a survey of 198 family businesses in Western Australia, it was determined that about half of them had implemented a range of sustainable management practices. Future research needs are identified, and management ideas are suggested which could encourage the adoption of sustainable tourism practices in rural family businesses.     

Should there be more showers at the summer music festival? Studying the contextual dependence of resource consuming conventions and lessons for sustainable tourism

Summer music festivals that involve a few days of camping have often been linked to sustainability agendas. Yet relevant studies have so far overlooked how these events can themselves serve as experiments in less resource consumptive living. Building on a wider interest in the cultural evolution of cleanliness norms, this paper explores how attendees come to use water in personal washing at two UK festivals. Through survey, observation and interview research, it examines how current festival goers respond to the disruption of their usual washing regimes, paying particular attention to how a combination of social and infrastructural cues serves to encourage the emergence of a temporary new cleanliness culture. Doing so highlights the value of seeing human resource consumption as a matter of dynamic collective convention more than fixed personal preference since these respondents were seen to embrace a new relationship with washing that was otherwise deemed unthinkable. This leads to a broader discussion of how visitor needs and the social world are most usefully studied by both future festival organisers and the wider field of sustainable tourism research.     

Consumer protection in betting

Bettors have been virtually ignored by consumer protection bodies and interest groups. Since wagering contracts are unenforceable in British courts consumer law offers an unsatisfactory basis for bettor protection. The Gaming Board for Great Britain and its regulations offer the necessary protection to gaming consumers and betting needs to be brought under a similar regulatory authority. Draft regulations for this are proposed. They accord bookmakers the rights to engage or not engage in betting on any event from moment to moment and to offer any odds which they wish against the runners in the event. But these rights are subject to their being required, when they are betting, to display their odds, and take bets to a self-chosen amount to lose, on all runners in the event from any customer. They would also be required to display the price of a bet on the event with them in directly informative terms.

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Verbraucherschutz bei Wetten

Zusammenfassung In England sind Personen, die Wetten eingehen, von den Institutionen des Verbraucherschutzes im Grunde genommen völlig übersehen worden. Weil Wett-Verträge nach britischem Recht nicht einklagbar sind, gibt es kaum eine Basis für diese spezielle Form von Verbraucherschutz. Wohl aber bietet die englische Aufsichtsbehörde für das Spielwesen mit ihren Regelungen einen notwendigen Schutz für Personen, die spielen. Der Beitrag plädiert nun dafür, das Wett-Wesen in ähnlicher Weise einer Aufsichtsbehörde zu unterstellen wie das Spielwesen. Regelungen dafür werden vorgeschlagen.Danach sollen Buchmacher als Anbieter von Wett-Verträgen zwar eine weitgehend ungehinderte Möglichkeit haben, Wetten anzubieten. Diese Möglichkeit soll aber geknüpft sein an die Verpflichtung dazu, die Wettverhältnisse offen darzulegen, und an das Recht des Konsumenten, seinen Wetteinsatz selbst zu wählen oder zu bestimmen; außerdem soll kein Teilnehmer der Veranstalter, auf die sich die Wette bezieht, ausgeschlossen werden können. Schließlich müssen die Wett-Bedingungen in einer für jedermann verständlichen Weise offengelegt werden.

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Jack Dowie is Senior Lecturer in Social Sciences at The Open University, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, U.K. Mark Coton is a freelance writer on betting. His address is 4 Roymount Court, Lovelace Road, Surbiton, KT6 6NW, U.K. David Miers is Senior Lecturer in Law at Cardiff Law School, P.O. Box 427 Museum Avenue, Cardiff CF1 1XD, U.K.     

Understanding organising activity among US national unions

It is well known that US aggregate union election activity under the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) has fallen for several years. It is also well known that NLRB win rates have increased moderately during the Sweeney era relative to the later part of the Kirkland years. This article sheds new light on organising activity and win rates, by examining these data on a national union basis. The results show that several unions, including most of the largest nationals, experienced both increases in organising activity and increased win rates for the period of 1999 to 2004 compared with the years 1990–95 (the end of the Kirkland era). While explanations of variations in inter‐union organising success remain elusive, understanding and building on the experience of these ‘resurging unions’ holds the promise of union renewal more generally.     

Effects of Diversity on Performance: The Effects of Task Type

Diversity has long been assumed to have positive effects on organizational and group performance. Empirical evidence to date fails to support this assumption. The present paper provides a preliminary examination of the effects of diversity on a group task. The data are part of an ongoing study, where individual demographic information and task performance of groups have been collected. Diversity indices for racial and gender diversity are examined to determine the effects they might have on task performance. The instructions of the task, however, vary. In one situation, 2 groups are instructed to compete with one another. In the other situation, 2 groups are instructed to cooperate with one another. T-test ANOVA, and ANCOVA results consistently indicate that task-type influences changes in group-based outcomes. The implications of these preliminary results and future directions of research are discussed.     

Is Improving Access to University Enough? Socio‐Economic Gaps in the Earnings of English Graduates

Much research and policy attention has been on socio‐economic gaps in participation at university, but less attention has been paid to socio‐economic gaps in graduates’ earnings. This paper addresses this shortfall using tax and student loan administrative data to investigate the variation in earnings of English graduates by socio‐economic background. We find that graduates from higher income families (with median income of around 77,000) have average earnings which are 20% higher than those from lower income families (with median income of around £26,000). Once we condition on institution and subject choices, this premium roughly halves, to around 10%. The premium grows with age and is larger for men, in particular for men at the most selective universities. We estimate the extent to which different institutions and subjects appear to deliver good earnings for relatively less well off students, highlighting the strong performance of medicine, economics, law, business, engineering, technology and computer science, as well as the prominent London‐based universities.