The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty

Most researchers examining poverty and multilateral trade liberalizationhave had to examine average, or per capita effects, suggestingthat if per capita real income rises, poverty will fall. Thisinference can be misleading. Combining results from a new internationalcross-section consumption analysis with earnings data from householdsurveys, this article analyzes the implications of multilateraltrade liberalization for poverty in Indonesia. It finds thatthe aggregate reduction in Indonesia's national poverty headcountfollowing global trade liberalization masks a more complex setof impacts across groups. In the short run the poverty headcountrises slightly for self-employed agricultural households, asagricultural profits fail to keep up with increases in consumerprices. In the long run the poverty headcount falls for allearnings strata, as increased demand for unskilled workers liftsincomes for the formerly self-employed, some of whom move intothe wage labor market. A decomposition of the poverty changesin Indonesia associated with different countries' trade policiesfinds that reform in other countries leads to a reduction inpoverty in Indonesia but that liberalization of Indonesia'strade policies leads to an increase. The method used here canbe readily extended to any of the other 13 countries in thesample.     

The Dynamics of Self-Esteem and Physical Self: Between Preservation and Adaptation

The aim of this study was to model and characterize the psychologicalprocesses that underlie the dynamics of global self-esteem and physicalself over time. Twice a day for 228 consecutive days, seven participantscompleted a short inventory (PSI-6, Ninot et al., 2001) measuring sixsubjective dimensions: global self-esteem, physical self-worth, physicalcondition, sport competence, physical strength, and attractive body.Each series was modeled by means of ARIMA procedures. The resultsshowed that a simple moving average model provided a satisfactoryaccount for the dynamics of all series. This model suggests that acombination of two opposite processes underlies the dynamics ofself-concept: preservation, which tends to restore the previousvalue after a disturbance, and adaptation, which tends to inflectthe series in the direction of the perturbation.     

Nurse shortage or nursing shortage: have we missed the real problem?

Many strategies have been used to solve the nurse shortage. The shortage of nurses has in many ways alerted us to the need to provide safe and efficient care using the latest technology. Nursing needs to adopt, refine, and use this technology so the impact of the nursing shortage is just another statistic and not a disruptive and costly threat to the public.     

Transatlantic Differences in Consumer Preferences

Transatlantic Differences in Consumer Preferences The EU prohibits imports of hormone-treated beef and is about to impose labelling and traceability requirements on GMOs. Both policies have created growing unease on the part of exporting countries. The EU claims that public health concerns and consumers' preferences justify the trade restrictions, while exporters maintain that the rules serve primarily to protect domestic agriculture by limiting international competition. In a consumer study in France, Germany, the UK, and the US, we determine if consumers' preferences, as reflected in willingness-to-pay estimates, are different across the Atlantic. Our study covered two products: beef from cattle treated by hormones and from cattle fed genetically modified corn. Our results suggest that French consumers are willing to pay more than US consumers for beef from cattle not administered hormones. There are, however, no significant differences among German, UK and US consumers. In contrast, consumers in France, Germany and the UK are willing to pay more for beef from animals not fed GM corn than are US consumers. Given these results and current policy developments, it seems unlikely that the EU will retract its labelling requirements on GM food and feed, and future trade disputes are likely to emerge. Des consommateurs différents d'une rive de l'Atlantique à l'autre l'Union Européenne interdit l'importation de viande aux hormones, et s'apprête à imposer des normes d'étiquetage et de traçabilité pour les OGM. Dans chaque cas, les pays exportateurs ont été choqués par ces politiques. l'UE soutient que la santé publique et les préférences des consommateurs justifient de telles entorses au libéralisme, cependant que les pays exportateurs restent dans l' idée qu'il ne s'agit là que de moyens de protéger ragriculture rationale de la concurrence internationale. Nous avons essayé de vérifier si les préférences rationales, telles qu'elles sont définies par le consentement à payer, sont réellement différentes d'une rive à l'autre de l'Atlantique, à partir de l'étude d'un échantillon de consommateurs recrutés en France, Grande Bretagne, Allemagne et Etats Unis. Notre étude concerne deux produits:le bœuf traité aux hormones, et le bœuf nourri au maïs génétiquement modifyé. Les résultats montrent que les Français sont mieux disposés que les Américains à payer plus cher du bceuf non traité aux hormones. En dehors de cela, il n'y a pas de grosses différences entre les consommateurs anglais, allemands, et américains pour ce produit. Par contre, pour ce qui concerne le bœuf nourri au maïs OGM, il apparaît que les Britanniques, les Français et les Allemands sont bien plus disposés que les Américains à payer un surprixpour l'éviter. Dans ces conditions, et au vu des derniers développements politiques, on ne voit pas comment éviter que l'UE ne maintienne ses exigences en matière d'OGM pour l'alimentation humaine ou celledu bétail, ce qui entraînera sans doute une nouvelle guerre commerciale. Transatlantische Unterschiede bei verbraucherpräferenzen Die EU verbietet den Import von ormonbehandeltem Rindfleisch und wird in Kürze Rückverfolgbarkeit und Kennzeichnungspflicht bei GVOs verlangen. Diese beiden Maßnahmen werden von den Exportländem mißbiliigt. Die EU beruft sich darauf, dass diese Handelsrestriktionen durch die Sorge um die öffentliche Gesundheit und durch die Verbraucherpräferenzen gerechtfertigt seien. Die Exporteure führen an, dass diese Verordnungen primär dem Schutze der einheimischen Landwirtschaft dienten, da sie den internationalen Wettbewerb einschränken. In einer Verbraucherstudie in Frankreich, Deutschland, Großbritannien und den USA wird anhand von Schätzungen der Zahiungsbereitschaft ermittelt, ob es bei den Verbraucherpräferenzen tatsächlich transatlantische Unterschiede gibt. Die Studie umfasste zwei Erzeugnisse: Rindfleisch von hormonbehandelten Tieren und von Tieren, die mit genetisch verändertem Mais gefüttert worden waren. Die Resultate legen es nahe, dass französische Verbraucher mehr als US amerikanische Verbraucher bereit sind, einen höheren Preis für Rindfleisch von Tieren zu zahlen, welchen keine Hormone verabreicht wurden. Es sind jedoch keine signiflkanten Unterschiede zwischen deutschen, britischen und US-amerikanischen Verbrauchern vorhanden. Andererseits sind Franzosen, Deutsche und Briten mehr als US-amerikanische Verbraucher bereit, einen höheren Preis für Rindfleisch von Tieren zu zahlen, welche nicht mit genetisch verändertem Mais gefüttert wurden. In Anbetracht dieser Ergebnisse und der aktuellen politischen Entwicklungen erscheint es unwahrscheinlich, dass die EU die Verordnung zur Kennzeichnung von genetisch veränderten Lebensmitteln und Futtermitteln zurücknehmen wird. Zukünftige Handelskontroversen sind zu erwarten.     

Trust and economic growth: a robustness analysis

This paper analyses the robustness of results on the relationshipbetween growth and trust previously derived by Knack and Keefer(1997) and Zak and Knack (2001) along several dimensions, acknowledgingthe complexity of the concept of robustness. Our results showthat the Knack and Keefer results are only limitedly robust,whereas the results found by Zak and Knack are highly robustin terms of significance of the estimated coefficients and reasonablyrobust in terms of the estimated effect size. The improvementin robustness is caused by the inclusion of countries with relativelylow scores on trust (most notably, the Philippines and Peru).Overall, our results point at a relatively important role fortrust. However, the answer to the question how large this payoffactually is depends on the set of conditioning variables controlledfor in the regression analysis and—to an even larger extent—onthe underlying sample.     

Ulteriori contributi a un problema di Leo Moser

Si dimostrano condizioni necessarie e sufficienti relative a punti di Kuhn-Tucker per il «problema dei dadi truccati» e viene proposto un algoritmo per la ricerca di tali punti, tramite una successione di programmi lineari.

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The author's version of the «loaded dice problem» asks for x₁ to be maximum subject tox0 andx ^T H _i x1, whereH _i is the Hankel matrix of the (2n–1)-dimensional unity vectore ⁱ (i=1,..., 2n–1).Proofs are given here about necessary and sufficient conditions for Kuhn-Tucker points, together with an algorithm for finding them by means of a sequence of linear programs.