Estimating time-varying parameters in brand choice models: A semiparametric approach

Nowadays, brand choice models are standard tools in quantitative marketing. In most applications, parameters representing brand intercepts and covariate effects are assumed to be constant over time. However, marketing theories, as well as the experience of marketing practitioners, suggest the existence of trends or short-term variations in particular parameters. Hence, having constant parameters over time is a highly restrictive assumption, which is not necessarily justified in a marketing context and may lead to biased inferences and misleading managerial insights.In this paper, we develop flexible, heterogeneous multinomial logit models based on penalized splines to estimate time-varying parameters. The estimation procedure is fully data-driven, determining the flexible function estimates and the corresponding degree of smoothness in a unified approach. The model flexibly accounts for parameter dynamics without any prior knowledge needed by the analyst or decision maker. Thus, we position our approach as an exploratory tool that can uncover interesting and managerially relevant parameter paths from the data without imposing assumptions on their shape and smoothness.Our approach further allows for heterogeneity in all parameters by additively decomposing parameter variation into time variation (at the population level) and cross-sectional heterogeneity (at the individual household level). It comprises models without time-varying parameters or heterogeneity, as well as random walk parameter evolutions used in recent state space models, as special cases. The results of our extensive model comparison suggest that models considering parameter dynamics and household heterogeneity outperform less complex models regarding fit and predictive validity. Although models with random walk dynamics for brand intercepts and covariate effects perform well, the proposed semiparametric approach still provides a higher predictive validity for two of the three data sets analyzed.For joint estimation of all regression coefficients and hyperparameters, we employ the publicly available software BayesX, making the proposed approach directly applicable.     

An Analysis of External Finance Availability on SMEs’ Decision Making: A Case Study of the Emerging Market of Poland

This article explores an understanding of the entrepreneurial behavior of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Poland, one of the emerging markets of the European Union, during the recent period of economic slowdown. It considers the role of accessibility to external financial resources in shaping decisions undertaken by such enterprises. The hypothesis is that, in a period of economic slowdown, SMEs that have difficulty in accessing external sources of financing adopt different strategies than those that have free access to those resources. The findings indicate that access to the external sources of financing is a statistically significant factor determining decisions of SMEs in relation to employment reduction, price reductions on goods/services, suspension of previously planned investments, and an increase in the level of salaries. Consequently, the study is important as it considers factors that impact the success and survival of SMEs in the emerging market; it is also unique, as it investigates these aspects in the recent period of the global economic downturn. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Visualization of time-dependent dynamics of postglacial rebound

Postglacial rebound is a major geological process which plays an important role in many areas in the earth sciences. Up to now, most of the images derived from studies of the glacial isostatic adjustment phenomenon have been concerned with surface signatures, such as the uplift and gravity anomalies and not much attention has been paid on the dynamical responses in the mantle. We will make use of the 3D visualization package Amira to depict both the external and internal deformation histories of the transient viscoelastic flow inside the mantle induced by postglacial uplift. Of particularly great interest are the transient displacement fields and shear heating inside the mantle. This same visualization technology can be brought to bear in the future for visualizing tsunami waves in ocean basins excited by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and InSAR images. We have also integrated the visualization results into the Google Earth virtual globe by combining this scheme with the Amira package to provide a better geographical and dynamical context.     

Selling information to competitive firms

Internal agency conflicts distort firms' choices and reduce social welfare. To limit these distortions, principals dealing with privately informed agents often acquire information from specialized intermediaries, such as auditing and certification companies, that are able to ascertain, and credibly disclose, agents' private information. We study how the structures of both the information provision and the final good markets affect information accuracy. A monopolistic information provider may supply imprecise information to perfectly competitive firms, even if the precision of this information can be increased at no cost. This is due to a price effect of information: although more accurate information reduces agency costs and allows firms to increase production, it also results in a lower price in the final good market, which reduces principals' willingness to pay for information.     

Long-term unemployment,heterogeneity, and state dependence

Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird zur Erklärung individueller Wiederbeschäftigungschancen von Arbeitslosen mittels Individualdaten für österreich ein Abgangsratenmodell geschätzt, wobei unter Berücksichtigung von unbeobachteter Populationsheterogenität auf verschiedene Formen von state dependence getestet wird. Die Abgangsrate in Beschäftigung steigt mit zunehmender Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer an und hängt primär von bestimmten persönlichen Charakteristika der Arbeitslosen und der Zahl der erhaltenen Arbeitsangebote ab. Die individuellen (Wieder-)Beschäftigungschancen von Personen, die neu oder wieder in das Erwerbsleben eintreten, sind relativ gering und werden außerdem durch vergangene langfristige Arbeitslosigkeit stark reduziert.

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I thank my collegues G. Flaig and G. Licht, G. Arminger, University of Wuppertal, A. Hamerle, University of Konstanz, R. Winter-Ebmer, University of Linz, and the referees for helpful comments. Support from the Austrian Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung is gratefully acknowleged. Of course, the usual caveats apply.     

Matching Economic Development Policy to the Local Context: Must We?

This paper examines 2013 data on high-tech manufacturing employment across metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. The purpose is to discover how a broad set of social/demographic/economic variables relate to varying densities of high-tech manufacturing employment. Two questions are asked: Do social and industrial circumstances evolve together, as suggested by institutionalist theories? Is there any evidence to suggest that economic development policy is likely to be effective at creating the conditions that might invite local development of high-tech manufacturing?     

WILL THE “TRUE” LABOR SHARE STAND UP? AN APPLIED SURVEY ON LABOR SHARE MEASURES

Labor's share of income is a key variable in economics. It plays a leading role in analysis of (in)equality, globalization, technical change, growth theories, etc. Notwithstanding this broad application, there are many different definitions of the labor share. Understanding and synthesizing those differences is the purpose of this applied survey. Empirical measures may vary reflecting the allocation of income components that cannot be directly ascribed to capital or labor. We examine the alternative assumptions made in the literature in this regard and quantify and motivate the resulting discrepancies. Focusing (mostly) on US data, we show that different measures can have very distinct properties in terms of the observed stochastic trends, shares of short‐, medium‐, and long‐run variation and volatilities, persistence and mean‐reversion properties, and susceptibility to structural breaks. For instance, while “short‐run” properties of the surveyed labor share measures are relatively consistent across all definitions (and countercyclical), their “medium‐” and “long‐run” trends may diverge substantially (and are procyclical). To substantiate our analysis, we document the implications of discrepancies in the empirical labor share definition for growth accounting, analyzing the effect of technology shocks, and for estimating inflation dynamics.     

Team Over-Empowerment in Market Research: A Virtue-Based Ethics Approach

Journal of Business Ethics - Few scholars have investigated the considerations of over-empowered teams (i.e., teams creating negative organizational outcomes from too much empowerment) from a...