Long-term unemployment,heterogeneity, and state dependence

Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird zur Erklärung individueller Wiederbeschäftigungschancen von Arbeitslosen mittels Individualdaten für österreich ein Abgangsratenmodell geschätzt, wobei unter Berücksichtigung von unbeobachteter Populationsheterogenität auf verschiedene Formen von state dependence getestet wird. Die Abgangsrate in Beschäftigung steigt mit zunehmender Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer an und hängt primär von bestimmten persönlichen Charakteristika der Arbeitslosen und der Zahl der erhaltenen Arbeitsangebote ab. Die individuellen (Wieder-)Beschäftigungschancen von Personen, die neu oder wieder in das Erwerbsleben eintreten, sind relativ gering und werden außerdem durch vergangene langfristige Arbeitslosigkeit stark reduziert.

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I thank my collegues G. Flaig and G. Licht, G. Arminger, University of Wuppertal, A. Hamerle, University of Konstanz, R. Winter-Ebmer, University of Linz, and the referees for helpful comments. Support from the Austrian Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung is gratefully acknowleged. Of course, the usual caveats apply.     

Selling information to competitive firms

Internal agency conflicts distort firms' choices and reduce social welfare. To limit these distortions, principals dealing with privately informed agents often acquire information from specialized intermediaries, such as auditing and certification companies, that are able to ascertain, and credibly disclose, agents' private information. We study how the structures of both the information provision and the final good markets affect information accuracy. A monopolistic information provider may supply imprecise information to perfectly competitive firms, even if the precision of this information can be increased at no cost. This is due to a price effect of information: although more accurate information reduces agency costs and allows firms to increase production, it also results in a lower price in the final good market, which reduces principals' willingness to pay for information.     

French Wines on the Decline? Econometric Evidence from Britain

French wines, differentiated by geographic origin, served for many decades as a basis for the French success in the British wine market. However in the early 1990s, market share began to decline. This article explores the values that market participants placed on labelling information on French wines in Britain in 1994. Results from a parametric hedonic approach indicate that both the lack of a consistently positive valuation of varietal wines and the low valuation of wines with geographical appellation help to explain the overall decline of France's role in the British wine market.     

The implication of extreme events on policy responses

This paper considers a situation where a real risk exists that requires precautions, but the public mostly experiences the risk through infrequently occurring extreme events; this type of risk includes risk from climate change, international terrorism, natural calamities or financial crises. The analysis shows that if a risk-mitigating policy is based on the perceived riskiness of that risk, it will call for disproportionate responses (compared to what the ‘real’ risk suggests) by either under- or over-investing in risk-reducing policies, depending on the characteristics of the problem, implying significant volatility in the policy response. This type of response provides at least three challenges to society: policy cycles where implementation lags behind the actual change in risk, a lock-in to inefficient technologies and additional costs. Finally, this paper addresses the question of how the above-mentioned challenges can be managed through proper risk communication.     

Manipulation in U.S. REIT Investment Performance Evaluation: Empirical Evidence

We investigate whether Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) managers actively manipulate performance measures in spite of the strict regulation under the REIT regime. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with this hypothesis. Specifically, manipulation strategies may rely on the opportunistic use of leverage. However, manipulation does not appear to be uniform across REIT sectors and seems to become more common as the level of competition in the underlying property sector increases. We employ a set of commonly used traditional performance measures and a recently developed manipulation-proof measure (MPPM, Goetzmann et al., Rev Finan Stud 20(5):1503–1546, 2007) to evaluate the performance of 147 REITs from seven different property sectors over the period 1991–2009. Our findings suggest that the existing REIT regulation may fail to mitigate a substantial agency conflict and that investors can benefit from evaluating return information carefully in order to avoid potentially manipulative funds.     

An Analysis of External Finance Availability on SMEs’ Decision Making: A Case Study of the Emerging Market of Poland

This article explores an understanding of the entrepreneurial behavior of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Poland, one of the emerging markets of the European Union, during the recent period of economic slowdown. It considers the role of accessibility to external financial resources in shaping decisions undertaken by such enterprises. The hypothesis is that, in a period of economic slowdown, SMEs that have difficulty in accessing external sources of financing adopt different strategies than those that have free access to those resources. The findings indicate that access to the external sources of financing is a statistically significant factor determining decisions of SMEs in relation to employment reduction, price reductions on goods/services, suspension of previously planned investments, and an increase in the level of salaries. Consequently, the study is important as it considers factors that impact the success and survival of SMEs in the emerging market; it is also unique, as it investigates these aspects in the recent period of the global economic downturn. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

WILL THE “TRUE” LABOR SHARE STAND UP? AN APPLIED SURVEY ON LABOR SHARE MEASURES

Labor's share of income is a key variable in economics. It plays a leading role in analysis of (in)equality, globalization, technical change, growth theories, etc. Notwithstanding this broad application, there are many different definitions of the labor share. Understanding and synthesizing those differences is the purpose of this applied survey. Empirical measures may vary reflecting the allocation of income components that cannot be directly ascribed to capital or labor. We examine the alternative assumptions made in the literature in this regard and quantify and motivate the resulting discrepancies. Focusing (mostly) on US data, we show that different measures can have very distinct properties in terms of the observed stochastic trends, shares of short‐, medium‐, and long‐run variation and volatilities, persistence and mean‐reversion properties, and susceptibility to structural breaks. For instance, while “short‐run” properties of the surveyed labor share measures are relatively consistent across all definitions (and countercyclical), their “medium‐” and “long‐run” trends may diverge substantially (and are procyclical). To substantiate our analysis, we document the implications of discrepancies in the empirical labor share definition for growth accounting, analyzing the effect of technology shocks, and for estimating inflation dynamics.     

Tractable dynamic global games and applications

We present a family of tractable dynamic global games and its applications. Agents privately learn about a fixed fundamental, and repeatedly adjust their investments while facing frictions. The game exhibits many externalities: payoffs may depend on the volume of investment, on its volatility, and on its concentration. The solution is driven by an invariance result: aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to a large family of frictions. We use the invariance result to examine how frictions, including those similar to the Tobin tax, affect equilibrium. We identify conditions under which frictions discourage harmful behavior without compromising investment volume.