Government Purchases, Government Transfers, and the Post-1970 Slowdown In U.S. Economic Growth

This article shows that the post-1970 slowdown in U.S. economic growth can be explained by a shift in fiscal policy away from government purchases and toward transfer payments. Two endogenous growth models that include government purchases and transfers imply a relationship between these variables and long-run growth. Empirically, the simultaneous decline in the fraction of output purchased by federal, state, and local governments and rise in transfer payments around 1970 dramatically overpredict the growth slowdown of the early 1970s. The growth rate is predicted to have risen in the absence of this change in fiscal policy.     

The nonequivalence of tariffs,import quotas,and voluntary export restraints

This paper compares the equilibrium levels of prices, imports, production and consumption under a tariff, an import quota, and a voluntary export restraint when each trade restriction is set so as to lead to the same quantity of imports. Competitive, domestic production monopoly, import monopoly, and export monopoly cases are examined. Voluntary export restraints are shown to have different effects than import quotas or tariffs, especially when some potential exporters remain outside the agreements.     

Gender and ethnic differences in factors that influence food intake

Abstract The objective of this research was to ascertain the gender-and ethnic-related factors that influence what one eats. This survey was conducted using a validated, pilot-tested questionnaire in 11 states and the District of Columbia, which were participating in the W-182 Western Regional Research project. The results indicated that the factors that influence what one eats differ by gender and ethnicity. Men were very much influenced by likes and dislikes, and by their spouse or significant other. Women were influenced by likes and dislikes, and health. Food likes/dislikes and concerns about health and weight were among the leading four factors for all ethnic groups. Food likes/dislikes were the top factor influencing what is eaten by 51% or more of Asians, Pacific Islanders, Caucasians and Hispanics. Concern about health was the top factor for 62% and 58%, respectively, of African Americans and Native Americans.     

The George Washington University Forecast of Emerging Technologies: A Continuous Assessment of the Technology Revolution

A method is presented for the continuous assessment of major technological advances—the George Washington University (GWU) forecast of emerging technologies. Environmental scanning and trend analysis are used to identify emerging technologies (ETs), and a Delphi-type survey then asks a panel of authorities to estimate the year each advance will occur, its associated probability, the potential size of its market, and the nation that will lead each ET. Eighty-five prominent ETs have been identified and grouped into 12 fields: energy, environment, farming and food, computer hardware, computer software, communications, information services, manufacturing and robotics, materials, medicine, space, and transportation. Results are presented from four survey rounds covering the past 8 years, and they are compared longitudinally to estimate the range of variance. The data are also divided into three successive decades to provide scenarios portraying the unfolding waves of innovation that comprise the coming technology revolution.     

Humor and ad memorability: On the contributions of humor expectancy,relevancy, and need for humor

Humor is often used in advertising to make messages more entertaining and memorable. There are circumstances, however, under which humor can impede the acquisition of information from ads. This study explores these circumstances by examining how the interplay of humor expectancy, humor relevancy, and individuals' need for humor influences message claims recall. Results of experimentation show that recall is damaged when humor is expected—especially when expected humor is conceptually related to the message. Additionally, the deleterious impact of humor expectancy on recall is more pronounced among individuals characterized by low need for humor. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Judging the probability of a contingent loss: An empirical study*

Abstract. This paper reports the results of research in which experienced auditors interpreted the criteria of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 5 (SFAS 5): Accounting for Contingencies. The research focuses on two issues: (1) the nature and degree of consensus in the auditors' interpretations, and (2) the extent to which these interpretations depend upon the type of contingent loss. Forty-five experienced auditors (managers, principals, and partners) from “Big 8” CPA firms responded to a research instrument that elicited their interpretation of SFAS 5 probability criteria. Our analysis focuses upon the thresholds between the “remote” and “reasonably possible” criteria and between the “reasonably possible” and “probable” criteria. Our results indicate: (1) threshold means of 0.16 and 0.68, respectively; (2) more auditor consensus for the first threshold than for the second; (3) the first threshold was significantly lower than indicated by previous research; and (4) the thresholds were generally not dependent upon the type of contingent loss.     

An Antidumping Law Can Be procompetitive

Home and foreign duopolists collude in the absence of an antidumping (AD) law because competition law makes renegotiation of collusion more costly than imposition of punishment for defection. Introduction of an AD law with a weak injury standard can undermine collusion by providing a low-cost mechanism for renegotiation. This induces dumping by the foreign firm and defection by the home firm. An AD law can be procompetitive, in contrast to recent literature suggesting that an AD law can facilitate collusion. The law is asymmetric, providing a greater incentive for home-firm than foreign-firm deviation.