Lifecourse migration and redistribution of the elderly across U.S. regions and metropolitan areas

This analysis investigates the assertion that the baby-boom cohorts, by virtue of their large size and new lifecourse redistribution tendencies, are likely to initiate significant shifts in the distribution of the elderly population as these cohorts enter into the 65-and-older age categories. The author contends that cohorts' pre-elderly lifecourse migration patterns should be incorporated into studies of elderly population distribution shifts. 2 questions are addressed: will the new lifecourse migration patterns provide for a more deconcentrated redistribution of the baby-boom cohorts, both prior to and after their entry into the elderly age categories, than the lifecourse migration patterns followed by earlier cohorts; and will the new lifecourse distribution pattern lead, in the long run, to a significantly more deconcentrated distribution of the elderly population. The examination of these 2 questions focuses, largely, on redistribution across 9 broad regional and metropolitan area groupings defined on the basis of 3 census regions -- the North (combining the Northeast and Midwest census regions), the South, and the West -- and 3 categories of metropolitan status -- large metropolitan areas (those with 1980 populations exceeding 1 million), other metropolitan areas, and nonmetropolitan areas. The comparison of "new" versus "old" lifecourse migration patterns contrasts the census-based age-specific migration stream rates, registered over the 1975-80 period, with those registered over the 1965-70 period. Given the sharp and broad-based shift toward deconcentrated redistribution which characterized practically all segments of the population during the 1970s, it is assumed that the age-specific migration patterns observed over the 1975-80 period approximate the more deconcentrated redistribution tendencies which will be adopted by the baby-boom cohorts (and their successors) over the remainder of their lifecourse. The 1965-70 net migration rates point up the aggregate redistribution implications associated with the "old" lifecourse migration stream patterns. Among the rates for North large metropolitan areas, the only positive net migration is observed for the 25-29 age category; the greatest net outmigration rate is shown for the 65-69 age category. The rates for South nonmetropolitan areas are negative for all age categories under age 55, and most accentuated outmigration is shown during the young-adult years. The positive net migration exhibited for the older adult and post retirement ages reflects the low outmigration rates from nonmetropolitan areas during these ages and the slight peaking of immigration for these years. The results of this analysis imply that more attention should be devoted to migration, over the entirety of the lifecourse, in future studies of population redistribution.     

A CROSS-NATIONAL STUDY OF LEADERSHIP: PARTICIPATION AS A FUNCTION OF PROBLEM STRUCTURE AND LEADER POWER

This study explores the effects of task structure and leader power on participative leadership across Australian, African, Papua-New Guinea and Pacific Island managers. Managers in all national groups are more participative in situations of low structure and low power than for high structure and high power, respectively. Participation in situations of low structure and low power declines in the order: Australia, Africa, Papua-New Guinea, Pacific Islands. It is argued that this effect is an instrumental effect of managerial education, rather than being culturally determined. the Vroom-Yetton leadership methodology is used to measure participation levels. Subjects are a total of 150 middle-level managers attending management education courses.     

Status Implications of the Employment of Married Women in the United States

Abstract: The working wife as a factor in the determination of family status has been universally ignored by students of stratification. In this plea for investigation, it is suggested that the employment or married women could affect the system of stratification in the following ways: (1) making possible greater access to symbols of status; (2) implying that the husband has been unsuccessful in his own career; (3) identifying the wife with a particular occupation; and (4) identifying certain occupations with wives of high status.     

Developing a tutoring module for presentation of computerized patient management problems

The simulation problem is one of the most commonly used formats in computer-assisted instruction (CAI). In medical education, a patient simulation problem is known as a patient management problem (PMP). A number of computerized PMP systems are currently available. However, to date, there is no record of PMP systems having been developed using artificial intelligence. This is noteworthy since artificial intelligence techniques could help in the generation of more effective and intelligent instructional systems.

This paper analyzes and evaluates existing instructional simulation software in clinical medicine in terms of effective educational design attributes. Components of effective PMP systems thus identified are incorporated into a computerized instructional system which uses artificial intelligence techniques for teaching problem-solving and diagnostic skills to undergraduate medical students.     

The Self-concept of Black and White Women: The Influences Upon Its Formation of Welfare Dependency, Work Effort, Family Networks, and Illnesses

Abstract . The concept of “self-efficacy” is used to test the hypothesis that the negative self-concept of welfare recipients coniributes to long term psychological and material dependency on such assistance. Self-efficacy focuses on the extent to which people are able to produce and regulate events in their lives and is associated with self-imposed performance expectations. The extent to which the minority status which Blacks occupy in this society decreases self efficacy relative to Whites is examined, using information generated from structured interviews with 290 low income Black and White women. Operationalizing the concept of self-efficacy with appropriate controls for socioeconomic status, family composition and other factors results in finding no racial differences in sense of self-efficacy between Black and White women. Observed differences in patterns of receipt of public assistance are found to be more directly related to the persistence of structural barriers to upward mobility that have differential impacts on Blacks and Whites. Long term receipt of public assistance is found to adversely affect both self-worth and work orientation/perceived efficacy for all women.     

Polyhedral Combinatorics in Combinatorial Optimization

Polyhedral combinatorics is a subarea of combinatorial optimization of increasing practical importance. It deals with the application of the theory of linear systems and linear algebra to combinatorial problems. The paper is not intended as a survey on polyhedral combinatorics but it reviews some of the main concepts and proof techniques.     

Are robust estimation methods useful in the structural errors-in-variables model?

Summary In this paper it is investigated whether robust estimation procedures for the parameters of a regression model are also applicable when the observations are generated by the errors-in-variables model. Specifically, attention is paid to bounded-influence estimators, i.e. estimators that are constructed in such a way that the influence of a single observation on the outcome of the estimator is bounded. Both the classical errors-in-variables model and models with contaminated observational errors are considered.The authors are indebted to a referee for his valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper.     

ON THE FIRST–ORDER EFFICIENCY AND ASYMPTOTIC NORMALITY OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATORS OBTAINED FROM DEPENDENT OBSERVATIONS

Abstract. In this paper we study the first–order efficiency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from dependent observations. Our conditions are weaker than usual, in that we do not require convergences in probability to be uniform or third–order derivatives to exist.
The paper builds on Witting and Nolle's result concerning the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator obtained from independent and identically distributed observations, and on a martingale theorem by McLeish.     

Book Reviews

Richard Robison, Indonesia: The Rise of Capital, Allen and Unwin, Sydney, 1986 pp. xxv + 425. Indexed. $19.95.

W.L. Korthals Altes, Changing Economy in Indonesia: Volume 7: Balance of Payments, 1822–1939, Amsterdam: The Royal Tropical Institute. pp. 167.

Trade Statistics, Java, 1823–73: Trade Statistics, Indonesia 1874–1937. Mededeelingen van het Centraal Kantoor voor de Statistiek nos 160 and 161

Om Prakash, The Dutch East India Company and the Economy of Bengal, 1630–1720, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985 pp. xii + 291, map, tables. graphs, glossary, index. Cloth $38.50.

Sediono M.P. Tjondronegoro, Social Organization and Planned Development in Rural Java, Singapore, Oxford University Press for the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1984, pp. xv + 326.

A. Fujimoto and F. Matsuda (eds), An Economic Study of Rice Farming in West Java, Tokyo: NODAI Research Institute, Tokyo, University of Agriculture, 1986.

A. Fujimoto and T. Matsuda (eds), A Comparative Study of the Structure of Rice Productivity and Rural Society in Southeast Asta Two Village Studies in Indonesta and Thailand, Tokyo: University of Agriculture, 1985. Reviewed by C.L J. van der Meer (1986) Bulletin of Indanesian Economic Studies, 22(2) pp. 124–27

David Jenkins, Suharto and His Generals: Indonesian Military Politics, 1975–1983, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Monograph Series No. 64, 1984, pp. xiii + 280. US$12.50. David Bourchier, Dynamics of Dissent in Indonesia Sawito and the Phantom Coup, Ithaca: Cornell Modern Indonesia Project, Interim Reports Series, 1984, pp. 128. US$9.00.

Linda G. Martin (ed), The ASEAN Success Story: Social, Economic, and Political Dimensions, East-West Center, distributed by the University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu, 1987, pp. xviii + 253. $15.00.

Mubyarto and Edy Suandy Hamid (eds), Kredit Pedesaan di Indonesia, Badan Penerbit Fakultas Ekonomi, U.G.M., 1986 pp, 160.

Ron Hatley, et al., Other Javas Away from the Kraton, Melbourne: Monash University, 1984, pp. 60.

K.S. Nathan and M. Pathmanathan (eds), Trilateralism in Asia: Problems and Prospects in US-Japan-ASEAN Relations, Antara Book Company, Kuala Lumpur, 1986, pp. xviii + 205. $18.00 (cloth): $12.00 (paper).