Half the power,half the income and half the glory,the use of microeconomic theory in women's emancipation research

Summary Major fields of economic research to understand the development of women's integration into the economy and women's economic independence can be categorized into three main groups. First, theories that attempt to explain wage and earnings differences according to gender; second, theories that attempt to explain the division of work within the family, and third, theories that attempt to explain the determination of fertility and the combination of work and motherhood. This paper offers a review of these three areas of neo-classical theory as well as an evaluation as to what extent the theories are adequate to answer the questions of women's emancipation research.This article is a revised version of my inaugural speech held on May 30th, 1990, at the official assumption of the chair of Labour market issues with special attention to women's emancipation, at the University of Amsterdam. Comments on earlier drafts have been received by Marga Bruyn-Hundt, Joop Hartog, Jan Hoem, Henriëtte Maassen van den Brink, Notburga Ott, Hettie Pott-Buter, Jolande Sap, Kea Tijdens, the participants of the demographic colloquium at Stockholm University, and the editor ofDe Economist.     

On the theory of macroeconomic policy

Summary Jan Tinbergen originated the theory of policy in the 1950s. Here I apply it to contemporary macroeconomics. The two standard instruments of short-run demand management cannot achieve the two usual targets, full employment and price stability. With respect to those goals, these two instruments are collinear, except for small and transient effects on foreign exchange rates. But the mix of fiscal and monetary policies, relative to one another, does have important effects on the composition of national output, as between investment and consumption.I point out that policy-makers, like portfolio managers, should diversify the instruments they use when they are uncertain of their effects. I discuss some pitfalls in the empirical estimation of policy effects, especially possible misinterpretations of simple correlations, and I note that policy rules cannot be invariant to changes in macroeconomic structure. I argue that policy rules should involve responses to new information and in practice allow discretion. Finally, I suggest that Tinbergen's theory of policy needs to be extended to policy coordination among nations.Third Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 20, 1989, in Utrecht for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association.     

Fertility projection based on birth order data--a Swedish approach

"The decreasing fertility rates in Sweden during the 1970s can be explained as postponement of childbearing. An increasingly larger part of each generation has chosen to bear children at a late age, after education and some years of occupational work. As a consequence, the yearly age-specific rates will, in years to come, change systematically towards relatively high rates for women in the second half of the fertile period; changes which are important in population projections. To predict the future rates a model based on birth order data and assumptions about the final family size is used. The model and its application in the 1989 projection of the Swedish population is discussed in the paper. Alternative projections and the assumptions behind the alternatives are specified."     

Discriminating Among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise

Recent theoretical developments have incorporated endogenous multinational firms into the general–equilibrium model of trade. One simple taxonomy separates the theory into "vertical" models, in which firms geographically separate activities by stages of production, and "horizontal" models, in which multiplant firms duplicate roughly the same activities in many countries. The authors nest a horizontal and a vertical model within a hybrid (unrestricted) "knowledge–capital model" and estimate the specifications with data on US foreign direct investment activity. In the nested econometric tests, the data sample cannot distinguish statistically between the unrestricted model and the restricted horizontal model, indicating that the latter captures virtually all of the determinants of FDI. The tests overwhelmingly reject the vertical model.