An empirical test of trust-building processes and outcomes in sales manager-salesperson relationships

This study examines three trust-building processes and outcomes in sales manager-salesperson relationships. This study, based on a sample of more than 400 business-to-business salespeoples from a variety of industries, shows two trust-building processes (predictive and identification) to be significantly related to salesperson trust in the sales manager. Interpersonal trust was found to be most strongly related to shared values and respect. Trust was directly related to job satisfaction and relationalism, and indirectly related to organizational commitment and turnover intention. Thomas G. Brashear (brashear@mktg.umass.edu) (Ph.D., Georgia State University) is an assistant professor of marketing in the Isenberg School of Management at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst. James S. Boles (jboles@gsu.edu) (Ph.D., Louisiana State University) is an associate professor of marketing in the Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. His research has appeared in a variety of journals, including theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Business Research, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Retailing, theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, and theJournal of Applied Psychology. His areas of research interest include personal selling, sales management, key and strategic account management, and business relationships. Danny N. Bellenger (mktdnb@langate.gsu.edu) (Ph.D., University of Alabama) is currently chairman of the Marketing Department in the Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. His research has appeared in a number of academic journals including theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Advertising Research, theCalifornia Management Review, theJournal of Retailing, theJournal of Personal Selling and Sales Management, Industrial Marketing Management, and theJournal of Business Research. He has authored four monographs and four textbooks on marketing research, sales, and retailing. Charles M. Brooks (brooks@quinnipiac.edu) (Ph.D., Georgia State University) is an associate professor and chair of the Department of Marketing and Advertising at Quinnipiac University. His research has appeared in theJournal of Business Research, theJournal of Retailing, Marketing Theory, and theJournal of Marketing Theory and Practice.     

Killing off cohorts: Forecasting mortality of non-extinct cohorts with the penalized composite link model

Mortality forecasting has crucial implications for insurance and pension policies. A large amount of literature has proposed models to forecast mortality using cross-sectional (period) data instead of longitudinal (cohort) data. As a consequence, decisions are generally based on period life tables and summary measures such as period life expectancy, which reflect hypothetical mortality rather than the mortality actually experienced by a cohort. This study introduces a novel method to forecast cohort mortality and the cohort life expectancy of non-extinct cohorts. The intent is to complete the mortality profile of cohorts born up to 1960. The proposed method is based on the penalized composite link model for ungrouping data. The performance of the method is investigated using cohort mortality data retrieved from the Human Mortality Database for England & Wales, Sweden, and Switzerland for male and female populations.     

Book Reviews

R.J. May and W.J. O'Malley (eds), Observing Change in Asia. Essays in Honour of J.A.C. Mackie, Bathurst: Crawford House Press, 1989, pp. 265. Paper: A$20.00.

Michael R. Dove (ed.), The Real and Imagined Role of Culture in Development: Case Studies from Indonesia, Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press, 1988. US$ 32.00.

Fukuo Ueno, Desa Cimahi: Analysis of a Village on Java during the Japanese Occupation (1943), Rotterdam: Comparative Asian Studies Programme (GASP), Erasmus University, 1988, pp. 291 + xi.

Sritua Arief and Adi Sasono, Modal Asing, Beban Hutang Luar Negeri dan Ekonomi Indonesia, Jakarta: LSP dan UI Press, 1987, pp. 69 + xix.

BRIEFLY NOTED: World Bank, World Debt Tables 1989–90, 2 Vols, Washington Dc, 1989.

Mohan Munasinghe, Energy Analysis and Policy, London: Butterworths, 1990, pp. 315 + xx; Electric Power Economics, London: Butterworths, 1990, pp. 323 + xviii.     

On the theory of macroeconomic policy

Summary Jan Tinbergen originated the theory of policy in the 1950s. Here I apply it to contemporary macroeconomics. The two standard instruments of short-run demand management cannot achieve the two usual targets, full employment and price stability. With respect to those goals, these two instruments are collinear, except for small and transient effects on foreign exchange rates. But the mix of fiscal and monetary policies, relative to one another, does have important effects on the composition of national output, as between investment and consumption.I point out that policy-makers, like portfolio managers, should diversify the instruments they use when they are uncertain of their effects. I discuss some pitfalls in the empirical estimation of policy effects, especially possible misinterpretations of simple correlations, and I note that policy rules cannot be invariant to changes in macroeconomic structure. I argue that policy rules should involve responses to new information and in practice allow discretion. Finally, I suggest that Tinbergen's theory of policy needs to be extended to policy coordination among nations.Third Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 20, 1989, in Utrecht for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association.     

Discriminating Among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise

Recent theoretical developments have incorporated endogenous multinational firms into the general–equilibrium model of trade. One simple taxonomy separates the theory into "vertical" models, in which firms geographically separate activities by stages of production, and "horizontal" models, in which multiplant firms duplicate roughly the same activities in many countries. The authors nest a horizontal and a vertical model within a hybrid (unrestricted) "knowledge–capital model" and estimate the specifications with data on US foreign direct investment activity. In the nested econometric tests, the data sample cannot distinguish statistically between the unrestricted model and the restricted horizontal model, indicating that the latter captures virtually all of the determinants of FDI. The tests overwhelmingly reject the vertical model.     

Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies Toward Remote Sensing

Earlier experimental evidence indicates that some decision makers under-invest in information when it is costly. This insight is applied to the cost–benefit analysis of the provision of data obtained by satellites. In fields like agriculture, remotely sensed information of great precision can be provided to additional farmers at minimal extra costs if a service for farmers with similar information needs is set up. Here, the tendency to under-invest in information asks for creative solutions by the private sector: bankers may work together with rational producers in setting up the information service and promoting it. However, if producers financial resources are insufficient, public intervention, in the form of a free information service may be necessary.The author would like to thank an anonymous referee, Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel, Sean Flynn, Daniel Heller, and Carlos Lenz and participants of the Lisbon Conference of the International Atlantic Economic Society, particularly Asatoshi Maeshiro, for helpful comments.     

Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation. An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India

Germany has committed itself toreducing its carbon emissions by 25 percent in2005 as compared to 1990 emission levels. Toachieve this goal, the government has recentlylaunched an environmental tax reform whichentails a continuous increase in energy taxesin conjunction with a revenue-neutral cut innon-wage labor costs. This policy is supposedto yield a double dividend, reducing both, theproblem of global warming and high unemploymentrates. In addition to domestic actions,international treaties on climate protectionallow for the supplementary use of flexibleinstruments to exploit cheaper emissionreduction possibilities elsewhere. One concreteoption for Germany would be to enter jointimplementation (JI) with developing countriessuch as India where Germany pays emissionreduction abroad rather than meeting itsreduction target solely by domestic action. Inthis paper, we investigate whether anenvironmental tax reform cum JI providesemployment and overall efficiency gains ascompared to an environmental tax reformstand-alone. We address this question in theframework of a large-scale general equilibriummodel for Germany and India where Germany mayundertake JI with the Indian electricitysector. Our main finding is that JI offsetslargely the adverse effects of carbon emissionconstraints on the German economy. JIsignificantly lowers the level of carbon taxesand thus reduces the total costs of abatementas well as negative effects on labor demand. Inaddition, JI triggers direct investment demandfor energy efficient power plants produced inGermany. This provides positive employmenteffects and additional income for Germany. ForIndia, joint implementation equips itselectricity industry with scarce capital goodsleading to a more efficient power productionwith lower electricity prices for the economyand substantial welfare gains.     

Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

We are interested in three related questions:(1) How should accounting prices be estimated?(2) How should we evaluate policy change in animperfect economy? (3) How can we check whetherintergenerational well-being will be sustainedalong a projected economic programme? We do notpresume that the economy is convex, nor do weassume that the government optimizes on behalfof its citizens. We show that the same set ofaccounting prices should be used both forpolicy evaluation and for assessing whether ornot intergenerational welfare along a giveneconomic path will be sustained. We also showthat a comprehensive measure of wealth,computed in terms of the accounting prices, canbe used as an index for problems (2) and (3)above. The remainder of the paper is concernedwith rules for estimating the accounting pricesof several specific environmental naturalresources, transacted in a few well knowneconomic institutions.     

Costly pollution abatement, competitiveness and plant location decisions

The NAFTA debate included assertions that were used as arguments against trade and investment liberalization. (1) Trade liberalization increases production sensitivity to environmental restrictions (‘environmental dumping’?). (2) Investment liberalization, leading to multinational firms, similarly increases the production and welfare response to costly environmental restrictions. I find that: (1) Trade liberalization increases production sensitivity to costly environmental restrictions, but arguments against liberal trade on welfare grounds do not follow. (2) Multinationals do not increase the production-reallocation effect caused by environmental restrictions or regulations. In addition, I find a great difference between restrictions that fall on fixed costs and restrictions that fall on marginal costs.