VAR,ERROR CORRECTION AND PRETEST FORECASTS AT LONG HORIZONS

This paper focuses on the construction of forecasts over long horizons where a typical long-horizon forecast might span four years using 20 to 40 years’ data. It is argued that the presence of persistence in the form of unit or near-unit autoregressive roots poses substantial difficulties for long-horizon interval and point forecasting. These difficulties may not be overcome even by efficient pre-testing or model-selection procedures and might, in general, lead to point forecasts with large asymptotic root mean squared errors and undesirably wide prediction intervals.     

Advertising,Price and Quality in Self–regulating Professions: A Survey

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between advertising, fees and quality in the self–regulating professions. Much of the literature is derived from the perspective of advertising as an information–enhancing device, helping to reduce the information asymmetry between professional and client. This is consistent with the majority of the empirical studies which suggest that advertising tends to have a downward effect on professional fees, with little if any adverse effect on quality. There are, however, important issues of method and measurement which may lessen the force of this conclusion     

Employee involvement in American corporations

At the direction of the U.S. Senate subcommittee on Governmental Affairs, the general Accounting Office (GAO) conducted a survey of employee involvement practices within American companies. The population consisted of top management within Fortune's 500 largest manufacturing and 500 largest service companies. An analysis of the data examined three broad areas relating to employee involvement: (1) the existing organizational programs and processes such as personnel practices, information sharing, and training; (2) the degree of corporate participation in specific employee involvement programs including the reasons for undertaking employee involvement programs, and the perceived barriers to the implementation of employee involvement programs; and (3) the perceived effect of employee involvement on organizational operation as measured by changes in indicators of performance and activities within the internal business environment.     

Habilitation von Ralf Hohlfeld

Ohne Zusammenfassung