A Nobel Prize for the Empirical Analysis of Asset Prices

Abstract

The 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics was awarded to Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller, and Lars Peter Hansen for their empirical analysis of asset prices. The paper reviews critically the work of the three economists and highlights the differing conclusions that the three researchers reached on the relatively narrow question of the rationality of individual investors. The paper argues that there is a time inconsistency in the idea that markets reveal information about the future and concludes that, despite the sophistication of their statistical analysis, the laureates have been unable to demonstrate how a sophisticated financial economy can produce their empirical results.     

Corporate credit,stock price inflation and economic fluctuations

This study analyses the empirical interaction between real corporate credit, real income, real stock prices, the short-term interest rate and inflation for the Netherlands and the USA. The framework is based on a five-variable structural vector error correction model which identifies the permanent and temporary shocks within the system. Erratic shocks in the real amount of corporate credit and in stock prices could potentially have some impact on inflation in the case of the USA and on real output in the Netherlands. However, the structural VAR analysis also shows that the above-mentioned erratic shocks only explain a small proportion of the variation in inflation and economic activity, and inflation objective shifts and supply side shocks are much more important determinants for economic fluctuations.     

A model of attrition and income for dynamic longitudinal surveys

This paper develops a random effects model of attrition and income applicable to a dynamic longitudinal survey such as the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Based on the partial dynamic adjustment hypothsis, this study finds that the speed of adjustment of income is not instantaneous as suggeted in many past studies using annual panel data. Also, the short-run coefficients are much smaller than their long-run counterparts, and the coefficient estimates differ substantially among individuals with divergent socioeconomic characteristics. Caution should therefore be exercised when applying dynamic panel data to models with the assumption of an instantaneous speed of adjustment.     

Measuring inflation expectations: a survey data approach

Measures of expected inflation from consumer surveys are derived using a modification of the Carlson-Parkin probability approach, which does not assume unbiasedness of expectations, makes use of survey data on expected future as well as perceived past price developments and allows for time varying response thresholds. We apply this method to the normal, central-t and noncentral-t distributions, thereby investigating the effects of nonnormal peakedness and asymmetry. We find that the effects on expected inflation of the former are small and of the latter are substantial, without increasing the accuracy of the expectations, however. Expected and actual inflation show substantial persistence, and, for most of our expectations measures, are cointegrated. Furthermore, the forecast error is stationary, implying weak-form rationality. The co-movement of currently observed expected inflation measures and the unobserved 12-months-ahead inflation rate is of interest for policy makers, for example in the direct inflation targeting strategy. Notwithstanding this, caution is warranted in using them as information variables because the inflation expected by consumers is no causal determinant of actual future inflation.     

Mortgage lending,monetary policy,and prudential measures in small euro‐area economies: Evidence from Ireland and the Netherlands

This paper examines whether the increased use of macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis has affected the impact of (euro‐area and foreign) monetary policy on mortgage lending in Ireland and the Netherlands, which are both small open economies in the euro area. Using quarterly bank‐level data on domestic lending in both countries for 2003–2018, we find that restrictive euro‐area monetary policy shocks reduce the growth of mortgage lending. We find evidence that stricter domestic prudential regulation mitigates this effect in Ireland, but not so in the Netherlands. There is some weak evidence for an international bank lending channel that can be mitigated by stricter lender‐based domestic prudential regulation.     

Markets as networks: implications for strategy-making

Based on empirical studies of firm exchange activities in business markets, this paper outlines a business network view of the firm-market relationship, which differs fundamentally from the view assumed by neo-classical economic theory. We define business networks as sets of connected business relationships. Thus business relationships and connections between relationships are the critical elements in the business network view. It is assumed, as suggested by the Uppsala internationalization process model, that an interplay between knowledge and commitment development is the mechanism that drives the relationship and network development process. Against this background the paper discusses how strategic change is analyzed in literature on alliances and networks. In conclusion the paper presents a set of propositions about strategy-making in business network settings.