A Markov analysis of social learning and adaptation

A number of recent contributions to the literature have modelled social learning and adaptation in an economic context. Understanding the processes driving these models is important in order to explain and predict the behaviour of the economy. In this paper, we analyze the economic applications for a class of adaptive learning models with bounded rational agents. The dynamics of these economies can be thought of as arising from discrete-time Markov chains. In particular, conditions for uniqueness of equilibria, convergence and stability in the economic systems follow from the accessibility and communication structures of these Markov chains. We establish a correspondence between absorbing states of the Markov chains and economic equilibria, whether stable or unstable, and develop theorems giving conditions for absorption and recurrence. Furthermore, we develop practical applications of these theorems using a cobweb model. We use a genetic algorithm, operating under election, as an example of a well known adaptive learning process.     

Establishing standards for intranet on-line education

Following a clear set of on-line programming standards assists educators with consistency the training expectations from participants. Placing staff educational materials and health information online is an effective way to disseminate information and an efficient method of providing ongoing staff education. The presentation of on-line programming should be organized, comprehensive, and up-to-date. In addition, on-line programming should also be appealing, dynamic, and, above all practical. Today's clinical staff are pushed to the limits of time and resources. On-line training is one way to help staff meet their learning needs in today's reality. The inception of the UWMF on-line educational programs began in January 2002. Since that date employee participation has increased steadily. The time for Intranet on-line program development is part of the staff education department. For example, one area of programming is the mandatory educational credits needed for the organizations 100 certified medical assistants (CMAs). Figure 1 shows the nearly 3.5 years (January 2002 through May 2005) of participation. The 912 sessions made available 1,870 CEs for the CMAs. If the organization's CMAs were to pay for the continuing education credits (CEs) outside of the clinic setting, it could cost on average of dollar 10.00 per CE, or dollar 18,700 during the same 3-year period. Another aspect of economics is the cost in time away from work. On-line education allows employees to participate when time is available, versus having to leave work when traditional educational inservices are being held. This flexibility in participation can lead to better staff coverage.     

Does poverty constrain deforestation? Econometric evidence from Peru

This paper examines the relationship between income and land clearing for households living in tropical forest regions. A simple model of the agricultural household that clears land for agriculture is developed to investigate the relationship between lagged income and cleared land holdings. Analysis of panel data from Peru suggests that lagged income is positively correlated with clearing, though at a decreasing rate, and, because of labor market constraints, clearing is positively correlated with household labor availability. This work suggests that small increases in the incomes of the poorest are unlikely to reduce deforestation in this context.     

Trading Hot-Air. The Influence of Permit Allocation Rules,Market Power and the US Withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol

After the conferences in Bonn and Marrakech, it is likely that international emissions trading will be realized in the near future. Major influences on the permit market␣are the institutional detail, the participation structure and the treatment of hot-air. Different scenarios not only differ in their implications for the demand and supply of permits and thus the permit price, but also in their allocative effects. In this paper we discuss likely the institutional designs for permit allocation in the hot-air economies and the use of market power and quantify the resulting effects by using the computable general equilibrium model DART. It turns out that the amount of hot-air supplied will be small if hot-air economies cooperate in their decisions. Under welfare maximization, more hot-airis supplied than in the case where governments try to maximize revenues from permit sales.     

Female audit committee members and their influence on audit fees

We test the relationship between female representation on the audit committee and audit fees for 624 Australian companies in the year 2011. A positive relationship is found, leading to the conclusion that female presence on audit committees influences the quality of the external audit. Further, we find that gender is the significant audit committee characteristic in predicting audit quality and that women on the audit committee strengthen the positive relationship between firm size and audit fees, and between risk and audit fees. Conversely, we find that female representation dampens the positive relationship between complexity and audit fees.     

Exploring Cruise Experiences,Satisfaction, and Loyalty: The Case of Aruba as a Small-Island Tourism Economy

In light of increasing global competition amongst international cruise destinations; growing demand for cruise tourism; and the lack of empirical studies on the “real” destination experience, satisfaction, and intentions to return and recommend (i.e., cruise destination loyalty), the current study investigates cruise visitor satisfaction, cruise destination experience, and the resulting behavioral intention as it relates to the cruise destination of Aruba, Dutch Caribbean. Because of increased reliance of small island economies on cruise tourism receipts and visitor expenditures, cruise ports throughout the Caribbean are seeking ways to improve the quality of destination services and experiences. Results indicate that cruise visitors are satisfied with their visit to Aruba and that overall destination experience in addition to satisfaction, were found to be significant predictors of cruise visitor loyalty.     

La OIT y el derecho de huelga

En junio de 2012, el Grupo de los Empleadores de la Conferencia Internacional del Trabajo cuestionó el principio, hasta entonces aceptado por todos, de que el derecho de huelga esté protegido en virtud del Convenio sobre la libertad sindical y la protección del derecho de sindicación, 1948 (núm. 87). La autora analiza los textos fundamentales de la OIT, los debates sobre el Convenio y sobre el establecimiento del sistema de control de la Organización y su contexto histórico, demostrando que desde la Conferencia de Paz de París los mandantes de la OIT reconocen un derecho positivo de huelga, indisoluble de la libertad sindical, de la cual es corolario.     

The information content in implied idiosyncratic volatility and the cross‐section of stock returns: Evidence from the option markets

Current literature is inconclusive as to whether idiosyncratic risk influences future stock returns and the direction of the impact. Earlier studies are based on historical realized volatility. Implied volatilities from option prices represent the market's assessment of future risk and are likely a superior measure to historical realized volatility. Implied idiosyncratic volatilities on firms with traded options are used to examine the relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and future returns. A strong positive link was found between implied idiosyncratic risk and future returns. After considering the impact of implied idiosyncratic volatility, historical realized idiosyncratic volatility is unimportant. This performance is strongly tied to small size and high book‐to‐market equity firms. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28: 1013–1039, 2008     

Using a Geographic Information System to Teach Economics

An honors program fits the current passion for active, in-depth learning and “capstone experiences.” Principles that guide a successful undergraduate economics honors program include simplicity, accessibility, skill development, risk minimization, and incentives to combat procrastination. The model program specifies three of the usual six electives and requires a senior thesis that makes an original contribution to economics understanding. It can be started as late as the middle of the junior year, providing accessibility and limiting student risk. A required econometrics course and a policy seminar prepare students to write a thesis. A series of short-term deadlines helps combat procrastination. Although an honors program is not for everyone, its emphasis on quality rather than quantity can add a valuable dimension to most economics degree programs.