A Model of Bargaining over Hazardous Waste Cleanup

We put forward a formal model of a bargaining problem in which two parties suspected of contaminating the environment are responsible for clean-up costs. If the parties do not negotiate an agreement on a cost allocation, one will be imposed by the government. This process is commonly used in environmental cleanups performed under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA or Superfund). Passed by the US Congress in 1980 and administered by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), CERCLA provides the U.S. government with authority to manage releases (or threatened releases) of hazardous substances that may endanger public health or the environment. We conclude that potentially responsible parties will be induced to settle only in the face of specific allocations of clean-up and explicit threats. For example, at the Middlefield–Ellis–Whisman Superfund site in Mountain View, California, the responsibilities of the different parties for soil and groundwater contamination are understood by all, yet our negotiation model predicts that without the threat that additional costs will be imposed, agreement on the allocation of clean up costs will never be reached.     

Advances in Drama Theory for Managing Global Hazards and Disasters. Part II: Coping with Global Climate Change and Environmental Catastrophe

We explore issues of group decision making for reducing global environmental risk, with particular reference to the political dynamics surrounding international agreements on tackling climate change. Continuing political delays in deciding to reduce greenhouse gas emissions may make it necessary to resort to high risk and controversial geo-engineering solutions, such as injecting large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, despite the unforeseen, potentially catastrophic consequences that these entail. Advances in drama theory (dt.2) are used to analyze the prospects for agreement on reducing or stabilizing greenhouse gas emissions, following the Bali agreement of December 2007. It is concluded that Western nations and emerging economies are behaving like players in a game of “chicken”, each expecting the other to take on the main burden of emissions reduction. We judge it unlikely that either will play a full part until it is too late for emissions reduction alone to avert environmental catastrophe. At that point, parties will resort to geo-engineering “fixes”, despite the risks. However, all such forecasts are conditional on decisions made and attitudes taken by political leaders and the public. Our analysis serves to pinpoint the relevant decisions and attitudes.     

Daily mutual fund flows and redemption policies

We examine how redemption policies affect daily fund flows in open-end mutual funds. Since short-term trading of fund shares, as manifested in daily fund flows, can have an adverse impact on returns to the fund’s shareholders, mutual funds might find it desirable to discourage short-term trading through the use of redemption fees. However, if daily fund flows are due to fund shareholders’ legitimate liquidity demands, the redemption fee would have little effect on daily fund flows and possibly adversely affect fund shareholders by imposing a liquidity cost on them. We find that the likelihood of a fund charging a redemption fee is largely a function of its overall fee structure. We also use a sample of funds that imposed redemption fees to examine whether the distribution of daily fund flows changes after the initiation of the redemption fee. We find that the redemption fee is an effective tool in controlling the volatility of fund flows.     

Historic Preservation: Preserving Value?

The creation of historic districts has become a common way to preserve historic buildings and neighborhoods. Advocates of historic districts assume that such districts augment, or at least, protect property values for homes within these districts. The existing economic literature supports this conclusion, but most studies seem to fall victim to an endogeneity bias since higher value homes are, all else equal, more likely to be included in districts. This study uses repeat-sales fixed effects (difference-in-differences) analysis to look at homes before and after the creation of districts in the Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MSA between 2000 and 2007, and thus control for this endogeneity bias. Secondarily, we re-examine the effects of a Massachusetts preservation policy, the Community Preservation Act (CPA) which, in part, supports historic preservation. We find evidence that the creation of a local historic district, on average, reduces home prices for homes in that district between 11.6 and 15.5%. This indicates that any restrictions implied by the creation of a district outweigh any benefits to homeowners within the district. If, instead, census block fixed effects are employed, the analysis shows a statistically insignificant impact, the sign and magnitude of which depends on the specification. Taken together with the repeat sales result, this confirms our intuition about the importance of controlling for omitted variables and endogeneity biases. Finally, we find evidence that the CPA also lowers property values, by less than 1%, and that being in a Historic District magnifies the negative effect of the CPA.     

Political patronage and analysts’ forecast precision

We test whether the channel by which the government plays the role of political patron to selected firms influences analysts’ forecast precision in Malaysia. Correcting for analysts’ self-selection bias, we find a negative relation between analysts’ forecast errors and the social dimension of political patronage, as proxied by government-controlled institutional ownership. The reverse is found for the economic dimension of political patronage, as proxied by the percentage shareholding of government-linked corporations. We find no evidence that the personal dimension of political patronage influences analysts’ forecast precision.     

Assessing mainland Chinese tourists' satisfaction with Hong Kong using tourist satisfaction index

The purpose of this study is to test a two‐step tourist satisfaction index framework empirically. The first step estimates sectoral‐level satisfaction indexes based on a structural equation model, and the second obtains an overall tourist satisfaction index by conducting second‐order confirmatory factor analysis. This study is a pilot test of the theoretical framework based on three tourism‐related service sectors in Hong Kong. The results indicate that mainland Chinese tourists are most satisfied with the hotel sector in Hong Kong, followed by the retail sector, and least satisfied with local tour operators. The aggregate tourist satisfaction index is 74.04 out of 100. The results of this study have important practical implications for long‐term destination management. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real-world utilization of molecular diagnostic testing and matched drug therapies in the treatment of metastatic cancers

Aims: To assess the frequency of biopsies and molecular diagnostic testing (human DNA/RNA analysis), anti-cancer drug use (genomically-matched targeted therapy [GMTT], unmatched targeted therapy [UTT], endocrine therapy [ET], and chemotherapy [CT]), and medical service costs among adults with metastatic cancer.

Methods: Adults diagnosed with metastatic breast, non-small cell lung (NSCLC), colorectal, head and neck, ovarian, and uterine cancer (2010Q1–2015Q1) were identified in the OptumHealth Care Solutions claims database and followed from first metastatic diagnosis for ≥1 month and until the end of data availability. Utilization was assessed for each cancer cohort (all and patients aged ≥65 years); per-patient-per-month (PPPM) medical service costs were assessed for all patients. Testing frequency estimates were applied to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program data to estimate the number of untested patients (2010–2014).

Results: Patients with metastatic cancer (n?=?8,193; breast [n?=?3,414], NSCLC [n?=?2,231], colorectal [n?=?1,611], head and neck [n?=?511], ovarian [n?=?275], and uterine [n?=?151]) were 63 years old (mean), with 11.1–22.2 months of observation. Biopsy and molecular diagnostic testing frequencies ranged from 7% (uterine) to 73% (ovarian), and from 34% (head and neck) to 52% (breast), respectively. Few were treated with GMTT (breast, 11%; NSCLC, 9%; colorectal, 6%). Treatment with UTT ranged from 0.7% (uterine) to 21% (colorectal). Biopsy, diagnostic testing, and anti-cancer drug therapy were less frequent for those ≥65 years. Medical service costs (PPPM, mean) ranged from $6,618 (head and neck) to $9,940 (ovarian). The estimated number of untested new patients with metastatic cancer was 636,369 (all) and 341,397 (≥65).

Limitations: In addition to the limitations of claims analyses, diagnostic testing frequency may be under-estimated if patients underwent testing prior to study inclusion.

Conclusions: The low frequency of molecular diagnostic testing suggests there are opportunities to better inform management of patients with advanced cancer, particularly decisions to treat with GMTT.     

Regulation,reputation, and environmental risk

This paper examines how preferences for social reputation affect the design of monetary incentives in an efficient mechanism for environmental risk. Our results are a high reputation firm receives less than optimal transfer; the low reputation firm sacrifices information rent.