The fed model: The bad,the worse,and the ugly

The negative relationship between stock market P/E ratios and government bond yields seems to have become conventional wisdom among practitioners. However, limited empirical evidence and a misleading suggestion that the model originated in the Fed are used to support the model's plausibility. This article argues that the Fed model is flawed from a theoretical standpoint and reports evidence from 20 countries that seriously questions its empirical merits. Despite its widespread use and acceptance, the Fed model is found to be a failure both as a normative and as a positive model of equity pricing.     

STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.     

Investment behaviour and “bull & bear” dynamics: modelling real and stock market interactions

In this article, we develop a simple behavioural macrodynamic model in continuous-time with the purpose of investigating the interaction of the real economy and the financial markets. Building on Westerhoff (Discret Dyn Nat Soc, 2012), we improve the specification of aggregate demand by distinguishing between consumption and investment expenditure and assuming that the latter is determined by the flexible accelerator principle. We remove the ad hoc nonlinearity in the fundamentalist behavioural rule and allow the composition of the population between chartists and fundamentalists to be endogenously determined. The resulting nonlinear dynamic systems are shown to generate various dynamic regimes, among which the coexistence of periodic attractors with interesting economic implications. Endogenous investment and stock market dynamics emerge, procyclical to each other, reflecting the interaction of induced investment with alternating waves in speculators’ sentiments. We show that a strong investment accelerator might be a crucial force generating fluctuations that, on the one hand, are transmitted and amplified by chartists and, on the other hand, are contained by fundamentalists.

     

On the fundamental thought behind voting rules

The theme is Arrow's requirement in his theorem of 1951 on methods for group choice, that the choice be independent of irrelevant alternatives. The attention is drawn to (1) his own explanation of this requirement in 1972, which is a quite different understanding than has been discussed in the voluminous literature on the theorem, (2) that Arrow, in fact, in 1985 showed an understanding for how irrelevant alternatives might in a meaningful way influence the group choice, (3) that admittedly the border-line between irrelevant and relevant alternatives in Arrow's original statement is arbitrary, and (4) that Arrow, if he had observed the final thought in the origin of the group theory by Borda, which he admittedly did not, might have realized that Borda's method stringently estimates the relevance of each alternative for the result.The author expresses his surprise that a theoretical conclusion based on an arbitrary fundament has been admired so long.     

Regional variations in entrepreneurial cognitions: Start-up intentions of university students in Spain

Empirical research has recently paid considerable attention to the role of environmental factors in explaining regional variations in entrepreneurial activity. However, cognitive models have not usually included these factors in their analyses. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to identify some of the environmental cognitive elements that may explain regional differences in start-up intentions. Thus, an entrepreneurial intention model is developed, theoretically based on the planned behaviour approach, institutional economic theory and social capital theory. The empirical analysis is carried out using structural equation techniques over a sample of 549 final year university students from two Spanish regions (Catalonia and Andalusia). Results confirm that valuation of entrepreneurship in each region helps explain regional differences in entrepreneurial intentions. As expected, social valuation of the entrepreneur was higher in the more developed region (Catalonia), positively affecting perceived subjective norms and behavioural control. In Andalusia, the influence of perceived valuation of the entrepreneur in the closer environment was more important, affecting attitude towards the behaviour and subjective norms. These results explain some of the differences in the pool of potential entrepreneurs in each region. They also justify the need by public-policy decision-makers to promote more positive entrepreneurial values in relatively backward regions.     

A metafrontier directional distance function approach to assessing eco-efficiency

This paper uses directional distance functions to extend the non-parametric metafrontier approach to efficiency measurement proposed by O’Donnell et al. (Empir Econ 34:231–255, 2008) to the assessment of technological differences in eco-efficiency between groups of producers. Furthermore, eco-efficiency is assessed at the level of specific environmental pressure management. This methodology is applied to a sample of Spanish olive producers that belong to both traditional mountain and traditional plain growing systems. We find great potential for both olive growing systems to reduce environmental pressures. In terms of pressures on natural resources, the most eco-efficient technology is the traditional plain system, while the traditional mountain system is the most eco-efficient when considering pressures on biodiversity. These results might help policymakers design strategies to improve the performance of olive growing and meet the demands of society regarding the economic and ecological functions of this farming activity.     

Enforcing Emissions Trading when Emissions Permits are Bankable

We propose enforcement strategies for emissions trading programs with bankable emissions permits that guarantee complete compliance with minimal enforcement costs. Our strategies emphasize imperfect monitoring supported by a high unit penalty for reporting violations, and tying this penalty directly to equilibrium permit prices. This approach is quite different from several existing enforcement strategies that emphasize high unit penalties for emissions in excess of permit holdings. Our analysis suggests that a high penalty for excess emissions cannot be used to conserve monitoring effort, and that it may actually increase the amount of monitoring necessary to maintain compliance.The authors are grateful to Anthony Heyes and three anonymous referees for their valuable comments. Partial support for this research was provided by the Cooperative State Research Extension, Education Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Massachusetts Agricultural Experiment Station under Project No. MAS00871.     

US deficit sustainability revisited: a multiple structural change approach

In this article we re-examine the long-run sustainability of US budget deficits, using Bai and Perron's multiple structural change approach. While the deficit would have been weakly sustainable over the full sample (1947:1–2005:3), strong sustainability would appear only between January 1982 and February 1996.