Is globalisation undermining the welfare state?

This paper analyses the evolution of the welfare states in themajority of OECD countries during the pre-globalisation (1946–80)and globalisation (1980–2000) periods. Our purpose isto find out whether globalisation has produced a convergencetowards a smaller welfare state, funded increasingly by non-mobilefactors such as labour, property and consumption rather thanby mobile factors such as capital. The data presented here challengethe claims about such a convergence, showing that social publicexpenditures and public employment have continued to expandduring the globalisation period in most OECD countries. We alsoshow that the welfare states remain rooted in the politicaltraditions that have governed them.     

Testing for output convergence: a re-examination

This paper investigates output convergence for the G7 countriesusing panel time-series techniques. We consider both the nullhypotheses of no convergence and convergence. It is shown thatinferences on output convergence depend on which one of thetwo null hypotheses is considered. Further, the no convergenceresults reported in previous studies using the time-series definitionmay be attributed to the low power of the test procedures beingused. Our results also highlight some potential problems oninterpreting results from some typical panel unit root and stationaritytests.     

Delaying retirement in Spain

We study the reform of the Spanish public pension system in a multiperiod, general equilibrium, overlapping generations model economy populated by heterogeneous households. Our households differ in their place of birth, in their age, in their education and, endogenously, in their employment status, in their wealth, and in their pension entitlements. They receive a stochastic endowment of efficiency labor units each period. And they face a disability risk and a survival risk. They understand the link between the payroll taxes that they pay and the public pensions that they receive. And they decide how much to consume and to work, and when to retire from the labor force. We calibrate this economy to Spanish data, and we use it to study the consequences of delaying three years the statutory retirement ages in 2010. We find this reform is sufficient to solve the sustainability problems that plague the current Spanish public pension system. Our model economy predicts that under the current rules, the pension system fund will run out in 2028 and in the reformed economy it will last until 2050. We also find that it is moderately expansionary, and that it improves social welfare from the year 2015 onwards. We conclude that policymakers should seriously consider delaying the statutory retirement ages in Spain sometime in the near future.     

TASTE FOR VARIETY AND OPTIMUM PRODUCT DIVERSITY IN AN OPEN ECONOMY

We extend the Benassy 'taste for variety' model to an open economy setting. With the Benassy effect, the market equilibrium is inefficient, openness reduces the varieties provided in the unconstrained optimum and there are potential gains from international coordination.     

Argentina: Macroeconomic Crisis and Household Vulnerability*

Using panel data from the Argentine Permanent Household Survey, this paper analyzes which households were more vulnerable to the Argentine macroeconomic crisis during 1999–2002. Results suggest that the impact of the crisis was not uniform across households, which differed in their ability to cope with shocks. In particular, households with more children, and whose head was male, less educated, and employed in the private sector were the most vulnerable, suffering larger than average declines in income. Shocks to labor income were significant, with both unemployment rates and unemployment spells increasing throughout the period, particularly during the peak of the crisis towards the end of 2001. Individuals with low levels of human capital (proxied by education and experience), males, and self‐employed were more likely to lose their jobs. Public sector employees, in contrast, were more protected from the impact of the crisis on employment.     

The fed model: The bad,the worse,and the ugly

The negative relationship between stock market P/E ratios and government bond yields seems to have become conventional wisdom among practitioners. However, limited empirical evidence and a misleading suggestion that the model originated in the Fed are used to support the model's plausibility. This article argues that the Fed model is flawed from a theoretical standpoint and reports evidence from 20 countries that seriously questions its empirical merits. Despite its widespread use and acceptance, the Fed model is found to be a failure both as a normative and as a positive model of equity pricing.     

Measurement Error in Access to Markets*

Microeconometric studies increasingly utilize travel times to markets as a determinant of economic behaviour. These studies typically use self‐reported measures from surveys, often characterized by measurement error. This paper is the first validation study of access to markets data. Unique data from Peru allow comparison of self‐reported variables with scientifically calculated variables. We investigate the determinants of the deviation between imputed and self‐reported data and show that it is non‐classical and dependent on observable socio‐economic variables. Our results suggest that studies using self‐reported measures of access may be estimating biased effects.