De samenhang tussen rentestanden in Nederland 1962–1970

Summary This paper examines the question how much independent variation exists among observed market interest rates in the Netherlands. Therefore a particular form of factor analysis, viz. principal component analysis, has been applied to a time series of monthly data for the period 1962–1970. Ten money market rates as well as ten capital market rates are analysed separately. By doing this we have found that on the money market about 96% of total variation is explained by the first component; an additional percentage of 2 is explained by the second principal component. For the capital market these percentages are 90 and 8. Similar results are obtained when subperiods are studied or when the money and capital market are pooled together.The main insights to be gained by this analysis are the following. First our results suggest that the first component identifies the true interest rate. The second principal component, which is highly correlated with the rate of return on shares, reflects the risk aspect of the rate of interest. The third component seemsto be related to the rate of inflation. The second results is that our analysis shows that the use of many different interest rates in macro models has only a limited economic meaning. The this conclusion is that the usual textbook distinction between money and capital markets does not show up in the principal components obtained.Ik ben veel dank verschuldigd aan de heren P. M. Cambeen en R. L. Coenen, medewerkers op de Studiedienst van de Nederlandsche Bank N.V., die mij behulpzaam zijn geweest bij het uitvoeren van de berekeningen voor dit onderzoek. Vanzelfsprekend komen eventuele tekortkomingen geheel voor miju rekening.     

Maximising sustainability of Dutch dairy farming systems for different stakeholders: A modelling approach

A multi-attribute sustainability function is included into a dairy farm LP-model by using Weighted Goal Programming. The created Weighted Linear Goal Programming (WLGP)-model is used to maximise sustainability of different Dutch dairy farming systems and to analyse the impact of: (1) maximisation of individual sustainability aspects (economic, social and ecological sustainability) and (2) maximisation of overall sustainability using stakeholder preferences. Maximising the individual aspects of both dairy farming systems, i.e. conventional and organic, shows the trade-offs between different aspects of sustainability. For conventional as well as organic dairy farming maximum scores are highest for external social sustainability. The conventional dairy farm achieves a slightly higher score for overall sustainability than the organic dairy farm for all stakeholders (i.e. consumers and producers). This shows that it is possible for conventional dairy farms, similar to the conventional farm used in the analysis especially regarding the stocking density and under Dutch policy conditions, to achieve equal sustainability scores in comparison with organic dairy farms. It is concluded that the WLGP model is a suitable tool to analyse the sustainability of different dairy farming systems.     

Robust min–max portfolio strategies for rival forecast and risk scenarios

We consider an extension of the Markowitz mean–variance optimization framework to multiple return and risk scenarios. It is well known that asset return forecasts and risk estimates are inherently inaccurate. The method proposed provides a means for considering rival representations of the future. The optimal portfolio is computed, simultaneously with the worst case, to take account of all rival scenarios. This is a min-max strategy which is essentially equivalent to a robust pooling of the scenarios. Robustness is ensured by the noninferiority of min–max. For example, a basic worst-case optimal return is guaranteed in view of multiple return scenarios. If robustness happens to have too high a cost, guided by the min–max pooling, it is also possible to explore other pooling alternatives. A min–max algorithm is used to solve the problem and illustrate the robust character of min–max with return and risk scenarios. We study the properties of the min–max risk–return frontier and compare with the potentially suboptimal worst-case where the investment strategy and the worst case are computed separately.     

ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

A new method for measuring congestion in data envelopment analysis

In data envelopment analysis (DEA), there are two principal methods for identifying and measuring congestion: Those of Färe et al. [Färe R, Grosskopf S. When can slacks be used to identify congestion. An answer to W. W. Cooper, L. Seiford, J. Zhu. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2001;35:1–10] and Cooper et al. [Cooper WW, Deng H, Huang ZM, Li SX. A one-model approach to congestion in data envelopment analysis. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2002;36:231–8]. In the present paper, we focus on the latter work in proposing a new method that requires considerably less computation. Then, by proving a selected theorem, we show that our proposed methodology is indeed equivalent to that of Cooper et al.     

Comparisons of Bayesian estimation procedures for two-way contingency tables without interaction

Bayesian and empirical Bayesian estimation methods are reviewed and proposed for the row and column parameters in two-way Contingency tables without interaction. Rasch's multiplicative Poisson model for misreadings is discussed in an example. The case is treated where assumptions of exchangeability are reasonable a priori for the unknown parameters. Two different types of prior distributions are compared, It appears that gamma priors yield more tractable results than lognormal priors.     

Firms as knowledge repositories

One reason firms exist is to serve as knowledge repositories. Firms compete against other firms and need profits to survive. Firms must be entrepreneurial to discover and act on profit opportunities. Knowledge required to spot profit opportunities is disbursed among economic actors and often is tacit knowledge that can only be obtained by those in close proximity. This gives rise to agglomeration economies, which can be leveraged within firms. In a competitive economy people have an incentive to keep knowledge from people in other firms, but to share it with those in their firm. One role of the firm is to act as a repository of knowledge for those within the firm’s boundaries, and to lower the cost of obtaining knowledge about profit opportunities. Entrepreneurs need firms to contain and capture the profits from their innovations.     

DOES EDUCATION LOAN DEBT INFLUENCE HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL DISTRESS? AN ASSESSMENT USING THE 2007–2009 SURVEY OF CONSUMER FINANCES PANEL

Families with student loans in 2007 have higher levels of financial distress than families without such loans, and these families also transitioned to financial distress at higher rates during the early stages of the Great Recession. This correlation persists once we control for a host of other demographic, work‐status, and household balance sheet measures. Families with an average level of student loans were 3.1 percentage points more likely to be 60 days late paying bills and 3 percentage points more likely to be denied credit. Families with other types of consumer debt were no more or less likely to be financially distressed. (JEL D14, H81, I22)