The pricing of electricity futures: Evidence from the European energy exchange

This study investigates the pricing of electricity futures at the European Energy Exchange (EEX) over the period 2002 through 2004. To calculate theoretical contract values, the reduced‐form models of J. J. Lucia and E. S. Schwartz (2002) are used, and a thorough empirical analysis by means of an out‐of‐sample test is conducted for both one‐ and two‐factor models, incorporating a constant non‐zero price of risk. Although the models are proven to capture all basic spot market characteristics and provide an accurate in‐the‐sample fit to observed futures prices, the forecasting performance is subject to biases. For instance, it was found that the relative mispricing depends on both the spot price level and the remaining time‐to‐maturity of the futures contracts. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:387–410, 2007     

Bundling in banking — A powerful strategy to increase profits

Banks can learn valuable lessons from the bundling models developed successfully in other industries. Bundling core banking products with additional services allows banks to differentiate themselves in a generally homogenous sector. Bundling also increases sales across product areas and aids customer lock-in. This paper provides an overview of how to create attractive and profitable bundles through a systematic, multi-stage approach to customer segmentation, targeting and product positioning.     

Book reviews

Recent regulatory initiatives stress that an independent oversight board, rather than the management board, should assume the role of auditors' client. In an experiment, we test whether the type of client affects auditors' independence. Unique features of the German institutional setting enable us to realistically vary the type of auditors' client as our treatment variable: we portray the client either as the management preferring aggressive accounting or the oversight board preferring conservative accounting. We measure auditors' perceived client retention incentives and accountability pressure in a post-experiment questionnaire to capture potential threats to independence. We find that the type of auditors' client affects auditors' behaviour contingent on the degree of the perceived threats to independence. Our findings imply that both client retention incentives and accountability pressure represent distinctive threats to auditors' independence and that the effectiveness of an oversight board in enhancing auditors' independence depends on the underlying threat.     

Foreign institutional investors and dividend policy: Evidence from China

This study examines whether foreign institutional investment influences firms’ dividend policies. Using data from all domestically listed nonfinancial firms in China during the period of 2003–2013, we find that foreign shareholding influences dividend decisions and vice versa.Furthermore, changes in dividend payments over time positively affect subsequent changes in foreign shareholding, but the opposite is not true. Our study indicates that foreign institutional investors do not change firms’ future dividend payments once they have made their investment choices in China. Moreover, they self-select into Chinese firms that pay high dividends. Our evidence suggests that in an institutional setting where foreign investors have tightly restricted access to local securities markets and a relatively high risk of expropriation by controlling shareholders exists, firms can use dividends to signal good investment opportunities to foreign investors.     

Same Same But Different: Dialects and Trade

Language is a strong and robust determinant of international trade patterns: Countries sharing a common language trade significantly more with each other than countries using different languages, holding other factors constant. In this article we present the first analysis of the effect of language on trade in an intra‐national context. Analyzing unique data for a single‐language country, Germany, we find that similarities in the local dialect have a significantly positive impact on regional trade. We interpret this finding as evidence for the trade‐promoting effect of culture, because linguistic similarities likely reflect cultural ties across regions, rather than lower costs of communication or similar institutions.     

Specialisation patterns and the synchronicity of regional employment cycles in Europe

This paper examines the degree of correlation, i.e. the synchronicity, among EU regional employment cycles and attempts to link it to changing patterns of specialisation. This topic deserves attention since the existing evidence seems to suggest a rather limited role for a region’s industry structure in explaining its employment growth. A dynamic panel data model is estimated for pairs of regions by within groups, i.e., by a standard fixed effects estimator. The results indicate that synchronicity between regions has declined and differences in regional industry structure can be held account for this.

FDI promotion through bilateral investment treaties: more than a bit?

Policy makers in developing countries have increasingly pinned their hopes on bilateral investment treaties (BITs) in order to improve their chances in the worldwide competition for foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the effectiveness of BITs in inducing higher FDI inflows is still open to debate. It is in several ways that we attempt to clarify the inconclusive empirical findings of earlier studies. We cover a much larger sample of host and source countries by drawing on an extensive data set on bilateral FDI flows. Furthermore, we account for unilateral FDI liberalization, in order not to overestimate the effect of BITs, as well as for the potential endogeneity of BITs. Employing a gravity-type model and various model specifications, including an instrumental variable approach, we find that BITs do promote FDI flows to developing countries. BITs may even substitute for weak domestic institutions, though probably not for unilateral capital account liberalization.     

A Unifying Framework and Comparison of Algorithms for Non-negative Matrix Factorisation

Non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) is an increasingly popular unsupervised learning method. However, parameter estimation in the NMF model is a difficult high-dimensional optimisation problem. We consider algorithms of the alternating least squares type. Solutions to the least squares problem fall in two categories. The first category is iterative algorithms, which include algorithms such as the majorise–minimise (MM) algorithm, coordinate descent, gradient descent and the Févotte-Cemgil expectation–maximisation (FC-EM) algorithm. We introduce a new family of iterative updates based on a generalisation of the FC-EM algorithm. The coordinate descent, gradient descent and FC-EM algorithms are special cases of this new EM family of iterative procedures. Curiously, we show that the MM algorithm is never a member of our general EM algorithm. The second category is based on cone projection. We describe and prove a cone projection algorithm tailored to the non-negative least square problem. We compare the algorithms on a test case and on the problem of identifying mutational signatures in human cancer. We generally find that cone projection is an attractive choice. Furthermore, in the cancer application, we find that a mix-and-match strategy performs better than running each algorithm in isolation.