Competing Risk Model for Technology Credit Fund for Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises

Despite the need to foster a technology‐intensive industry, most Korean SMEs (small and medium‐sized enterprises) are faced with the difficulty of raising funds. To resolve this problem, the government set up the technology credit fund to give loans to enterprises that achieve a certain technology evaluation score. However, many of the recipient SMEs fail to pay back the loans for various reasons. In this paper, we distinguish two causes of default due to owner and company, respectively, using the competing risk model. The proposed prediction models for competing defaults are expected to contribute to the healthy management of technology finance.     

The Benefits of Diverse Preferences in Library Consortia

We study the case in which a library consortium increases the aggregate payoff of the member libraries. We find that libraries with similar preferences are likely to lose from building a consortium and that those with diverse preferences are likely to gain by doing so. Combining libraries with diverse preferences implies that their valuation for different publishers' journals is more symmetric, which intensifies competition among publishers for scarce combined budgets. A tension between short term and long term considerations might generate a ‘library consortium trap.’ Our insight can be applied to other buyer groups as long as competition is generated by buyers' budget constraints.     

An analytic network process approach to partner selection for acquisition and development

To cope with rapid technological change and the increasing R&D costs during a period of decreasing technology and product life cycles, acquisition and development (A&D) has been suggested to be an important method for high-tech firms to achieve higher economic returns. However, few studies have examined the operational problems of choosing a compatible A&D candidate from a pool of potential A&D candidates. To address this limitation, this study proposes an approach based on the analytic network process (ANP) to rank a set of potential A&D candidates within a multivariate set of attributes systematically. A total of 25 criteria were identified and used to construct the ANP model in which the final selection is based on the resulting priorities assigned to the A&D candidates. A case study of a semiconductor manufacturing company was conducted to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. The results indicated that the proposed ANP method can aid in A&D decision-making problems systematically.     

GAN-MP hybrid heuristic algorithm for non-convex portfolio optimization problem

Abstract

During recent decades, the traditional Markowitz model has been extended for asset cardinality, active share, and tracking-error constraints, which were introduced to overcome the drawbacks of the original Markowitz model. The resulting optimization problems, however, are often very difficult to solve, whereas those of the original Markowitz model are easily solvable. In order to resolve the portfolio optimization problem for the new extensions, we developed a novel heuristic algorithm that combines GAN (Generative Adversarial Networks) with mathematical programming: the GAN-MP hybrid heuristic algorithm. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to bridge neural networks (NN) and mathematical programming to tackle a real-world portfolio optimization problem. Computational experiments with real-life stock data show that our algorithm significantly outperforms the existing non-linear optimization solvers.     

Balance‐of‐payment constrained growth: the case of China, 1979–2002

The aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period of 1979–2002. This study finds: (1) that for 1979–2002, the Chinese economy has grown on average as fast as Thirlwall’s Law predicts – the average actual growth rate and predicted growth rate were, respectively, 9.25 and 8.55, which are statistically identical; (2) that the growth of GDP and of exports are cointegrated. Both (1) and (2) provide strong support for Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period after 1978. The supportive result of Thirlwall’s Law implies the relevance of a demand‐side approach to the economic growth in China. For time series analyses, a bounds test approach is adopted.     

Cost-effectiveness of sequential urate lowering therapies for the management of gout in Singapore

Abstract

Aims: Allopurinol is the most common urate lowering therapy (ULT) used to treat gout but may cause life-threatening severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCAR) in a small number of patients. Risk of SCAR is increased for patients with the HLA-B*58:01 genotype. When alternative ULT is required, febuxostat or probenecid are recommended. The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-utility analysis of sequential ULT treatment strategies for gout, including strategies with and without HLA-B*58:01 genotyping prior to treatment initiation, with a view to inform optimal gout management in Singapore.

Materials and methods: A Markov model was developed from the Singapore healthcare payer perspective. Reflecting local practice, 12 different treatment strategies containing at least one ULT (allopurinol, febuxostat, probenecid) were evaluated in adults with gout. Response rates (SUA < 6mg/dL) were derived from an in-house network meta-analysis and from published literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated over a 30-year time horizon, with costs and benefits discounted at 3% per annum. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore uncertainties.

Results: Sequential treatment of allopurinol 300?mg/day-allopurinol 600?mg/day-probenecid (“standard of care”) was cost-effective compared to no ULT, with an ICER of SGD1,584/QALY. Allopurinol300-allopurinol600-probenecid-febuxostat sequence compared to allopurinol300-allopurinol600-probenecid had an ICER of SGD11,400/QALY. All other treatment strategies were dominated by preceding strategies. Treatment strategies incorporating HLA-B*58:01 genotyping before ULT use were dominated by the corresponding non-genotyping strategy.

Conclusions: Current standard of care (allopurinol300-allopurinol 600-probenecid) for gout is cost-effective compared with no ULT in the local context. Febuxostat is unlikely to be cost-effective in Singapore at current prices unless it is used last-line.     

Firms’ Beliefs and Learning: Models,Identification, and Empirical Evidence

Review of Industrial Organization - This paper reviews recent literature on structural models of oligopoly competition where firms have biased beliefs about the primitives of the model—e.g....     

Evaluation of global models

Complicated and sophisticated global models are available and popularly used (but commonly without model evaluation procedures), and hence, the question of how one can evaluate a global model is worth being investigated. We discuss whether or not these global models together can be fully utilized and, if so, how this might be achieved.     

Long-term forecasting and evaluation

Looking ahead thirty years is a difficult task, but is not impossible. In this paper we illustrate how to evaluate such long-term forecasts. Long-term forecasting is likely to be dominated by trend curves, particularly the simple linear and exponential trends. However, there will certainly be breaks in their parameter values at some unknown points, so that eventually the forecasts will be unsatisfactory. We investigate whether or not simple methods of long-run forecasting can ever be successful, after one takes into account the uncertainty level associated with the forecasts.     

The determinants of Korean foreign direct investment in manufacturing industries

Zusammenfassung Die Bestimmungsgründe für koreanische direkte Auslandsinvestitionen in der Verarbeitenden Industrie. - Der Autor liefert eine empirische Analyse der Bestimmungsgründe für die direkten Auslandsinvestitionen koreanischer Finnen in der Verarbeitenden Industrie und benutzt dabei firmenbezogene Daten. Es zeigt sich, da? es ?u?erst unterschiedliche Motive für diese Direktinvestitionen gibt, je nachdem, ob sie in entwickelten oder in weniger entwickelten L?ndern stattfinden. Einerseits sind die Auslandsinvestitionen ein Weg, um die Produktionskosten zu minimieren, die sich aus nichttarif?ren Handelsschranken entwickelter L?nder ergeben, andererseits dienen sie dazu, die niedrigen Arbeitskosten in Entwicklungsl?ndern zu nutzen.

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Résumé Les facteurs déterminants des investissments directs étrangers coréens dans l’industrie manufacturière. - En utilisant des données du niveau de l’entreprise, cette étude donne une analyse empirique des facteurs déterminants des investissements directs étrangers coréens en ce qui concerne les industries manufacturières. L’auteur prouve qu’il y assez de motivations différentes pour les investissements directs coréens dans des activités de production qui sont basées dans deux régions différentes, c’est à dire dans les pays développés et moins développés. Il trouve que les investissements directs étrangers coréens sont une méthode de minimiser les co?ts de production qui sont les résultats des barrières de commerce non-tarifaires établies par des pays développés ou une méthode d'exploiter la main d’œuvre bon marché dans des pays moins développés.

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Resumen Las determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa coreana en la industria manufacturera. - En este trabajo se provee un análisis empírico de las determinantes de la inversión extranjera directa de empresas coreanas en la industria manufacturera utilizando datos a nivel de empresa. Se provee evidencia en favor de que las inversiones directas de industrials coreanos en actividades manufactureras en dos regiones, en los países desarrollados y en los en desarrollo, responden a motivaciones muy diversas. Se encuentra que la inversion extranjera directa coreana es una manera de minimizar el costo de productión, ya sea evitando las barreras no arancelarias al comercio exterior en los países desarrollados o explotando la mano de obra barata en los países en desarrollo.