Econometrically accounting for identities and restrictions in models of interregional migration

"Interregional demographic identities and other restrictions are explicitly taken into account in a simple time-series model of interregional migration. This goal is accomplished through the imposition of adding-up constraints on the estimated coefficients of a multi-equation linear system and by testing for homogeneity and symmetry. The pitfalls of utilizing the described procedures for migration analysis and forecasting are discussed. Full implementation of the technique is shown to require far more time-series observations on interregional migration than are commonly available."     

The impact of relative residence times on the distribution of heavy drinkers in highly distinct environments

Alcohol consumption is a function of social dynamics, environmental contexts, individuals' preferences and family history. Empirical surveys have focused primarily on identification of risk factors for high-level drinking but have done little to clarify the underlying mechanisms at work. Also, there have been few attempts to apply nonlinear dynamics to the study of these mechanisms and processes at the population level. A simple framework where drinking is modeled as a socially contagious process in low- and high-risk connected environments is introduced. Individuals are classified as light, moderate (assumed mobile), and heavy drinkers. Moderate drinkers provide the link between both environments, that is, they are assumed to be the only individuals drinking in both settings. The focus here is on the effect of moderate drinkers, measured by the proportion of their time spent in “low-” versus “high-” risk drinking environments, on the distribution of drinkers.A simple model within our contact framework predicts that if the relative residence times of moderate drinkers are distributed randomly between low- and high-risk environments then the proportion of heavy drinkers is likely to be higher than expected. However, the full story even in a highly simplified setting is not so simple because “strong” local social mixing tends to increase high-risk drinking on its own. High levels of social interaction between light and moderate drinkers in low-risk environments can diminish the importance of the distribution of relative drinking times on the prevalence of heavy drinking.     

The impact of stakeholder heterogeneity on risk perceptions in technological innovation

Managing risk has been widely acknowledged as a crucial managerial task in the development of new technology. More recently, the acceptance of new technologies has increasingly been influenced by secondary stakeholders, some of which are difficult to identify, or whose concerns are not easily reconciled. This paper develops a conceptual framework based on the management of technology and research & development literature, stakeholder theory, risk and social judgment to describe how traditional approaches based on reducing uncertainties through estimating probabilities may not work for social uncertainties; different heuristics are needed to understand and resolve such heterogeneous stakeholder perspectives. We contribute to the discourse by describing how risk perceptions among stakeholders vary, and how this may change over time. The framework suggests that the perception of primary stakeholder towards a specific innovation is ‘Standard’ when information is well known, but becomes riskier when information is unclear. For secondary stakeholders, when there is a low degree of imperfect information, the stakeholder relationship is an ‘Irritant’ but becomes increasingly ‘Dangerous’ when information becomes ambiguous. We conclude with implications for management and future research.     

Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models

This paper incorporates vintage differences and forecasts into the Markov switching models described by Hamilton (1994). The vintage differences and forecasts induce parameter breaks close to the end of the sample, too close for standard maximum likelihood techniques to produce precise parameter estimates. A supplementary procedure estimates the statistical properties of the end-of-sample observations that behave differently from the rest, allowing inferred probabilities to reflect the breaks. Empirical results using real-time data show that these techniques improve the ability of a Markov switching model based on GDP and GDI to recognize the start of the 2001 recession.     

The productivity–wage relationship in South Africa: an empirical investigation

This article investigates the relationship between labour productivity, average real wages and the unemployment rate in South Africa at the macroeconomic level, using time‐series econometric techniques. There is strong evidence of a structural break in 1990, after which time all three variables rose rapidly. The break appears to have negatively affected the level of employment in the first instance, and subsequently fed through into per worker wages and productivity. A long‐term equilibrium (cointegrating) relationship was found between real wages and productivity, but unemployment was apparently unconnected to the system, which lends support to the insider–outsider theory. A long‐term wage–productivity elasticity of 0,58 indicates that productivity has grown more rapidly than wages, which is consistent with the finding that labour's share of gross output has been shrinking over the past decade. These trends may be explained plausibly by the adoption of job‐shedding technology and capital intensification.     

Do Boards of Directors Influence Corporate Sustainable Development? An Attention‐Based Analysis

Following the attention‐based view of the firm (ABV), boards of directors’ link to corporate sustainable development (CSD) could be dependent upon certain attention structures: valuation of environmental stimuli, rules of the game and the players. Studying a sample of large Australian firms, the findings indicate that the proposed attention‐directing structures do appear to be linked to CSD in a manner consistent with the ABV. Specifically, creating awareness through scanning efforts links boards to CSD. Stakeholder debate, as a boardroom rule, is also significantly associated with CSD. Furthermore, as a so‐called ‘player’ on the board, women directors have a moderating effect on the relationships between environmental scanning, stakeholder debate and CSD. The findings are discussed along with limitations and directions for future research. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Provision Point Mechanisms and Field Validity Tests of Contingent Valuation

Past field validity tests of contingent valuation have relied on voluntary contribution mechanisms to elicit actual willingness to pay, and may overestimate hypothetical bias because of free riding in the actual contributions. This paper argues that provision point mechanisms are a preferred alternative for field validity tests of contingent valuation because they increase the proportion of demand revealed in cases in which public goods can be provided in a step function. The results of a contingent valuation validity study of participation in a green electricity pricing program that uses a provision point mechanism are reported, and hypothetical open-ended and dichotomous choice responses are compared to actual participation. Calibration of hypothetical responses is also explored.