A model of the Dutch labour market (AMO-K)

Summary So far, the labour market has not received any special attention from macro-econometric model builders. In this article an attempt has been made to describe the labour market in detail, paying attention to such important phenomena as the friction between labour supply and demand, the heterogeneity of labour, the dependence of labour supply on the labour-market situation, the Phillips mechanism and the impact of real wages on labour demand. To make it suitable for policy simulations, the model has been extended to a complete macro-econometric model, taking account of the fact that both labour and capital limit the production possibilities.This paper summarises an extensive Dutch report on the construction of a model for the Netherlands labour market. The title of the original report is AMO-K: Een arbeidsmarktmodel met twee categorieën arbeid; (AMO-K, A labour-market model with two categories of labour) ; it was published by the Netherlands Economic Institute (NEI) in Rotterdam in the so-called Olive Series, 1982-2, pp. 403ff. Some details of the model presented in that report were changed after its publication; see G. den Broeder, AMO-K 81-12, Tussenrapport betreffende de verdere ontwikkeling van het arbeidsmarktmodel (Interim report on the further development of the labourmarket model), Rotterdam, September 1983. Since then, only minor changes have been carried through. The model reproduced in this paper is the modified version. The model was developed within the National Programme of Labour-Market Research (NPAO) (now defunct), the NPAO organisation having granted a commission to the NEI in Rotterdam.     

Assessment and selection of management consultants: A comparative cognitive study between small- and large-scale companies

This paper explores alternative ways of evaluating and ultimately hiring a generalist consultancy for short- and medium-term projects, and how this is shaped by the size of the clients’ company. What buying factors do managers of small and large firms have in mind when hiring consultants for their projects?Instead of employing surveys incorporating predefined buying factors based on what the researchers think would be important, a cognitive mapping methodology - the repertory grid technique - is applied to investigate the underlying phenomena. Using the repertory grid technique to draw mental models is a novel research technique within the supply management field. Recent behavioral supply chain management research found the behavior of managers to be critically influenced by mental models: the lenses through which managers perceive, simplify and interpret the world.Results show differences between the buying factors used in small- and large-scale companies: managers of large companies are more ‘reputation and outcome-oriented’ and managers of small businesses are more concerned with ‘how the services are rendered’. However, both constituents stressed the importance of expertise, quality and the relationship between the client and the management consultancy, although the character of such a relationship differed between small- and large-scale firms. Results also point out criteria that managers of small and large companies employ to discriminate between good and poor performing consultancies and to judge service delivery. The practical implications for both companies hiring consultancies and the consultancy companies are discussed. For consultancies, our findings can help tailoring their efforts to a differing clientele when marketing and selling their services. For companies hiring consultancies, fixating too much on particular buying factors may lead to biased decisions.     

Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices

Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power.     

Economic performance and “frontier” efficiency: A product life-cycle approach

We propose to introduce some economic performance variables of the firms and relate these with the corresponding frontier efficiency measures of 13 industries of the Belgian manufacturing sector in 1978. In order to find groups of similar firms by applying a cluster technique, we assume that this relationship is of a product life cycle nature.In the light of the product life cycle scheme itself and variations of it we can consider the possible explanatory variables of technical inefficiency in each group of firms as sources which intensify or slow-down the economic performance of the firm under consideration. Some cautious characterization of the top and bottom level clusters is formulated and linked to the efficiency issue.This paper was processed by N. R. Adam     

Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in environmental quality: An empirical analysis of deforestation

We use a panel data set of 59 developing countries over the 1972–1994 period to study the deforestation process. Relying on both parametric and semiparametric models, we examine nonlinearities and heterogeneity in the deforestation process. We first study the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and then analyze determinants of deforestation. Our data sample provides no evidence of an EKC. We also find that political institution failures may worsen the deforestation process in developing countries.     

Environmental technology foresight: New horizons for technology management

Decision-making in corporate technology management and government technology policy is increasingly influenced by the environmental impact of technologies. Technology foresight (TF) and environmental impact assessment (EIA) are analyzed with regard to the roles they can play in developing long-term strategies and policies for reducing the environmental impact of technologies. The methods for TF and EIA are quite well developed, but remain within a tradition of rational decision-making. However, recent studies of tecnology management and innovation have shown that technology development can be explained only to a certain degree by rational decision-making. EIA is usually presented as an objective and scientific method, based on normative underpinnings that usually remain hidden. Thus, systematic information-providing instruments such as TF and EIA can play only a limited role. We propose a procedure for environmental technology foresight. The case is made that environmental technology management will be most helped by a 'constructive' approach in order to stimulate incorporation of long-term environmental objectives.     

How Proper Is Sequential Equilibrium?

A strategy profile of a normal form game is proper if and only if it is quasi-perfect in every extensive form (with that normal form). Thus, properness requires optimality along a sequence of supporting trembles, while sequentiality only requires optimality in the limit. A decision-theoretic implementation of sequential rationality, strategic independence respecting equilibrium (SIRE), is defined and compared to proper equilibrium, using lexicographic probability systems. Finally, we give tremble-based characterizations, which do not involve structural features of the game, of the rankings of strategies that underlie proper equilibrium and SIRE.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: C70, C72.     

Structural Decomposition Analysis of Physical Flows in the Economy

Many environmental problems can be attributedto the extraction and emissions of physicalsubstances. Increasing our understanding of theeconomic and technological driving forcesbehind these physical flows can contribute tosolving the environmental problems related tothem. The input-output framework is a usefulsetting in which to integrate detailedinformation about economic structure andphysical flows. In this article a specificmethod in input-output analysis is reviewed,namely Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA).It is based on comparative static analysis,which decomposes historical changes of a policyvariable into determinant effects. SDA has beenapplied, for example, to analyze the demand andtechnological driving forces of energy use,CO₂-emissions and various other pollutantsand resources. This article examines thetheoretical aspects of structuraldecomposition, in particular those concerningphysical flows and environmental issues.Furthermore, the article includes an extensivesurvey of empirical studies.     

The Prosecution of Public Figures and the Separation of Powers. Confusion within the Executive Branch – A Conceptual Framework

Criminal investigation and prosecution of politicians, top civil servants and other public figures are topics frequently discussed in the media. The nature of the investigating or prosecuting authority varies between countries – from the general public prosecutor, through magistrates to independent counsels or parliamentary investigation commissions. This paper analyzes the role and status of public prosecutors within the separation of powers-concept. Prosecutors are usually part of the executive and not the judicial branch, which implies that they do not enjoy the same degree of independence as judges, and are ultimately subordinated to the directives of the minister of justice or the government. Conflicts of interest may hence arise if members of government can use the criminal process for their own or partisan interests. The incentives of public prosecutors in different jurisdictions are compared.     

An efficient budget allocation policy for decentralisation of responsibility for site decontamination projects

Selection and execution of site decontamination projects is often best left to local authorities, in accordance with the subsidiarity principle, even though the budget for such projects is made available through a central authority. In this paper we suggest a practical budget allocation policy which a central authority can employ to allocate budgets to local authorities, while still optimising the central authority's environmental objective function. The procedure is fully consistent with the principle of decentralisation of responsibility for selection and execution of projects, and requires a minimum information exchange between local and central levels. Despite the information asymmetry between local and central levels, incentive compatibility problems can be (partially) prevented by choosing an appropriate evaluation mechanism. At the same time, the procedure is computationally effective and efficient, and can guarantee a fair budget allocation, making it easy to implement and politically acceptable.