On estimating the mean of the selected normal population under the LINEX loss function

Following Parsian and Farsipour (1999), we consider the problem of estimating the mean of the selected normal population, from two normal populations with unknown means and common known variance, under the LINEX loss function. Some admissibility results for a subclass of equivariant estimators are derived and a sufficient condition for the inadmissibility of an arbitrary equivariant estimator is provided. As a consequence, several of the estimators proposed by Parsian and Farsipour (1999) are shown to be inadmissible and better estimators are obtained. Received January 2001/Revised May 2002     

Religion and International Trade: Does the Sharing of a Religious Culture Facilitate the Formation of Trade Networks?

A bstract .   Despite interest in the influence of religion on economic activity by early economists like Adam Smith, modern economists have done little research on the subject. In light of the apparent religious fervor in many parts of the global economy, economists' seeming lack of interest in studying how religious cultures enhance or retard the globalization of economic activity is especially surprising. This article makes a contribution toward filling this void by examining how religion affects international trade. Specifically, we examine whether the sharing of religious cultures enables the formation of exchange networks that can overcome the failure or nonexistence of other social and economic institutions necessary for completing complex international transactions. We apply an expanded gravity model of international trade to control for a variety of factors that determine trade, and we use two recently developed regression methods, scaled OLS and nonlinear least squares, to exploit the model to its fullest. We find that the sharing of Buddhist, Confucian, Hindu, Eastern Orthodox Catholic, and Protestant cultures by people in different countries has a significantly positive influence on bilateral trade, all other things equal. The sharing of Roman Catholic culture has a significantly negative influence on bilateral trade, and the sharing of Islamic and Judaic cultures neither promotes nor discourages international exchange. These results suggest that some religious cultures are more conducive than others for forming international trade networks.     

Measuring volatility with the realized range

Realized variance, being the summation of squared intra-day returns, has quickly gained popularity as a measure of daily volatility. Following Parkinson [1980. The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return. Journal of Business 53, 61–65] we replace each squared intra-day return by the high–low range for that period to create a novel and more efficient estimator called the realized range. In addition, we suggest a bias-correction procedure to account for the effects of microstructure frictions based upon scaling the realized range with the average level of the daily range. Simulation experiments demonstrate that for plausible levels of non-trading and bid–ask bounce the realized range has a lower mean-squared error than the realized variance, including variants thereof that are robust to microstructure noise. Empirical analysis of the S&P500 index-futures and the S&P100 constituents confirms the potential of the realized range.     

Rationing in open economy and dynamic macroeconomics: A survey

Summary A survey of rationing in micro theories of macroeconomics is presented. The survey starts with a closed economy with money and inventories, which consists of a representative household, a firm and government. After a discussion of the notional demands and supplies and the properties of the Walrasian equilibrium, a discussion of the effective demands and supplies leads to an analysis of the four regimes (Keynesian unemployment, classical unemployment, repressed inflation and underconsumption). A fiscal and monetary contraction decreases sales and employment when there is Keynesian unemployment, but is expansionary (neutral) when there is repressed inflation (classical unemployment). The survey continues with an analysis of the effects of rationing in a small open economy. It considers the one-sector model and a model with a traded and a nontraded sector. The latter model is used to discuss the effects of an oil discovery on the Gulf countries and on Latin American countries. The survey ends with a discussion of rationing in dynamic economies, which leads to an analysis of the effects of expectations about future constraints on current regimes and to a discussion of boot-strap equilibria.The author is Director of the Network for Quantitative Economics. This paper is a brief and eclectic survey of rationing models of closed one-period and two-period economies and of small open economies. It contains no significant new material. The author is grateful to Professor Theo van de Klundert for his constructive comments on an earlier version of this survey.     

Income distribution,economic structure and employment in South Africa

This paper discusses the impact of a redistribution of current income from the White to the Black population on the distribution of sectoral output, and total employment by means of a semi‐closed input‐output model.

The results show that a redistribution of current income towards Black households — which no doubt will have positive social and political repercussions — has a non‐negative effect on GDP and a definite positive effect on the performance of sectors with a high private consumption expenditure component, as well as on total employment.     

Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices

Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power.     

Debt Relief and Economic Growth in Mexico

Could external restraint and internal balance in Mexico havebeen reconciled at levels of savings and investment that allowedsatisfactory growth in output without the 1989–90 restructuringof debt? What are the likely implications of Mexico's "Bradydeal" on economic growth? What are the macroeconomic effectsof debt-equity swaps? This article develops and estimates amodel to address these issues. The analysis concludes that the1989–90 agreement in Mexico will contribute materiallyto macroeconomic stability and the restoration of economic growth.     

The welfare effects of import “subquotas” on heterogeneous product categories

In spite of its importance to policy makers, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the welfare effects of one aspect of trade policy-how to implement an import quota that applies to a heterogeneous product category. The government can impose a simple quota that applies indiscriminately to all goods within the product category or it can divide the quota among them with subquotas. In this paper, we analyze the welfare effects of subquotas. Under certain simplifying assumptions we find that a system of subquotas nearly always exists that provides greater welfare than a simple quota for a large country that retains quota rights or for a large or small country that gives quota rights away to foreigners. However, subquotas cannot increase the welfare of a small country that retains quota rights. The difference lies in the effect of imports on the home country's terms of trade.The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the US International Trade Commission. The authors are grateful for helpful comments on an earlier draft by anonymous referees.     

The Ju/'hoan Bushman Development Foundation and basic needs in eastern Bushmanland,Namibia

The Ju/'hoan Bushman Development Foundation (JBDF) is a multi‐dimensional development foundation which has as its main objective the raising of the standard of living of the indigenous Ju/'hoan Bushmen in eastern Bushmanland, Namibia. It has a basic needs approach to development.

The development activities of the Foundation started in 1981. The Nyae Nyae Farmers’ Cooperative, through which the Foundation now directs its development activities, was established in 1986. It is funded by various international development agencies, such as Christian Aid, NORAD, SIDA, Bread for the World, Oxfam Canada, and the EEC.

The basic needs approach of the Foundation addresses the following dimensions: water, food, cash, clothing, health, literacy and education, community esteem, and problems and propositions.