Country Differences in Material Deprivation in Europe

This paper assesses to what extent differences in the characteristics of individuals (micro‐level perspective) and country‐specific factors (macro‐level perspective) can explain country differences with respect to material deprivation levels. Thus, our work aims to simultaneously consider the macro dimension and the predominantly individually‐oriented study field of material deprivation using multilevel techniques. We make use of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. Our results show that country‐specific factors seem to be much more relevant than individual effects in explaining country differences in material deprivation. We estimate that the introduction of country‐specific factors reduces the proportion of total variance due to between‐country differences in deprivation by 72.7 percent, while individual‐level variables reduce this proportion by only 9.4 percent. We also show, through interaction variables, that the effect of sociodemographic characteristics can be shaped by institutional and structural factors, especially by the level of GDP.     

Does personal background influence a finance minister to cook the books? An investigation of creative accounting in Swiss cantons

This article aims to identify the factors influencing the use of creative accounting in the public sector. Its distinctive feature is that it sheds light on creative accounting when used, not to hide public deficits, but to conceal surpluses. It especially explores the impact of the finance minister’s (FM)’s background on the phenomenon. We take advantage of the quasi-experimental settings of the Swiss cantons in which the financial management act sets out the possibility of implementing certain accounting gimmicks, including mainly additional ‘depreciation’ charges. These charges, which are depreciations in name only, enable the FM to artificially inflate expenses, thus increasing the deficit or reducing the surplus. Our panel data set of the 26 cantons over the period 1980–2012 includes a new data set of creative accounting and of 116 cantonal FMs. Our results indicate that the FMs cook the books irrespective of their personal or ideological background with the exception that trained economists tend to apply creative accounting more. Additionally, stringent fiscal rules urge FMs towards more surplus-hiding accounting.     

Economic modelling of costs associated with outcomes reported for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients in the CANVAS and EMPA-REG cardiovascular outcomes trials

Aims: To model direct medical costs associated with reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in T2DM patients reported in the CANVAS and EMPA-REG trials, which assessed the cardiovascular safety of canagliflozin and empagliflozin, respectively.

Materials and methods: Costs were modeled from a US managed care organization (MCO) perspective for the CVD outcomes included in both trials: three-point major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and its components (cardiovascular-related death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke), as well as heart failure requiring hospitalization. The rate of CVD events averted (difference between study drug and placebo) was projected to the portion of an MCO T2DM population matching the respective trial’s inclusion criteria. A targeted literature search for paid amounts directly associated with each CVD event provided the unit costs, which were applied to the projected number of events averted, to calculate costs avoided per member per year (PMPY). One-way sensitivity analyses were performed on events averted, unit costs, and percentages of trial-applicable patients.

Results: Based on three-point MACE events averted, costs avoided PMPY of $6.17 (range: $1.27–$10.94) for CANVAS and $2.75 ($0.19–$4.83) for EMPA-REG were estimated. Costs avoided for individual components of MACE ranged from $0.77 to $3.84 PMPY for CANVAS and from -$0.97 (additional costs) to $1.54 for EMPA-REG. PMPY costs avoided for heart failure were $2.72 for CANVAS and $1.32 for EMPA-REG.

Limitations and conclusions: Models assumed independent, non-recurrent outcomes and were restricted to medical costs directly associated with the trial-reported events. The reductions in CVD events in T2DM patients reported for both CANVAS and EMPA-REG project to a positive cost avoidance for these events in an MCO population. The analysis did not include an assessment of the impact on total cost, as the costs associated with adverse events, drug utilization or other clinical outcomes were not examined.     

Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?

This paper finds that participants in the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters have submitted forecasts that are consistent with a (mostly forward-looking) empirical version of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area. The estimation technique takes advantage of the panel nature of the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ dataset to exploit both its time series and cross-section dimensions, and to control for unobservable individual heterogeneity across forecasters. The estimation results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter Phillips Curve in the euro area after 2007. However, the reasons suggested by the International Monetary Fund for this finding, namely a better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey data. Instead, the expectations for compensation per employee submitted by professional forecasters are consistent with the existence of downward real-wage rigidities in euro-area labour markets.     

Export survival and the dynamics of experience

This paper focuses on developing countries’ pioneer exports to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamics, linking export experience and export survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5-digit level for 114 developing countries over the 1962–2009 period, we show that prior export experience obtained in non-OECD markets significantly increases survival of pioneer exports toward the OECD. The experience does not need to last long, as gaining experience for more than two years does not confer any additional benefit. The effect of experience depreciates rapidly with time: a break in export experience prior to entering the OECD reduces the advantage on survival. Finally, the role of prior export experience is particularly relevant for survival in the first two years upon entry into the OECD. The geographic dynamic of export experience reveals that experience is acquired in neighboring, easy to access markets before reaching more distant, richer partners and ultimately serving the OECD with a higher probability of survival.     

The impact of working conditions on sickness absence: a theoretical model and an empirical application to work schedules

This paper explores how poor working conditions impact sickness absence through their effect on health. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we develop a static theoretical model based on the concept of health capital, wherein poor working conditions are partially compensated by higher wages. According to our model, the effect of working conditions on sickness absence is ambiguous. Second, we apply our model to the case of working time arrangements and test the effect of working irregular schedules or work around the clock on sickness absence, using data from the French Labor Force Survey on a specific population (male manual workers in private sector). As heterogeneity may lead to severe bias, we use propensity score matching methods. Our estimates show that working irregular schedules has a significant impact on sickness absence. The results are more mitigated for work around the clock. In any case, the extent crucially depends on age.