CO2 Multipliers in Multi-region Input-Output Models

In order to achieve equitable reduction targets, international trade has to be taken into account when assessing nations' responsibility for abating climate change. Especially for open economies such as Denmark, greenhouse gases embodied in internationally traded commodities can have a considerable influence on the national 'greenhouse gas responsibility'. We set up a five-region input-output model including Denmark, Germany, Sweden and Norway in order to calculate CO₂ multipliers and trade balances. We investigate multidirectional feedback between these countries, and hence the error inherent in a single-region input-output model. We also examine the effect of aggregation on the model results. In the case of Denmark, an 11 Mt CO₂ trade surplus resulting from a single-region model turns into balance when multidirectional trade is considered. Moreover, aggregated models are likely to result in significant errors. Therefore, both the type and the degree of aggregation used for modelling CO₂ responsibilities could have a major bearing in international negotiations.     

The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange,stock, and bond markets

We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets from variables in our information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Realized volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components, and the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is applied with implied volatility as an additional forecasting variable. A vector HAR (VecHAR) model for the resulting simultaneous system is introduced, controlling for possible endogeneity issues. We find that implied volatility contains incremental information about future volatility in all three markets, relative to past continuous and jump components, and it is an unbiased forecast in the foreign exchange and stock markets. Out-of-sample forecasting experiments confirm that implied volatility is important in forecasting future realized volatility components in all three markets. Perhaps surprisingly, the jump component is, to some extent, predictable, and options appear calibrated to incorporate information about future jumps in all three markets.     

Swedish Postwar Business Cycles: Generated Abroad or at Home?

The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks for the Swedish postwar business cycle is examined in a neoclassical stochastic growth model of a small open economy. Since recent research has shown that fiscal policy shocks may be important for business cycles, I extend previous work in the literature by allowing for stochastic fiscal policy. It is found that the introduction of fiscal policy improves the empirical fit of the model, although not significantly so when hours worked are detrended with the HP filter. The results suggest that domestic shocks are more important than foreign shocks for output fluctuations. Among the domestic shocks, innovations in fiscal policy seem to have been more important than technology shocks during this period. Foreign shocks are very important for fluctuations in the real exchange rate and the current account.     

Restructuring of the Danish pork industry: The role of mergers and takeovers, 1960–2010

This article examines the origins and effects of the evolution of the Danish pork industry characterised by three main merger waves resulting in 43 realised mergers and takeovers. The findings illuminate – in contrast to the traditional strategically motivated rationale – that the majority of the mergers were realised by cooperatives due to the inability to give the pig farmers competitive yearly refunds vis-à-vis local competitors, to financial difficulties or to the lack of investment capability of one of the merging parties. Despite a high-risky strategy, mergers and takeovers became the preferred consolidation mean due to capital constrains and the ‘close’ ownership structure of the cooperatives. Moreover, the study demonstrates that the outcomes of the M&A activities were generally positive.     

Living in a bubble: potential gains from flexible water management policies

We study Swedish implementation of the European Union’s Water Framework Directive, and compare the current implementation strategy with more flexible ‘bubble’ schemes, where measures can be traded among various locations within the same river system to reach the overall environmental target. Two different Swedish river systems, the Mörrum system with small-scale hydropower plants, and the Ångerman system with larger plants, are studied. We find that the environmental benefits that current policies are likely to accomplish could be achieved at well under half the cost in the Mörrum system, and at less than a tenth of the cost in the Ångerman system.     

The Social Dimension: convergence or diversification of IR in the Single European Market?

The discussions raised in the theories of convergence and diversification of industrial relations are again becoming relevant due to the Single European Market and the proposals coming from the EC-Commission regarding a common EC regulation and harmonisation of the European labour market. How far the EC-development will imply an internationalisation of European industrial relations is analysed here.     

Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach

The New-Keynesian Phillips curve has recently become an important ingredient in monetary policy models. However, using limited information methods, the empirical support for the New-Keynesian Phillips curve appear to be mixed. This paper argues, by means of Monte Carlo simulations with a simple New-Keynesian sticky price model, that single equations methods, e.g. GMM, are likely to produce imprecise and biased estimates. Then, it is argued that estimating the model with full information maximum likelihood (FIML) is a useful way of obtaining better estimates. Finally, a version of the model used in the Monte Carlo simulations is estimated on U.S. data with FIML and although the pure forward-looking New-Keynesian Phillips curve is rejected, a version with both forward- and backward-looking components provides a reasonable approximation of U.S. inflation dynamics.     

Credit Risk Versus Capital Requirements under Basel II: Are SME Loans and Retail Credit Really Different?

Under Basel II, retail and SME credit (R&SME) receive special treatment because of a supposedly smaller exposure to systemic risk. Most research on this issue has been based on parameterized credit risk models. We present new evidence by applying Carey's (Carey, Mark. “Credit Risk in Private Debt Portfolios.” Journal of Finance 53, no. 4 (1998), 1363–1387.) nonparametric Monte-Carlo resampling method to two banks' complete loan portfolios. By exploiting that a sub-sample of all borrowers has been assigned an internal rating by both banks, we can compare the credit loss distributions for the three credit types, and compute both economic and regulatory capital under Basel II. We also test if our conclusions are sensitive to the definitions of R&SME credit. Our findings show that R&SME portfolios are usually riskier than corporate credit. Special treatment under Basel II is thus not justified. JEL classification: C14, C15, G21, G28, G33.     

Revisiting a Social Constructionist Approach to Crisis Communication– Investigating Contemporary Crises in China

ABSTRACT

The current study provides a social constructionist approach to crisis communication in the Chinese context. Crisis communication is viewed as a form of strategic communication, involving multiple stakeholders in situations that are dependent on context, space and time. This approach provides a much-needed path for investigating and understanding crisis communication practices in contemporary China. The distinct Chinese context for crisis communication, with both an authoritarian government structure and a digital transformation of society, challenges theories originally developed in the Western countries. To address this issue, this study proposes a three-theme analytical framework to examine crisis communication practices in the Chinese context: (1) an audience (or stakeholder) orientation—focusing sense-making, (2) a proactive and interactive approach—focusing communication, and (3) a community—focused approach—focusing a long-range precrisis perspective.     

Trust and Brand Recovery Campaigns in Crisis: Findus Nordic and the Horsemeat Scandal

The aim of this study is to describe and analyze a transboundary crisis, focusing on crisis communication from the perspective of an involved major corporation. More concretely, the intent is to increase understanding of how Findus Nordic in Sweden managed the crisis communication response and repair of its trust and corporate brand during and after the horsemeat scandal in 2013. The case study is based on a theoretical framework that consists of three theories or concepts: transboundary crisis, image repair strategy, and rhetorical arena. Findus Nordic followed its corporate values and applied a consistent image repair strategy: denial and blame shifting towards the supplier Comigel in an extremely multivocal arena. This strategy was supplemented with responsibility evasion. Towards the end of the public crisis, Findus Nordic used the crisis as an opportunity to recover their position and started a campaign that had a positive impact on trust and the corporate brand. The launch of the campaign was very fast and might have been dangerous. However, according to the analysis, the success of the campaign may be explained as a consequence of its sensemaking and auto-communicative approach.