基于H-P滤波分解模型在成长链金融风险中的实证分析

不同于传统个人金融业务的授信理念,成长链金融理论创新性提出了个人整个生命周期授信思路,结合多元化金融工具,契合了不同个体在其各生命周期阶段性的金融需求,对于金融模式的创新具有理论和实践的重要贡献.然而,这一新兴的金融模式理论能否有效地解决目前个人授信业务中的低效率、逆向选择和道德风险等问题,就取决于它能否实现个人成长链金融风险的可控性并突破传统阶段性授信模式的局限.采用中国宏观数据及南京市居民的10 000人网络抽样调查数据,一方面,基于适当的经济学假设和经济学思维构建了成长链金融风险控制理论模型,对个人成长链金融风险的可控性进行论证;另一方面,提出利用“个人终生信贷率”作为个人成长链金融风险测度,并利用H-P滤波分解模型进行实证分析,进一步分析成长链金融风险的可控性.最后,提出完善个人成长链金融风险控制的合理化对策.     

基于产业调整的煤炭资源型城市经济发展研究——以万盛资源型城市转型为例

万盛因煤而兴,以矿而立,经过几十年的开采,煤炭资源的存储量逐步减少,难以支撑万盛经济的长期发展,并且煤炭经济所带来的一系列环境和社会问题也日益突出。万盛急需寻找新的发展之路,实现经济转型,减缓资源环境压力,以传统产业改造为根本,发展集聚经济;以旅游产业为突破口,重点发展服务业;以特色农业为目标,走绿色农业规模化发展道路等方面对万盛资源型城市转型发展提出一些思路,以期对万盛地区经济发展有所裨益。     

The antecedents of tourists’ gaming spend: does the brand prestige matter?

This study endeavors to empirically analyse the influential effect among brand prestige, service quality, casino visitor satisfaction and spend. Data from 304 tourists who had travelled to Macau and had participated in gambling activities were used and structural equation modelling and multi-group analysis were employed in hypotheses testing. The findings demonstrated that both brand prestige and perceived service quality are determinants of satisfaction and gaming spend, and that brand prestige also affects service quality positively. Furthermore, past experience moderates the service quality and visitors’ satisfaction relationship, also service quality and visitors’ gaming spend relationship.     

Employee mobility,spin‐outs,and knowledge spill‐in: How incumbent firms can learn from new ventures

Research summary: We consider conditions in which incumbent firms are particularly poised to benefit from knowledge spilling in from new ventures that employ individuals previously employed by the focal incumbent firm. We distinguish between inventors who leave their incumbent employers to found spin‐outs and those who become non‐founding employees of existing new ventures. Using a sample of new ventures and incumbent firms in the U.S. information technology (IT) sector, we find that incumbents are more likely to benefit from patented knowledge that spills in from their spin‐outs than from new ventures that employ non‐founding inventors formerly employed by the respective incumbent. Any advantage that parent firms have in reaping such knowledge quickly dissipates, however, when these parents have a history of misappropriating the intellectual property of others. Managerial summary: It has long been acknowledged that new ventures can acquire valuable knowledge from their larger and more established counterparts by hiring away their talented employees. We consider the possibility of a reverse flow of knowledge where established firms learn from those new ventures that have poached employees from them. We find that established information technology (IT) firms are more likely to learn and build on the technology of their spin‐outs (i.e., new ventures founded by their former inventors) than from new ventures that simply employ non‐founding inventors formerly employed by the respective IT firm. Any advantage that these IT firms had in reaping technical know‐how from their spin‐outs quickly dissipated, however, when they had a history of misappropriating the intellectual property of others. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于边际税率差模型的税收筹划动力源泉分析

在税收法律制度框架内,现代企业拥有税收筹划与非税收筹划两种节税手段,企业选择非税收筹划必然遭到税收法律的严厉制裁,增加企业的节税成本.通过构建边际税率差模型,我们发现企业存在内在驱动因素使其选择税收筹划来增大企业的税后收益,从而实现企业价值最大化目标,这一内在驱动因素就是边际税率差最小化.     

荣誉的力量:授予全国文明城市称号能否激励地方强化企业减排?

健全环境治理领导责任体系是推动生态环境根本好转的核心,这不仅需要有力的问责机制,更需要有效的激励机制.作为典型的激励政策,全国文明城市评选以环境质量改善为重要依据,授予该称号能否激励地方强化企业减排,产生荣誉的力量,这是验证这一激励机制是否有效的关键.为此,使用1999-2008年中国制造业企业污染排放数据,以化学需氧量(COD)排放为例,从微观视角系统考察全国文明城市评选在环境治理层面的政策效果.研究发现,地方获得全国文明城市称号后,能显著促进企业COD减排,彰显荣誉的力量.这一减排效应,尤其体现在国有、外资控股、大规模、污染密集型行业以及东部地区的企业.探究其机制,发现授予全国文明城市称号具有鲜明的政治激励特征,能引发政治强激励官员,通过强化企业源头防治、提高清洁生产技术、引进高质量绿色企业等方式实现减排.利用新增企业信息,发现称号授予的减排效应没有以牺牲邻近城市为代价,引发污染就近转移,反而激励邻近城市引进高质量绿色企业.研究不仅从微观层面补充环境激励型政策是否有效的实证检验,而且从理论层面为构建现代环境治理体系、推动绿色发展提供科学依据.     

长三角地区居民消费结构及水平的统计分析

应用因子分析和聚类分析的方法,对2006年长三角16座城市居民的消费结构、消费水平进行分析和比较。结果表明,长三角16城市在居民可持续消费能力上存在差距,在居民消费结构和消费水平上可分为五类,其中上海、杭州的消费水平最高。文章还对如何提高居民消费水平,促进经济协调发展提出了对策。     

我国民用机场服务创新研究

机场服务创新是提升机场服务业竞争能力的重要途径。为了提升我国民用机场服务创新能力,运用分析研究方法,首先阐述我国民用机场服务创新必要性的基础上,然后深入分析服务创新在机场服务中的体现,最后提出我国机场服务创新的基本路径。结果表明:由于机场服务的特殊性,需要从制定和完善机场服务创新政策,机场服务提供者深入开展组织学习,并从服务理念、服务流程、服务载体、服务方式等方面,实行渐进性创新和局部性创新始发,进而扩展到系统性全局性创新,实现我国机场服务质量的整体性飞跃,从而为建设民航强国提供支撑。     

新医改的区域选择、操作规程与政策匹配:粤省个案

基于改革的制度逻辑矫正,以及一系列政策措施来推进医疗医保体制机制和管理与服务创新,可有效达成新医改的区域整合制度安排。"湛江模式"的实质是引入社保基金的增值业务托管或增值再保险,建立微利型专业健康险代理制,继而尝试构建公共医疗医保的协同增值服务体系,核心是实现"二次增值险+第四方协同服务"的城乡一体化健康保障普惠模式。此模式不仅为我国新医改的区域选择提供了成功样本,也为其他社会公共领域改革提供了借鉴。