马尔可夫链在经济预测上的应用

本文将马尔可夫链引入到经济学中 ,通过建立产品的状态转移概率矩阵 ,利用马尔可夫链进行分析和计算 ,给出产品的市场预测、利润预测及风险决策的数学模型 ,从而给经济预测提供切实可靠的理论依据。     

试议我国零售商自有品牌的开发

开发零售商自有品牌是零售商取得市场经营的主动权,增强市场竞争能力,更好地满足消费者多样化需求的有效途径之一,是零售商实施品牌战略的重要手段。在开发自有品牌过程中零售商具有多种优势,也存在一定的困难,但它已成为商品品牌发展的重要趋势。     

以知识联盟塑核心能力——论我国内资旅行社的市场竞争战略

随着我国旅行社行业的不断开放,小、散、弱、差的内资旅行社必须紧紧把握世界范围内的服务产业知识化的浪潮,塑造自己的核心能力,改造成为知识服务实体,方能在今后的竞争中生存和获胜。旅行社要获得持续的竞争优势,在满足顾客需求成为企业生命线的今天,必须具备的两个能力是满足顾客需求和发挥员工的积极性和智慧。旅行社的核心能力可以而且必须通过知识联盟来实现。     

Activist‐impelled divestitures and shareholder value

Research Summary : This study analyzes how the divestitures that are impelled by activist investors in their campaigns against public corporations affect shareholder value. Using hand‐collected data on the activist campaigns that were launched against and the divestitures that were undertaken by Fortune 500 companies between 2007 and 2015, we find that activist‐impelled divestitures are more positively associated with immediate and longer‐term measures of shareholder value than comparable manager‐led divestitures. These performance differences persist for nearly two years after the completion of these deals. Our results empirically test the idea that firms with agency problems unlock shareholder value when they divest, and support the notion that activist investors fulfill an important external governance function. Our work also opens new research opportunities and offers practical implications as well. Managerial Summary : This study investigates how divestitures that are undertaken at the behest of activist investors affect shareholder value. We find that divestitures that were undertaken under pressure from activist investors are associated with more positive shareholder returns than comparable divestitures that were undertaken voluntarily by managers. These performance differences persist for nearly two years after the completion of these deals, alleviating concerns about the purported short‐termism of activist investors. Our findings suggest that activist investors may fulfill an important governance function by inducing managers to undertake strategies that they might not otherwise pursue, thereby unlocking shareholder value.     

The differential effects of CEO narcissism and hubris on corporate social responsibility

Research Summary: While prior studies have predominantly shown that CEO narcissism and hubris exhibit similar effects on various strategic decisions and outcomes, this study aims to explore the mechanisms underlying how narcissistic versus hubristic CEOs affect their firms differently. Specifically, we investigate how peer influence moderates the CEO narcissism/hubris—corporate social responsibility (CSR). With a sample of S&P 1500 firms for 2003–2010, we find that the positive relationship between CEO narcissism and CSR is strengthened (weakened) when board‐interlocked peer firms invest less (more) intensively in CSR than a CEO's own firm; the negative relationship between CEO hubris and CSR is strengthened when peer firms are engaged in less CSR than a CEO's own firm. Managerial Summary: Some CEOs are more narcissistic while others may be more hubristic, but these two groups of CEOs hold different attitudes toward the extent to which their firms should engage in corporate social responsibility (CSR). Our findings with a large sample of U.S. publically listed firms suggest that narcissistic CEOs care more about CSR, but hubristic CEOs care less. Interestingly, when narcissistic CEOs observe their peer firms engaging in more or less CSR than their own firms, they tend to respond in an opposite manner; in contrast, hubristic CEOs will only engage in even less CSR when their peers also do not emphasize CSR. Our findings point to a fundamental difference between CEO narcissism and hubris in terms of how they affect firms' CSR decisions based on their social comparison with peer firms.     

我国货币流动性过剩之谜

自去年初以来直到目前,我国流动性过剩始终是一个热门话题,不仅因为央行在最近几年虽然不断治理过剩的货币流动性,仍未见较好的结果,也因为巨大的过剩货币正在强劲地推动我国的资产价格上涨,从而开始积攒起日益扩大的资产"泡沫"风险.     

高度重视经济运行中的流动性过剩问题

我国经济运行中流动性过剩问题严重 自2003年我国走出通货紧缩的阴影后,经济就步入了新一轮增长的周期,连续4年国内生产总值保持两位数的增长,而物价水平却控制在1.2%～3.9%的涨幅内.     

我国基金热的冷思考

我国基金的雏形产生于1992年,而真正规范的基金则起源于1998年.经历了多年跌宕起伏,终于在2006年形成了高潮.伴随着股票市场大幅上涨,基金市场亦是水涨船高.火爆的行情吸引着大量基民涌入.     

充分利用我国水资源

水,是基础性的自然资源和战略性的稀缺资源.在全球经济日益发展的今天,水危机日益严重.水资源的可持续利用,已成为事关人类发展的紧迫问题.我国作为经济高速发展的人口大国,面临着更为紧迫的水资源和水环境压力.采取科学、恰当的应对措施,尽快解决水资源严重短缺与经济快速发展对其需求日益增加这一突出矛盾,是摆在全党和全国人民面前的一项重大课题.而充分利用好我国的水资源(雨水和冰雪),不失为解决这一问题行之有效的措施之一.     

基于EVA的国有商业银行股权激励机制探讨

随着商业银行股份制改革的不断深化和推进,解决内部人控制问题已成为商业银行法人治理结构完善的关键一步。而造成内部人控制的关键因素就是由于商业银行目前经营层薪金较低所导致的。因此针对这一问题的重要性,本文从目前薪金制度的缺陷入手,分析了推行股权激励在商业银行薪酬制度改革中的合理性;并针对目前我国的制度缺陷和股票期权自身的不足,提出了基于经济增加值(EVA)的股票期权激励,以解决商业银行目前薪金激励机制中的不足。