The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

Can Operating Leverage Be the Cause of the Value Premium?

Recent theoretical models (Carlson, Fisher, and Giammarino, 2004) predict an association between the book-to-market equity ratio (BE/ME) and operating leverage in the cross-section. Consistent with these models, we find a positive association between BE/ME and the degree of operating leverage (DOL), between DOL and stock returns, and between DOL and systematic risk. Overall, our findings provide support for a risk-based explanation for the value premium that is consistent with existing theoretical models. The evolution of systematic risk associated with firm-level investment activity, rather than financial distress, seems to be the main determinant of the value premium.     

A conceptual framework for public-private interplay in the telecommunications sector

Public activity in the telecommunications industry has experienced important transformations in the last decade: “reinvolvement” in infrastructure deployment, “innovative” boosting measures, and decentralisation of some decisions. Conceptually, even more important than the measures themselves is the fact that private agents often participate in their realisation and execution. This paper reviews how justifications for public action that would apply to any economic activity area have modelled the public-private relationship in the telecommunications sector. Subsequently, it focuses on the analysis of the new spaces for public-private collaboration that are currently opening up.     

EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONES: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability. We discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models. In an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the Krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes, this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models, such as imperfect credibility, intra‐marginal interventions and sticky price models. It was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate, its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential, and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than U shaped. This implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities, ‘honeymoon effect’, ‘smooth pasting’ and marginal interventions has vanished. Exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra‐marginal interventions, with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band.     

Inefficient sales delays by a durable‐good monopoly facing a finite number of buyers

This article offers a new explanation for unscheduled price cuts and slow adoption of durable goods. We study a standard durable‐good monopoly model with a finite number of buyers and show that this game can have multiple subgame perfect equilibria in addition to the Pacman outcome—including the Coase conjecture. Of particular interest is a class of equilibria where the seller first charges a high price and only lowers that price once some—but not all—high‐valuation buyers purchase. This price structure creates a war of attrition between those buyers, which delays market clearing and rationalizes unscheduled purchase and price cut dates.     

Is There an Optimal Constitution?

The optimal constitution is one that protects people from politicians' thirst of power and preserves citizens' civic virtues. This paper presents a model that blends David Hume's (1741) consideration that in politics every man ought to be supposed a knave, with John Stuart Mill's (1861) conception of self-interested politicians. The optimal constitution is proved to be feasible. However, there are two possible equilibria, the Frey and Brennan-Buchanan equilibrium. It is shown that Bruno Frey's (1997) crowding-in and crowding-out analysis is a particular case of our model. In the Brennan-Buchanan equilibrium there is a long-run neutrality of enforcement on citizens' performance. In general, a trade-off is expected between the optimal number of laws and enforcement. The comparison between the equilibria shows that the Frey equilibrium is the best option to enhance the civic virtues of citizens, while the Brennan-Buchanan equilibrium is the best way to deter the ambitions of self-interested politicians.     

A learning methodology using Matlab/Simulink for undergraduate electrical engineering courses attending to learner satisfaction outcomes

Learner-centred approaches follow the prevailing tendency in modern University reforms which are primarily concerned about “how people learn”. The methodologies can be learner-centred in the sense of placing the student as the main actor of the teaching–learning process by increasing his interactivity and participation, but also considering what is relevant for the student by measuring the learner satisfaction. In order to promote both aspects, this paper proposes a synchronous software-based active methodology that makes use of the simulations to show a virtual scenario to the students and challenge them to predict and discuss the evolution of the scenario. The proposed methodology improves the visual interface, promotes discussion both among students and with the teacher in a brainstorming stage and shows real-world examples. This software-based methodology has been implemented into an Electric Machinery course at the University of Seville (Spain), and the evaluation has been carried out considering both the affective and cognitive domains. Principal components analysis proves to be useful to highlight the dimensions with a higher influence on learner satisfaction and the affective and cognitive results confirm the successful implementation of the proposal.     

Access pricing: A comparison between full deregulation and two alternative instruments of access price regulation,cost-based and retail-minus

In this paper, two instruments of access price regulation, cost-based and retail-minus, are compared with the full deregulation hypothesis. For this purpose, a model that considers an upstream monopolist firm that sells a vital input to an independent firm and to a subsidiary firm in the downstream market is developed. The main conclusion of the paper is that retail-minus regulation avoids foreclosure and leads to better results than cost-based regulation in terms of investment level and consumer surplus. Moreover, retail-minus regulation allows a higher consumer surplus than deregulation of access price as long as the regulator carefully defines the retail-minus instrument.     

On the stability of value added indicators

This paper shows how relevant concepts in educational effectiveness can support public policy in order to improve the performance of educational systems. Specifically, value-added indicators and the property of their stability over time is addressed with reference to application to school/teacher improvement. Findings of a longitudinal study developed in Portugal concerning primary education in mathematics are presented. Variance component models are fitted in order to obtain those indicators yearly to class-school units. Results of this study reveal that value-added indicators can be a useful instrument for progressive improvement in education, particularly in countries with high rates of student retention and evasion. The novelty of this paper is to measure value added over a single year rather than all stage of schooling that refers to more than 1 year.     

Workforce Diversity and Religiosity

Journal of Business Ethics - Workforce diversity has received increasing amounts of attention from academics and practitioners alike. In this article, we examine the empirical association between a...