Abnormal Returns from Takeover Prediction Modelling: Challenges and Suggested Investment Strategies

While takeover targets earn significant abnormal returns, studies tend to find no abnormal returns from investing in predicted takeover targets. In this study, we show that the difficulty of correctly identifying targets ex ante does not fully explain the below‐expected returns to target portfolios. Target prediction models’ inability to optimally time impending takeovers, by taking account of pre‐bid target underperformance and the anticipation of potential targets by other market participants, diminishes but does not eliminate the potential profitability of investing in predicted targets. Importantly, we find that target portfolios are predisposed to underperform, as targets and distressed firms share common firm characteristics, resulting in the misclassification of a disproportionately high number of distressed firms as potential targets. We show that this problem can be mitigated, and significant risk‐adjusted returns can be earned, by screening firms in target portfolios for size, leverage and liquidity.     

Valuation of forward start options under affine jump-diffusion models

Under the general affine jump-diffusion framework of Duffie et al. [Econometrica, 2000, 68, 1343–1376], this paper proposes an alternative pricing methodology for European-style forward start options that does not require any parallel optimization routine to ensure square integrability. Therefore, the proposed methodology is shown to possess a better accuracy–efficiency trade-off than the usual and more general approach initiated by Hong [Forward Smile and Derivative Pricing. Working paper, UBS, 2004] that is based on the knowledge of the forward characteristic function. Explicit pricing solutions are also offered under the nested jump-diffusion setting proposed by Bakshi et al. [J. Finance, 1997, 52, 2003–2049], which accommodates stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates, and different integration schemes are numerically tested.     

A note reconsidering a post-Keynesian model of growth and distribution in the globalization context

We treat an extension of the Metcalfe and Steedman model of growth and distribution in a small open economy with government activity. We show, simultaneously, that certain kinds of taxation and government expenditures will not affect the essential nature of the “Cambridge Equation.” This is important due to the increasing process of Financial Globalization which can be responsible for changing the profit distribution between capitalists and workers. The present note aims at integrating the public sector and the foreign trade together into the model, based on previous literature that, with few exceptions, treats them separately. To do so, a new framework is proposed. Our contribution shows that workers’ income grows when the Current Account in the balance of payments is in surplus, a result not studied by Teixeira and Araújo. The discussion includes recent literature concerning with limits of applicability of such analytical model, dealing with more realistic economies including the process of globalization.     

Speculative pressure

The paper investigates the information content of speculative pressure across futures classes. Long-short portfolios of futures contracts sorted by speculative pressure capture a significant premium in commodity, currency, and equity markets but not in fixed income markets. Exposure to commodity, currency, and equity index futures’ speculative pressure is priced in the broad cross-section after controlling for momentum, carry, global liquidity, and volatility risks. The findings are confirmed by robustness tests using alternative speculative pressure signals, portfolio construction techniques, and subperiods interalia. We argue that there is an efficient hedgers-speculators risk transfer in commodity, currency, and equity index futures markets.     

Built environment analysis for road traffic hotspot locations in Moshi,Tanzania

Road traffic injuries (RTIs) cause significant morbidity and mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Investigation of high risk areas for RTIs is needed to guide improvements. This study provides built environmental analysis of road traffic crash hotspots within Moshi, Tanzania. Spatial analysis of police data identified 36 hotspots. Qualitative comparative analysis revealed 40% of crash sites were on local roads without night lighting and increased motorcycle density. Paved narrow roads represented 26% of hotspots and 13% were unpaved roads with uneven roadsides. Roadside unevenness was more predominate in low risk [n = 19, (90.5%)] than high risk sites [n = 7 (46.7%)]. Both low [n = 6 (28.6%)] and high risk [n = 1 (6.7%)] sites had minimal signage. All sites had informal pedestrian pathways. Little variability between risk sites suggests hazardous conditions are widespread. Findings suggest improvement in municipal infrastructure, signage and enforcement is needed to reduce RTI burden.     

Fostering mutual gains: Explaining the influence of high‐performance work systems and leadership on psychological health and service performance

Despite the growing importance of sustainable management of human resources, human resource management and leadership research on mutuality in the employment relationship has proceeded in a parallel fashion. Drawing on self‐determination theory, this study proposes an integrative model of human growth by addressing two interrelated questions: (a) how and why experienced service‐oriented high‐performance work systems (HPWS) and unit service leadership relate to psychological health and service performance and (b) whether thriving at work and psychological health serially mediate the relationships between the two contextual antecedents and service performance. Our findings revealed that experienced service‐oriented HPWS and unit service leadership related to service performance but indirectly through thriving at work. However, experienced service‐oriented HPWS but not unit service leadership related to psychological health through thriving at work. Furthermore, thriving at work and psychological health serially mediated the relationship between experienced service‐oriented HPWS (but not unit service leadership) and service performance.     

Tourism and employment in the Gambia

In addition to providing formal wage labor in hotels, airports, and the service infrastructure, tourism is said to provide possibilities for independent indigenous enterprise in handicrafts, entertainment, transport, through which the Gambians may, in effect, economically “lift themselves up by their bootstraps.” Such is the theory. This paper analyzes the actual employment possibilities in The Gambia provided by its recent tourism investment. From the findings of an economic survey the author concludes that hopes of economic development being catalyzed by tourism are unfounded and misleading. This conclusion is supported by a structural analysis and a characterization of the tourist industry in The Gambia by an investigation into the economic forces at work in the country, and by direct observations made by informants and the author concerning the impact tourism has made in spheres non-economic: the moral, the social, and the family.