Abnormal Returns from Takeover Prediction Modelling: Challenges and Suggested Investment Strategies

While takeover targets earn significant abnormal returns, studies tend to find no abnormal returns from investing in predicted takeover targets. In this study, we show that the difficulty of correctly identifying targets ex ante does not fully explain the below‐expected returns to target portfolios. Target prediction models’ inability to optimally time impending takeovers, by taking account of pre‐bid target underperformance and the anticipation of potential targets by other market participants, diminishes but does not eliminate the potential profitability of investing in predicted targets. Importantly, we find that target portfolios are predisposed to underperform, as targets and distressed firms share common firm characteristics, resulting in the misclassification of a disproportionately high number of distressed firms as potential targets. We show that this problem can be mitigated, and significant risk‐adjusted returns can be earned, by screening firms in target portfolios for size, leverage and liquidity.     

Behaviours and entrepreneurial intention: Empirical findings about secondary students

This paper aims to identify some factors that may be explaining differences among secondary students in start-up intentions. For that, the study develops an entrepreneurial intention model sustained by the use of Azjen’s Theory of Planned Behaviour (TBP). Using a sample of students aged between 14 and 15 years old, a questionnaire based on the Li?án and Chen’s Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire was administrated. The purpose is to test a model of entrepreneurial intention using structural equations. The findings point that TPB is an appropriate tool to model the development of entrepreneurial intention through pedagogical processes and learning contexts. The education and training should centre itself much more in changing personal attitudes than in knowledge. Moreover, it is desirable that an entrepreneurship educational programme could contribute to the development of competences related to entrepreneurship, social and civic skills, and cultural awareness.     

Effect of Diversity of Large Wildlife Species on Financial Benefits to Local Communities in Northwest Namibia

There exist few quantitative assessments of the relationship between biodiversity per se and economic benefits at scales that are relevant for conservation. Similarly, the merits of Community-Based Natural Resource Management programs for both wildlife and people are contested. Here, we harness two databases, on wildlife surveys and financial benefits, to address these issues for communal conservancies in northwest Namibia. We use ordination methods to characterize the diversity and stability of large wildlife assemblages on conservancies, and demonstrate that diversity (but not stability) is an important explanator of conservancy financial benefits. Our results indicate that for this area of Namibia, biodiversity, as represented by large wildlife assemblages, has an important, positive effect on the tangible financial benefits that people derive from conservation programs.     

Corporate Governance and Firm Value: The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility

This study investigates the effects of internal and external corporate governance and monitoring mechanisms on the choice of corporate social responsibility (CSR) engagement and the value of firms engaging in CSR activities. The study finds the CSR choice is positively associated with the internal and external corporate governance and monitoring mechanisms, including board leadership, board independence, institutional ownership, analyst following, and anti- takeover provisions, after controlling for various firm characteristics. After correcting for endogeneity and simultaneity issues, the results show that CSR engagement positively influences firm value measured by industry-adjusted Tobin’s q. We find that the impact of analyst following for firms that engage in CSR on firm value is strongly positive, while the board leadership, board independence, blockholders’ ownership, and institutional ownership play a relatively weaker role in enhancing firm value. Furthermore, we find that CSR activities that address internal social enhancement within the firm, such as employees diversity, firm relationship with its employees, and product quality, enhance the value of firm more than other CSR subcategories for broader external social enhancement such as community relation and environmental concerns.     

Disaggregating and reaggregating work: Workers,management and the struggle over creating coherency and purpose in a context of work degradation

The article argues that whilst there is a growing sense of degradation and worsening conditions (disaggregation) of work in the cleaning sector in general, there are some important contradictions which require complex organisational responses. In the main, there is a growing sense of isolation in this work, yet also a growing perception of autonomy and workers having to use discretion in new and challenging ways. This article focuses on these issues and management responses to reaggregate the nature of such work, creating new forms of identity and activities intended to enhance (or address) the levels of stability and sustainability at work as well as in operational processes. This management conundrum means that they need to deal with a range of job‐related, skill‐oriented worker learning and also representation issues. These responses bring to the fore the contested nature of such forms of work and how they are changing.     

Outsourcing with debt financing

This paper investigates the effect of capital structure on a firm’s choice between vertical integration and outsourcing. We model the production decision in a Principal-Agent framework and show that suppliers use debt as a strategic instrument to collect the surplus from outsourcing as their wealth constraint or limited liability ensures them more attractive compensation schemes. Investigating the buyer’s capital structure, we find that outsourcing with risky debt is more likely to occur for high values of the outsourcing surplus.     

Under What Conditions Is an Insurance Guaranty Fund Beneficial for Policyholders?

In this article, we derive conditions in an imperfect market setting, under which the introduction of a self‐supporting insurance guaranty fund improves the position of the policyholders. When a guaranty fund is advantageous given homogeneous firms in the market, all policyholders benefit from it to the same extent, if they have the same underlying risk preferences and are charged identical premiums. In a more realistic heterogeneous setting, the introduction of an insurance guaranty fund is in general no longer beneficial for all policyholders in the same manner. Hence, systematic wealth transfers take place between the policyholders of different insurance companies. As a possible solution, and in order to counteract this effect, we introduce a framework for utility‐based fund charges.     

The Internationalization of Spanish- and Portuguese-Speaking Banks

This article investigates which variables affect the location choice of banks from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries in their process of internationalization. The article compares the differences in these variables for public and private banks. The sample consists of 141 banks operating in 58 countries. Results show that internationalization is undertaken by the largest banks, which preferably choose countries with similar language, close to the home country, and with the most opportunity for growth. Additionally, the effects of certain explanatory variables on the probability of expanding to a given country are different for public and private banks.     

The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONES: A SURVEY OF THE LITERATURE

This work selectively reviews the literature on exchange rate target zones and their theoretical and empirical methodologies and examines whether they can be used to clarify to what extent this type of exchange rate regime could contribute to greater exchange rate stability. We discuss the main contributions of the first and second generations of exchange rate target zone models. In an attempt to reconcile the poor empirical performance of the Krugman model with the reality of exchange rate target zone regimes, this line of research integrates target zones with alternative underlying economic models, such as imperfect credibility, intra‐marginal interventions and sticky price models. It was thus possible to understand the correlations observed between the exchange rate, its fundamentals determinants and the interest rate differential, and to explain the fact that the statistical distribution of the exchange rate is hump shaped rather than U shaped. This implies that the initial emphasis of target zone models on nonlinearities, ‘honeymoon effect’, ‘smooth pasting’ and marginal interventions has vanished. Exchange rate target zones are better described as similar to managed floating regimes with intra‐marginal interventions, with some marginal interventions when the exchange rate reaches the edges of the floating band.