When was the U.S. housing downturn predictable? A comparison of univariate forecasting methods

This paper uses three classes of univariate time series techniques (ARIMA type models, switching regression models, and state-space/structural time series models) to forecast, on an ex post basis, the downturn in U.S. housing prices starting around 2006. The performance of the techniques is compared within each class and across classes by out-of-sample forecasts for a number of different forecast points prior to and during the downturn. Most forecasting models are able to predict a downturn in future home prices by mid 2006. Some state-space models can predict an impending downturn as early as June 2005. State-space/structural time series models tend to produce the most accurate forecasts, although they are not necessarily the models with the best in-sample fit.     

Credit constraints and margins of import: first evidence for German manufacturing enterprises

This study uses tailor-made enterprise-level data for 2008–2010 from various sources for firms from manufacturing industries to test for the link between credit constraints, measured by a credit rating score provided by a leading credit rating agency, and imports in Germany for the first time. We find empirical evidence that a better credit rating score is positively related to extensive margins of import – firms with a better score have a higher probability to import, they import more goods and they source from more countries of origin. The intensive margin of imports – the share of imports in total sales – is found not to be related to credit constraints.     

Rekommunalisierung versus Neukonzessionierung der Energieversorgung

The current trend back to municipal utilities (??remunicipalisation??) in the German energy system shows very different approaches and variants in the real cases. Converting the distribution network from privately-owned distribution companies to municipally-owned entities often forms the starting point of such restructuring processes. Ecological or regional development motivations are at the forefront of public debates. The authors emphasize the importance of energy economic aspects of this problem. Advantages and disadvantages of remunicipalisation projects depend strongly on the specific regional circumstances. Important factors are the potentials for cooperation and expansion of the business activities. Moreover, the price which has to be paid for taking over the network infrastructure has to be taken into account as the decisive parameter: The price for buying or renting the network and the possible revenues on the backdrop of incentive-based regulation define the economic viability for the municipality. Many of the often heard arguments pro remunicipalisation, such as the objective of decentralized energy supply, labour effects and municipal contributions to climate protection, do not fully convince in the end; as well the fiscal status of many municipalities in Germany is severe. Nonetheless remunicipalisation must not be rejected in general because there is no general proof for welfare losses resulting from these projects. In fact, it depends mainly on local influencing factors to what extent municipalities should be or become active in the field of energy supply. Among the most important aspects the preferences of the citizens, the environmental and political aims of the municipality (so far they are defined) and the available resources of the municipal decision making persons and bodies must be mentioned. However, in economic terms the leeway for the municipality remains restricted by the costs of operating the network and tariff regulation.     

Can France meet the Maastricht Criteria? slower economic growth poses new challenges to economic policy makers

Conclusion With its 1996 budget the French government has all but completely abandoned its election promises. At the same time, in economic policy terms it has gained credibility amongst its partners in the EU. Following the announcement of the fiscal consolidation measures the franc initially strengthened and the central bank was able to reduce short-term interest rates slightly for the first time since July 1994. There is still a chance that France will be able to meet the criteria for joining European Economic and Monetary Union if the country proves able to counter the current trend towards a weakening of economic growth in 1996 and 1997. Although the recent wave of strikes indicates that the cutbacks have gone as far as was possible, fiscal policy is not in a position to stimulate demand if it is to avoid undermining the aim of meeting the 3% criterion at the appointed time. This makes a perceptible cut in real interest rates all the more necessary. This in turn requires a substantial stimulus by the monetary authorities, and this is only conceivable within the framework of concerted action at European level.     

How Big is the Crowding-Out Effect of User Fees in the Rural Areas of Ethiopia? Implications for Equity and Resources Mobilization

Using a nested multinomial logit model, this study investigates the demand “reduction” and “diversion” effects of user fees in rural areas of Ethiopia. The results reveal that an increase in user fees of public clinics, which are the most widely used alternative, can have a significant demand reduction effect on the poorest of the poor. This implies that despite cost recovery has been advocated as an alternative means of health care financing in most of the developing world, increasing user fees may drive the poorest segment of the population out of the health care market unless some protective measures are taken.     

AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH TO EXPLAINING BARGAINING BEHAVIOUR IN SIMPLE SEQUENTIAL GAMES

Abstract.  For simple sequential games, the payoff structure has certain bargaining power implication. Intuitively, certain actions may have the effect of the carrot and the stick as sanctioning means. Fair outcomes can be alternatively viewed as the consequence of their presence. Experimental data on various games are used to test the hypothesis of carrot and stick behaviour. We show that our stick and carrot heuristic neatly captures puzzling phenomena in a wide class of simple sequential games. The results support the view that punishing subjects are not worse off than myopic pay-off maximizers as long as subjects are involved in a repeated strangers scheme.