The link between inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from G7 countries

In this paper we adopt the Markov-switching heteroscedasticity model to analyse the inflation series for G7 countries and examine the interaction between inflation rate and its uncertainty over both the short- and long-run. It is found that the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty depends on whether the shock is permanent or transitory. The relationship also differs from country to country. High uncertainty about long-run inflation is associated with a significant positive shift in inflation for Canada, Germany, and Japan. High uncertainty about short-run inflation is associated with a significant positive shift in inflation for Germany and USA, and a significant negative shift in inflation for Canada. The modelling approach employed in this paper is empirically supported by various diagnostics including the Vuong test. We also derive the two components of the variance of inflation forecast for a particular forecast horizon. It is found that the inflation uncertainty increases at all horizons in the middle of 1970s and return to the low level in the middle of 1980s.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: October 2003We would like to thank three anonymous referees for many helpful comments and suggestions.     

Using FTE and RVU performance measures to assess financial viability of academic nurse-managed centers

Financial performance measures are essential to improve the fiscal management of academic nurse-managed centers (ANMCs). Measures are compared among six ANMCs in a consortium and against an external, self-sustainable, profitable ANMC and national data for family practice physicians. Performance measures help identify a center's strengths and weaknesses facilitating the development of strategies aimed at a variety of targets (business practices related to revenue and costs) to improve financial viability. Using a variety of financial performance measures to inform decision making will aid ANMCs in keeping their doors open for business.     

Policy matters. The long run effects of aggregate demand and mark-up shocks on the Italian unemployment rate

This paper estimates a VAR including labor productivity, real wage and unemployment rate, to identify the dynamic effects of technology, demand, and mark-up shocks, respectively, on the Italian labor market. Identification is achieved by imposing recursive restrictions on the matrix of long run multipliers. Our results show that both mark up and aggregate demand shocks permanently reduce the unemployment rate. Finally, technology shocks do not significantly affect the unemployment rate in the long run. These findings convey important policy implications: expansionary aggregate demand and deregulation policies reducing the mark up permanently decrease the Italian unemployment rate.Jel classification: C32, E32, J29This paper has been produced as part of a CEPR Research Network on New Approaches to the Study of Economic Fluctuations. We would like to thank Marcello DAmato, Mario Forni, Marco Lippi and Antonio Ribba for useful comments. We are also grateful to Bernd Sussmuth for pointing out to us several significant improvements to the paper.First version received: November 2001/Final version received: October 2002     

The telecoms boom and bust 1996-2003 and the role of financial markets

Financial crises are still as much a part of the modern, information-and-communication-technology-based (ICT) economy as they were of previous economies. Why are we apparently unable to learn lessons from the past and avoid what Charles Kindleberger (2000) has called manias, panics and crashes? Why is it that our sophisticated stock of information, made readily and relatively cheaply available to us by our investment in ICTs, and our abundant theories and models, have not allowed us to steer clear of these financial excesses? The aim of this paper is to highlight some of the processes and mechanisms that have played a significant role in causing the Telecoms Boom and Bust, 1996-2003. The question of whether anything can be done about these processes and mechanisms in order to try and modify such financial excesses in the future is taken up in the conclusion.JEL Classification: A12, D8, E3, G1, L63, L96, N2, O30The author would like to acknowledge, without implicating, the helpful discussion with Richard Burns, Fred Bleakley and others who commented on an earlier version of this paper at Institutional Investors European Institute meeting in Berlin in March 2003, and with Stan Metcalfe on other occasions. In addition, thanks are due to many friends in NTT and InfoCom who assisted my learning about the Telecoms Industry and its dynamics.     

Left-side Relatively Weak Increases in Risk and Their Comparative Statics

This paper proposes a new concept, a left-side relatively weak increase in risk (L-RWIR) order, that extends the definition of a relatively weak increase in risk (RWIR) order. We show that, for the class of linear payoffs, one can obtain an appealing comparative statics result for L-RWIR shifts imposing additional restrictions on risk preferences of a risk-averse decision maker.JEL classification: D81.revised version received October 10, 2003Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee for insightful comments and useful suggestions.     

Ambiguous Social Welfare Effects of Price Regulation Under Imperfect Competition

Conventional wisdom is that a binding price ceiling increases output and so increases social welfare if imposed on an imperfectly competitive market. However, this paper shows that a price ceiling can be harmful to social welfare even though it increases industry output and consumer surplus. This model can be applied to the pharmaceutical industry under price control in many countries, e.g., U.K., Canada, Germany and Japan.     

Learning-by-doing versus Schooling in a Model of Endogenous Growth

A two sector model of learning-by-doing measured by means of production aggregated over time and of human capital accumulation in a schooling sector is presented. Time utilization is rival between schooling and learning-by-doing. Depending on the sum of elasticities of the accumulated factors (i.e., of production experience and educational human capital) in both sectors, a situation with or without endogenous growth results. Dynamic optimization of the choice between leisure and working and of the division of human capital between education and production is executed. Transitional dynamics are analyzed for a Cobb-Douglas example and a numerical simulation is performed.JEL classification: C61, D90, O41.Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Eric C. Meyer and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. The usual caveats apply.revised version received November 23, 2003     

Asset price volatility and trading volume with rational beliefs

Summary. This paper develops a model of speculative trading in a large economy with a continuum of investors. In our model the investors are assumed to have diverse beliefs which are rational in the sense of being compatible with observed data. We demonstrate the existence of price amplification effects and show that the equilibrium prices can be higher or lower than the rational expectation equilibrium price. It is also shown that trading volume is positively related to the directions of price changes. Moreover, we study how asset price volatility and trading volume are influenced by belief structures, short selling constraints and the amount of fund available for investment.Received: 23 January 2003, Revised: 30 April 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D84, G12.We are grateful to Professors Mordecai Kurz, Kenneth Arrow, Kenneth Judd, Carsten Nielsen, Maurizio Motolese, Mark Garmaise, Jean-Michel Grandmont, Peter Hammond, Karl Shell, Jan Werner and participants of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET) Conference and Stanford Institute of Theoretical Economics (SITE) Conference for many helpful suggestions. Correspondence to: H.-M. Wu     

Non-convex Technologies and Cost Functions: Definitions,Duality and Nonparametric Tests of Convexity

This contribution is the first systematic attempt to develop a series of nonparametric, deterministic technologies and cost functions without maintaining convexity. Specifically, we introduce returns to scale assumptions into an existing non-convex technology and, dual to these technologies, define non-convex cost functions that are never lower than their convex counterparts. Both non-convex technologies and cost functions (total, ray-average and marginal) are characterized by closed form expressions. Furthermore, a local duality result is established between a local cost function and the input distance function. Finally, nonparametric goodness-of-fit tests for convexity are developed as a first step towards making it a statistically testable hypothesis. An erratum to this article is available at .