Fundamentals versus external shocks: Brazil's growing exposure to currency crises

While financial globalization does not lack theoretical economic merit, the more far-reaching practical consequences of this phenomenon are often not fully appreciated from the vantage point of North America or the European Union. In particular, globalization can make it more difficult for emerging economies to achieve macroeconomic stabilization. This is especially true if the countries in question have chosen the vehicle of pegged exchange rates as an important element of domestic anti-inflation policy. The chief macroeconomic difficulties for emerging economies in a world of volatile capital flows can include a loss of monetary control, a real appreciation of the domestic currency, and a worsening of economic fundamentals leading to damaging currency crises. This paper concentrates on the recent experience of Brazil as illustrative of the abject plight faced by many developing countries attempting to secure economic stabilization against the background of the present globalized international economy.This paper has benefitted from discussion with participants of the Forty-Sixth International Atlantic Economic Conference, Boston, MA, October 8–11, 1998.     

Currency crises in Brazil: the role of the fundamentals and the rumours

The paper aims at identification of the main explanatory factors of the currency crises in Brazil. Following Choueiri and Kaminsky (1997) a VAR monetary model is used and the historical decomposition procedure developed by Sims (1980) to evaluate the importance of the ‘fundamentals’ represented by fiscal/monetary and exchange-rate policies, and the ‘external factors’ represented by foreign interest rates and contagious effects. The main results show the importance of the exchange-rate management on the overall period and the contagious effects more recently to explain the Brazilian currency crises.     

NONPARAMETRIC MODELS OF FINANCIAL LEVERAGE DECISIONS

This paper applies nonparametric decision tree models to the analysis of financial leverage decisions. This approach presents three appealing features: (i) the relationship between leverage and explanatory variables is not predetermined but is derived from information provided by the data, (ii) the models respect the fractional nature of leverage ratios, and (iii) each covariate is allowed to influence in different ways the financial leverage decisions of firms automatically assigned to different groups. Based on a data set of Portuguese firms, decision trees are used to tackle both classification (the decision to issue debt) and regression (the decision on the amount of debt to be issued, conditional on using debt) problems. It is found that: (i) two‐part models are the most appropriate specification for explaining the overall amount of debt used by firms, (ii) there are no drastic differences between the results produced by tree and parametric models, although some divergences may arise, and (iii) tree models suggest relationships between covariates and leverage that parametric models fail to capture, especially when the sample size is small.     

Wicksell, Lindahl and the Theory of Public Goods

Wicksell's and Lindahl's ideas on public goods and decisions are reviewed in light of later developments in the theoretical economics literature. I begin by discussing their normative ideals, in particular the notion of justness, and the sources of the difficulties in reaching them. Wicksell's and Lindahl's ideal states, as well as the obstacles that they perceive, are compared to more recent views on free riding and on the behavior of elected representatives. Their views on political bargaining are then related to later concepts, in particular to the core of the economy.     

Should special agricultural safeguard be ignored? An evaluation for dairy trade

This study measured the impact of special agricultural safeguards (SSG) on dairy products imports by the US and Japan. It was observed that dairy products have been the most affected by this protectionist measures, and that these countries are relevant importers that impose SSG. The tariff lines subject to SSG were selected, and the period of analysis was from 1995 to 2015. The results showed that the impact of SSG applied by the US was much higher than for Japan. The overall estimated value of imports that did not happen due to the application of SSGs was approximately USD 2 billion. Specifically for the Brazilian economy, the condensed milk not exported to the US due to SSG applied cost the country BRL 345 million in GDP value and almost 4.5 thousand jobs. These results might be underestimating these effects, since the SSG tariff was not subject to calculation in several years.     

Feasible bias-corrected OLS, within-groups, and first-differences estimators for typical micro and macro AR(1) panel data models

In this paper we suggest several alternative ways of constructing feasible bias-corrected (FBC) pooled least squares, within-groups, and first-differences estimators for AR(1) panel data models. In a Monte Carlo simulation study involving data with the qualities normally encountered by both microeconomists and macroeconomists we found that the estimators proposed seem to possess better finite sample properties than the GMM estimators usually employed in this setting: most FBC estimators are unbiased, even when the time series is highly persistent, display less variability, and are not affected by the relative magnitude of the variances for the individual effect and the idiosyncratic error.     

The "Flypaper Effect" Is Not an Anomaly

The empirical nonequivalence between grants by a central government and increases in community income (the "flypaper effect") has been considered anomalous. But the "anomaly" label is naïve: in a multiconsumer community, equivalence demands an unlikely match of tax rules and income-growth patterns.
We go beyond the single-policy-variable, median-voter model and apply Roemer's concept of Party Unanimity Nash Equilibrium, which allows for party competition in multidimensional policy spaces. We compute the equilibria for a model with two independent policy variables (intercept and slope of an affine tax schedule) and obtain numerical values that agree with the empirical literature.     

Green bonds,sustainable development and environmental policy in the European Union carbon market

This study assesses the non-linear effects of green bonds, conventional bonds and energy commodities on the behaviour of the cap-and-trade European Union carbon market (European Union Emissions Trading System [EU-ETS]). By estimating four models, using Markov-switching (MS) econometric methodology, non-linearities are confirmed in dynamic behaviours, observing in the global calculation a positive effect of green bonds (S&P Green and Sol Green) on the carbon market, in regimes of both high and low volatility, whereas conventional bonds (S&P Agg) and energy commodities (DJCI En) contribute to a decrease in the carbon market in regimes of high volatility. The relevance of green bonds is underlined in determining the behaviour of the carbon market, besides observing greater persistence of the low volatility regime. These results allow both investors and fund managers to implement strategies in different volatility or economic activity contexts through a diversified portfolio and green/climate structure.     

Incentive schemes for executive officers when forecasts matter

This paper develops a new perspective on results‐based incentive schemes for non‐CEO managers. It shows that it is possible to establish incentive schemes that take into account both the actual output obtained and the forecast figure previously established as a target, without the negative consequences derived from the perverse loop of hiding‐ratchet effects. A general linear two‐staged scheme is proposed. In addition, relevant properties of this incentive system are stated that show how principals (corporate management) may determine the expected forecasting behavior of agents (executive officers) by suitably choosing the scheme parameters according to a simple set of rules. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.