Evaluating the risk premium in the U.S.A. natural gas market: evidence from low-price regime

In recent years, the U.S.A. natural gas market has seen enormous changes. The expectations of abundant supply of shale gas and the slow U.S.A. economic recovery have pushed gas prices below US$ 4 MMBtu. Although shale gas is a new promising source of unconventional energy, investors face uncertain investment plans. In this study, we investigate the risk premium by comparing behaviour before and after the change point in agents risk perception. Unlike traditional empirical research on risk premium, we use the parametric, two-factor model of Schwartz and Smith (2000) to evaluate the implied risk premium term structure from futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). We compare our findings with other empirical results and find that the change point lies at the beginning of the low-price regime. When we compare periods before and after the change point, we observe that the risk premium changed, not only in sign, but also in magnitude.     

Government size,composition of public expenditure,and economic development

This paper analyzes the effects of government size and of the composition of public expenditure on economic development. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models, on a sample covering up to 156 countries and 5-year periods from 1980 to 2010, we find that government size as a percentage of GDP has a quadratic (inverted U-shaped) effect on the growth rate of the Human Development Index (HDI). This effect is especially pronounced in developed and high-income countries. We also find that the composition of public expenditure affects development, with the share of five subcomponents exhibiting nonlinear relationships with HDI growth.     

Cointegration tests under multiple regime shifts: An application to the stock price–dividend relationship

We examine the properties of several residual-based cointegration tests when long-run parameters are subject to multiple shifts driven by an unobservable Markov process. Unlike earlier study, which considered one-off deterministic breaks, our approach has the advantage of allowing for an unspecified number of stochastic breaks. We illustrate this issue by exploring the possibility of Markov switching cointegration in the stock price-dividend relationship and showing that this case is empirically relevant. Our subsequent Monte Carlo analysis reveals that standard cointegration tests are generally reliable, their performance often being robust for a number of plausible regime shift parameterizations.     

Should special agricultural safeguard be ignored? An evaluation for dairy trade

This study measured the impact of special agricultural safeguards (SSG) on dairy products imports by the US and Japan. It was observed that dairy products have been the most affected by this protectionist measures, and that these countries are relevant importers that impose SSG. The tariff lines subject to SSG were selected, and the period of analysis was from 1995 to 2015. The results showed that the impact of SSG applied by the US was much higher than for Japan. The overall estimated value of imports that did not happen due to the application of SSGs was approximately USD 2 billion. Specifically for the Brazilian economy, the condensed milk not exported to the US due to SSG applied cost the country BRL 345 million in GDP value and almost 4.5 thousand jobs. These results might be underestimating these effects, since the SSG tariff was not subject to calculation in several years.     

Feasible bias-corrected OLS, within-groups, and first-differences estimators for typical micro and macro AR(1) panel data models

In this paper we suggest several alternative ways of constructing feasible bias-corrected (FBC) pooled least squares, within-groups, and first-differences estimators for AR(1) panel data models. In a Monte Carlo simulation study involving data with the qualities normally encountered by both microeconomists and macroeconomists we found that the estimators proposed seem to possess better finite sample properties than the GMM estimators usually employed in this setting: most FBC estimators are unbiased, even when the time series is highly persistent, display less variability, and are not affected by the relative magnitude of the variances for the individual effect and the idiosyncratic error.     

Dispersion in wage premiums and firm performance

Using matched employer–employee panel data, we estimate measures of pay dispersion per firm-year that take into account both firm and worker unobserved heterogeneity. Unlike research that controls only for differences in observables, we find that within-firm pay inequality is significantly associated to lower firm performance.     

A model of innovation and learning with involuntary spillovers and absorptive capacity

We develop a model of innovation and learning that incorporates explicitly the need for a firm to conduct its own research and development (R&D) in order to realize involuntary spillovers from other firms’ R&D activity and the development of absorptive capacity of research firms over time. The conclusions of the model follow directly from the functional forms that are used to describe the generation and absorption of technological knowledge. The first proposition formally characterizes the steady-state rate of growth of technology for the model. The analysis also shows how some of the key features of two distinct, pure modes of organization of the production of new knowledge, the R&D model and the new localized knowledge model, are implied by our model by simply drastically changing the relative magnitude of two exogenous parameters: the ease of learning and the pace of knowledge advance. The second proposition formally characterizes the connections implied by the model between involuntary spillovers and absorptive capacity. Analysis of the long-term interactions between involuntary spillovers of knowledge and absorptive capacity provides the essential insights into an understanding of the elements of a self-sustained process of endogenous growth. The third and last formal proposition of this paper accommodates firm-level arguments and the crucial role of a firm's absorptive capacity in taking advantage of its location in clusters, as implied by the theoretical model.     

The knowledge multiplier

The paper develops a formal model of external knowledge and identifies the role of knowledge multipliers. Social interactions and knowledge multipliers play a crucial role in determining the rate of technological change. The analytical identification of the knowledge multiplier expression constitutes a key step in the appreciation of the crucial role of knowledge interactions. First, social considerations endogenously change the knowledge production function of each firm. The knowledge multiplier is the specific mechanism by means of which external knowledge contributes to enhance the innovative capacity of each firm. The production function of knowledge shows that the larger the knowledge multiplier is the stronger are the cumulative positive effects of external knowledge on the generation of new knowledge. Second, social considerations explain the long-run dynamics of innovation. Social reinforcement and the knowledge multiplier determine the rise or fall in the rate of accumulation of technological knowledge.     

Limits on the Use of Public Space and Consumer Tactics: A Study on Urban Cycling

Although public space is supposed to be democratic and accessible to all, in reality, such access is inegalitarian and exclusionary. The research aims, therefore, to understand how public space that reflects the imposition of interests of dominant ideologies affects the consumption practices of nondominant ideologies. The qualitative research data were collected in the context of urban cycling through in-depth interviews and observation and are analyzed using a hermeneutical approach. The research explains that, in order to deal with the limits of public space use, these consumers use tactics involving (1) disputes for space, (2) disorganized occupation, and (3) transgressive practices; moreover, there is an overlapping relationship between the agency of consumers and public space.