Non-monetary dimensions of well-being in South Africa, 1993–2004: A post-apartheid dividend?

Existing studies on shifts in income welfare in South Africa since the demise of apartheid suggest that income inequality increased, while headcount poverty rates declined since 2000, after some evidence of an increase or no change in poverty in the 1995–2000 and 1996–2001 periods. This study provides an analysis of the shifts in non-income welfare that have occurred in South Africa between 1993 and 2004. We use factor analysis to construct an asset index as a measure of non-income-based welfare. Variables reflecting household access to a range of services and assets are used in the construction of the index. Significantly different results emerge when non-income welfare shifts are considered: we show statistically significant decreases in the headcount asset poverty rates between 1993 and 2004 across a range of covariates. Finally, asset inequality decreased significantly between 1993 and 2004 – in stark contrast to results based on consumption data.     

Where firms choose to disclose voluntary environmental information

Corporate environmental performance is of increasing importance to investors, public policy makers and the general public. Firms disclose environmental information (mostly) voluntarily in their annual reports and on their websites. These disclosures are important, because they provide environmental performance information and influence capital markets. We compare environmental disclosure in annual reports and on websites with a long-term (bad) and a short-term (crisis) environmental performance measure. We find evidence to support our hypotheses that different levels of environmental disclosure are made in annual reports and on websites under different conditions. More specifically, firms disclose more environmental information on their websites when faced with an environmental crisis and more in their annual reports when they have a bad environmental reputation.     

Repeated audit controls

An important task of auditors is to check whether recorded values are correct. From the number (or total) of the errors found in a sample, upper confidence limits for the fraction (or total) of the errors in the population are calculated by standard methods.
Even auditors are human, however, and may make mistakes: errors may remain unnoticed. As administrative rules and regulations are becoming more and more complicated, this kind of auditors' mistakes tends to occur more frequently. Hence, there is an increasing need to check the auditing process itself. This can be achieved by checking a subsample of audited values a second time, now by an error-free supervisor.
This paper investigates the consequences of the (possible) occurrence of errors in this subsample. A simple and analytically attractive model is presented for the number of errors found in this double inspection scheme. Maximum likelihood estimators are derived for the population fraction of errors and the probability of an error remaining unnoticed. Based on that, an exact upper confidence limit for the population fraction of errors is calculated, treating the probability of an unnoticed error as a nuisance parameter. Our method was originally developed during a recent Dutch case study: in a subsample of already audited values one additional error was found by the supervisor. It is shown that, as a consequence, the upper confidence limit is increased very sizeably.     

Assessing housing management in terms of development objectives

This article reports on a research project aimed at assessing whether a particular management process of housing delivery correlates with an improvement or reduction in the state of development of housing recipients. The construct ‘state of development’ refers to the extent to which recipients have the capacity and power to deal with the challenges of a dynamic environment and utilise its opportunities in a responsible and sustainable manner. ‘Housing management’ refers to the execution of management functions to process housing inputs into outputs. The authors explored the correlation between these two variables in a case study involving the Delft housing project in Cape Town. They measured indicators using questionnaires, an analysis of project data, and by observing and evaluating the environments of experimental group members. The results indicated that the extent of the appropriateness of housing management caused a corresponding change in the state of development of housing recipients.     

Predicting early adoption of successive video player generations

Early adopters play an important role in the innovation diffusion process. Over the past decades, many factors have been identified as predictors for early adoption of innovations. Less attention has been paid to the relationship between the early adoption of one generation of a specific product and the early adoption of successive product generations. This paper analyzes how early adoption of a new product generation depends on ownership, purchase experience and adoption times for previous generations of the same product. The paper develops predictive models of early adoption for four generations of video player products, based on a survey among 815 Australian consumers. The model allows the testing of various hypotheses. It is shown that previous generation variables outperform conventional socio-demographic and psychographic variables in predicting early adoption but also that the two variable types complement each other. The best predicting models include both previous generation and socio/psychographic variables. It is concluded that previous generation models have substantial merits for new product forecasting as they are more parsimonious than conventional models and the data required to estimate them is relatively easy to obtain.     

Random incentive systems in a dynamic choice experiment

Experiments frequently use a random incentive system (RIS), where only tasks that are randomly selected at the end of the experiment are for real. The most common type pays every subject one out of her multiple tasks (within-subjects randomization). Recently, another type has become popular, where a subset of subjects is randomly selected, and only these subjects receive one real payment (between-subjects randomization). In earlier tests with simple, static tasks, RISs performed well. The present study investigates RISs in a more complex, dynamic choice experiment. We find that between-subjects randomization reduces risk aversion. While within-subjects randomization delivers unbiased measurements of risk aversion, it does not eliminate carry-over effects from previous tasks. Both types generate an increase in subjects’ error rates. These results suggest that caution is warranted when applying RISs to more complex and dynamic tasks.     

“Generalized Pareto Fit to the Society of Actuaries’ Large Claims Database,” Ana C. Cebrián,Michel Denuit,and Philippe Lambert,July 2003

Abstract

We consider the issue of modeling the latent or hidden exposure occurring through either incomplete data or an unobserved underlying risk factor. We use the celebrated expectationmaximization (EM) algorithm as a convenient tool in detecting latent (unobserved) risks in finite mixture models of claim severity and in problems where data imputation is needed. We provide examples of applicability of the methodology based on real-life auto injury claim data and compare, when possible, the accuracy of our methods with that of standard techniques. Sample data and an EM algorithm program are included to allow readers to experiment with the EM methodology themselves.     

Simon Kuipers: An Economist in Search of Rigour and Relevance

At the end of 1997 and after twenty-five years of duty, Professor Simon Kuipers retired as managing editor of De Economist. As a token of indebtedness and gratitude, this article reviews Kuipers' written work. The article focuses on two topics that dominate Kuipers' endeavours. First, his contributions to macroeconomic theory, with particular emphasis on his (neo-)Keynesian approach are examined. Second, Kuipers' contributions to actual monetary and economic policy are discussed, emphasis being placed on his empirical work.